Lot 2 Keasley Ln

Ruckersville, VA 22973

$129,000F

3 bd · 3.5 ba · 3,525 sqft · Built 2024 · SingleFamily · Active · 297 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,217/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$4,395
• Tax + insurance: −$1,463
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$466
• Net cashflow: $-4,106/mo
• Annual: $-49,274/yr
• Cap rate: 0.51%
• Cash-on-cash: -20.66%
• DSCR: 0.08
• 1% rule: 0.26%
• Cash to close: $234,645

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/3.5-bath single-family listed at $129k. Condition is rated poor.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-4k ($-49k/yr) — negative.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $129k).
• It's been on market 297 days — a 12% lower offer ($114k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $114k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $6k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $25k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#318 in VA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A, housing A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Greene County Public School District (town): math 40% / reading 64% proficiency, ranked #88 of 131 in VA (top 67%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Watch-outs: property tax is 9.7% of price; flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Market conditions: 83 active listings in the ZIP; 204 units permitted in Greene County in 2024 (34 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Greene County population projected at +6% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $71k (35%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 0.5% vs local median 4.7% in Ruckersville — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 297 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
• Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?

Repairs flagged (vision-AI assessment)

• Major: roof — The roof is partially collapsed and missing
• Major: exterior walls — The structure is made of shipping containers with visible damage
• Major: foundation — The structure appears unstable and the foundation is not visible