27 Alvin Ter

Springfield, NