Lot 2 Keasley Ln · Ruckersville, VA 22973

$129,000

3 bd · 3.5 ba · 3,525 sqft · SingleFamily · 297 Days on market

Built 2024 Poor condition 2.00 ac lot ↓ 30% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.5/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +1.0/5.0
• Cash flow +0.0/30.0
• 1% rule +0.0/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Modern, eco-friendly property perfectly in tune with the Blue Ridge mountain lifestyle. Tucked back on a serene wooded lot, this contemporary container home—set on a permanent foundation—is ready for a buyer with vision. The heavy lifting has already begun: electricity and a private well are in place, the property has been perked, and construction is underway. Now it’s your turn to take the reins and finish the build exactly to your taste. Located just minutes from local conveniences and only 15 minutes from the Swift Run Gap entry point to Shenandoah National Park, this property offers the perfect blend of privacy and accessibility. Whether you envision a modern weekend retreat, a vacation escape, or a unique full-time residence, the setting is ideal for embracing the beauty of the Blue Ridge Mountains. A rare opportunity for those ready to create something truly special—your contemporary container home dream starts here. Taxes are estimated based on the list price. See notes in DOCS for floorplans, features etc. . of this unique property. FireFly is available to connect once property is fully completed.

Key facts

• Private well
• Permanent foundation
• Serene wooded lot

Tags

• SERENE WOODED LOT
• PERMANENT FOUNDATION
• PRIVATE WELL
• CONSTRUCTION UNDERWAY
• 15 MINUTES FROM SWIFT RUN GAP

🏗️ New construction. The $129,000 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $838,017.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/3.5-bath single-family listed at $129k. Condition is rated poor.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-4k ($-49k/yr) — negative.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $129k).
• Recommended offer: $114k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 0.5% vs local median 4.7% in Ruckersville — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#318 in VA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A, housing A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Greene County Public School District (town): math 40% / reading 64% proficiency, ranked #88 of 131 in VA (top 67%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 83 active listings in the ZIP; 204 units permitted in Greene County in 2024 (34 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $6k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $25k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Greene County population projected at +6% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 297 days — a 12% lower offer ($114k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $71k (35%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 9.7% of price; flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $113,520 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 297 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
4. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
5. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
6. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
7. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.26% ✗
• Cap rate: 0.51%
• Cash-on-cash: -20.66%
• DSCR: 0.08
• GRM: 31.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $838,017
• List price: $129,000
• Delta: -84.61%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 2 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -60.5%
• Equity multiple: -0.69×
• Total profit: $-397,246
• Equity at exit: $124,951

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: -1.91×
• Total profit: $-682,369
• Equity at exit: $72,456

Cash invested: $234,645 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 22973

• Home prices YoY: -25.3%
• Active inventory: 83
• Price-to-rent: 4.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,217 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$4,395
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$1,048 /mo · $12,570/yr
• Insurance: −$349
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$466
• Net cashflow: $-4,106

Break-even live

Break-even rent $7,415

Max offer price $243,844

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-3,527	-5% $-3,817	+0% $-4,106	+5% $-4,396	+10% $-4,685
Rent	-10% $-4,281	-5% $-4,194	+0% $-4,106	+5% $-4,019	+10% $-3,931
Rate	-1.0pp $-3,684	-0.5pp $-3,893	base $-4,106	+0.5pp $-4,323	+1.0pp $-4,544

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $209,504
• Closing costs: $25,141
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 26 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $129,000 Active 297 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $129,000 Active 296 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $129,000 Active 295 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   price $129,000 Active 294 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $139,000 Active 294 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $139,000 Active 293 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $139,000 Active 291 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $139,000 Active 290 DOM
9. 2026-06-10
   days on market $139,000 Active 288 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $139,000 Active 287 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $139,000 Active 286 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $139,000 Active 285 DOM
13. 2026-06-05
    days on market $139,000 Active 282 DOM
14. 2026-06-03
    days on market $139,000 Active 281 DOM
15. 2026-06-02
    days on market $139,000 Active 280 DOM
16. 2026-06-01
    days on market $139,000 Active 279 DOM
17. 2026-05-31
    days on market $139,000 Active 278 DOM
18. 2026-05-30
    days on market $139,000 Active 277 DOM
19. 2026-05-20
    price $139,000 1146-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1200 chars)

    Modern, eco-friendly retreat perfectly in tune with the Blue Ridge mountain lifestyle. Tucked back on a serene wooded lot, this contemporary container home—set on a permanent foundation—is ready for a buyer with vision. The heavy lifting has already begun: electricity and a private well are in place, the property has been perked, and construction is underway. Now it’s your turn to take the reins and finish the build exactly to your taste. Located just minutes from local conveniences and only 15 minutes from the Swift Run Gap entry point to Shenandoah National Park, this property offers the perfect blend of privacy and accessibility. Whether you envision a modern weekend retreat, a vacation escape, or a unique full-time residence, the setting is ideal for embracing the beauty of the Blue Ridge Mountains. A rare opportunity for those ready to create something truly special—your contemporary container home dream starts here. Taxes are estimated based on the list price. See notes in DOCS for floorplans, features etc. . of this unique property. (Number of bedrooms/baths are based on builder plans). FireFly is available to connect once property is fully completed.

20. 2026-05-20
    price $139,000 1200-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1200 chars)

    Modern, eco-friendly retreat perfectly in tune with the Blue Ridge mountain lifestyle. Tucked back on a serene wooded lot, this contemporary container home—set on a permanent foundation—is ready for a buyer with vision. The heavy lifting has already begun: electricity and a private well are in place, the property has been perked, and construction is underway. Now it’s your turn to take the reins and finish the build exactly to your taste. Located just minutes from local conveniences and only 15 minutes from the Swift Run Gap entry point to Shenandoah National Park, this property offers the perfect blend of privacy and accessibility. Whether you envision a modern weekend retreat, a vacation escape, or a unique full-time residence, the setting is ideal for embracing the beauty of the Blue Ridge Mountains. A rare opportunity for those ready to create something truly special—your contemporary container home dream starts here. Taxes are estimated based on the list price. See notes in DOCS for floorplans, features etc. . of this unique property. (Number of bedrooms/baths are based on builder plans). FireFly is available to connect once property is fully completed.

21. 2026-05-07
    price $149,000 1200-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1146 chars)

    Modern, eco-friendly property perfectly in tune with the Blue Ridge mountain lifestyle. Tucked back on a serene wooded lot, this contemporary container home—set on a permanent foundation—is ready for a buyer with vision. The heavy lifting has already begun: electricity and a private well are in place, the property has been perked, and construction is underway. Now it’s your turn to take the reins and finish the build exactly to your taste. Located just minutes from local conveniences and only 15 minutes from the Swift Run Gap entry point to Shenandoah National Park, this property offers the perfect blend of privacy and accessibility. Whether you envision a modern weekend retreat, a vacation escape, or a unique full-time residence, the setting is ideal for embracing the beauty of the Blue Ridge Mountains. A rare opportunity for those ready to create something truly special—your contemporary container home dream starts here. Taxes are estimated based on the list price. See notes in DOCS for floorplans, features etc. . of this unique property. FireFly is available to connect once property is fully completed.

22. 2026-05-07
    price $149,000 1146-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1146 chars)

    Modern, eco-friendly property perfectly in tune with the Blue Ridge mountain lifestyle. Tucked back on a serene wooded lot, this contemporary container home—set on a permanent foundation—is ready for a buyer with vision. The heavy lifting has already begun: electricity and a private well are in place, the property has been perked, and construction is underway. Now it’s your turn to take the reins and finish the build exactly to your taste. Located just minutes from local conveniences and only 15 minutes from the Swift Run Gap entry point to Shenandoah National Park, this property offers the perfect blend of privacy and accessibility. Whether you envision a modern weekend retreat, a vacation escape, or a unique full-time residence, the setting is ideal for embracing the beauty of the Blue Ridge Mountains. A rare opportunity for those ready to create something truly special—your contemporary container home dream starts here. Taxes are estimated based on the list price. See notes in DOCS for floorplans, features etc. . of this unique property. FireFly is available to connect once property is fully completed.

23. 2026-04-15
    price $169,000 1146-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1200 chars)

    Modern, eco-friendly retreat perfectly in tune with the Blue Ridge mountain lifestyle. Tucked back on a serene wooded lot, this contemporary container home—set on a permanent foundation—is ready for a buyer with vision. The heavy lifting has already begun: electricity and a private well are in place, the property has been perked, and construction is underway. Now it’s your turn to take the reins and finish the build exactly to your taste. Located just minutes from local conveniences and only 15 minutes from the Swift Run Gap entry point to Shenandoah National Park, this property offers the perfect blend of privacy and accessibility. Whether you envision a modern weekend retreat, a vacation escape, or a unique full-time residence, the setting is ideal for embracing the beauty of the Blue Ridge Mountains. A rare opportunity for those ready to create something truly special—your contemporary container home dream starts here. Taxes are estimated based on the list price. See notes in DOCS for floorplans, features etc. . of this unique property. (Number of bedrooms/baths are based on builder plans). FireFly is available to connect once property is fully completed.

24. 2026-04-15
    price $169,000 1200-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1200 chars)

    Modern, eco-friendly retreat perfectly in tune with the Blue Ridge mountain lifestyle. Tucked back on a serene wooded lot, this contemporary container home—set on a permanent foundation—is ready for a buyer with vision. The heavy lifting has already begun: electricity and a private well are in place, the property has been perked, and construction is underway. Now it’s your turn to take the reins and finish the build exactly to your taste. Located just minutes from local conveniences and only 15 minutes from the Swift Run Gap entry point to Shenandoah National Park, this property offers the perfect blend of privacy and accessibility. Whether you envision a modern weekend retreat, a vacation escape, or a unique full-time residence, the setting is ideal for embracing the beauty of the Blue Ridge Mountains. A rare opportunity for those ready to create something truly special—your contemporary container home dream starts here. Taxes are estimated based on the list price. See notes in DOCS for floorplans, features etc. . of this unique property. (Number of bedrooms/baths are based on builder plans). FireFly is available to connect once property is fully completed.

25. 2025-08-26
    listed $199,900 Active 1200-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1200 chars)

    Modern, eco-friendly retreat perfectly in tune with the Blue Ridge mountain lifestyle. Tucked back on a serene wooded lot, this contemporary container home—set on a permanent foundation—is ready for a buyer with vision. The heavy lifting has already begun: electricity and a private well are in place, the property has been perked, and construction is underway. Now it’s your turn to take the reins and finish the build exactly to your taste. Located just minutes from local conveniences and only 15 minutes from the Swift Run Gap entry point to Shenandoah National Park, this property offers the perfect blend of privacy and accessibility. Whether you envision a modern weekend retreat, a vacation escape, or a unique full-time residence, the setting is ideal for embracing the beauty of the Blue Ridge Mountains. A rare opportunity for those ready to create something truly special—your contemporary container home dream starts here. Taxes are estimated based on the list price. See notes in DOCS for floorplans, features etc. . of this unique property. (Number of bedrooms/baths are based on builder plans). FireFly is available to connect once property is fully completed.

26. 2025-08-22
    listed $199,900 Active 1146-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1146 chars)

    Modern, eco-friendly property perfectly in tune with the Blue Ridge mountain lifestyle. Tucked back on a serene wooded lot, this contemporary container home—set on a permanent foundation—is ready for a buyer with vision. The heavy lifting has already begun: electricity and a private well are in place, the property has been perked, and construction is underway. Now it’s your turn to take the reins and finish the build exactly to your taste. Located just minutes from local conveniences and only 15 minutes from the Swift Run Gap entry point to Shenandoah National Park, this property offers the perfect blend of privacy and accessibility. Whether you envision a modern weekend retreat, a vacation escape, or a unique full-time residence, the setting is ideal for embracing the beauty of the Blue Ridge Mountains. A rare opportunity for those ready to create something truly special—your contemporary container home dream starts here. Taxes are estimated based on the list price. See notes in DOCS for floorplans, features etc. . of this unique property. FireFly is available to connect once property is fully completed.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 7/10 Severe FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥103°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 2% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,607
• − Mortgage interest: −$46,942
• − Property taxes: −$12,570
• − Insurance: −$4,988
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,129
• − Management: −$2,129
• − Depreciation: −$24,379
• Taxable loss: −$66,529
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$15,967
• After-tax cash flow: $-33,307/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 11 photos

Poor 20/100 Extensive rehab

This property requires extensive repairs and stabilization to become habitable. Immediate attention is needed to address the structural damage and ensure safety.

Repairs flagged

• Major roof — The roof is partially collapsed and missing
• Major exterior walls — The structure is made of shipping containers with visible damage
• Major foundation — The structure appears unstable and the foundation is not visible

Value-add opportunities

• Both complete structural repair and stabilization — Stabilizing the structure and repairing the roof and exterior walls would significantly increase the property's value and safety
• Both landscaping and curb appeal improvements — A well-maintained landscape and curb appeal would enhance the property's aesthetic and marketability

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
roof · The roof is partially collapsed and missing	Major	$15,000–50,000
exterior walls · The structure is made of shipping containers with visible damage	Major	$15,000–50,000
foundation · The structure appears unstable and the foundation is not visible	Major	$15,000–50,000
Total estimated repair cost · 3 items		$45,000–150,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both complete structural repair and stabilization — Stabilizing the structure and repairing the roof and exterior walls would significantly increase the property's value and safety ↑
• Both landscaping and curb appeal improvements — A well-maintained landscape and curb appeal would enhance the property's aesthetic and marketability ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Greene County Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5101710
• Math proficiency: 40% ▼ -37.00%
• Reading proficiency: 64% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $59,129
• Composite: 45.22/100
• National rank: #2668
• State rank: #88 of 131 in VA

Livability — Ruckersville

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #318
• US rank: #11455

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B+ Crime A+ Employment A Housing A- Health & safety F User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 5,980

Population outlook (Greene County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 20,465 people
• By 2030: 20,958 · +2.4%
• By 2040: 21,619 · +5.6%
• By 2050: 21,699 · +6.0%
• By 2075: 21,656 · +5.8%
• By 2100: 20,156 · -1.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (82%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 82% Two or more races 9% Black 6% Hispanic / Latino 4% Asian 2%
• Common ancestry: Italian 3% Romanian 2% Serbian 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 2% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Greene

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+24.7) · D 37.0% · R 61.7% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -2.9pp toward R · 2008: -21.9pp · 2024: -24.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+24.7 2020: R+23.9 2016: R+31.8 2012: R+25.3 2008: R+21.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -61.51%
• Current HPI: 181.8265
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

-30.5% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-20 Price Changed $139,000 CAAR
• 2026-05-20 Price Changed $139,000 CAAR
• 2026-05-07 Price Changed $149,000 CAAR
• 2026-05-07 Price Changed $149,000 CAAR
• 2026-04-15 Price Changed $169,000 CAAR
• 2026-04-15 Price Changed $169,000 CAAR
• 2025-08-26 Listed $199,900 CAAR
• 2025-08-22 Listed $199,900 CAAR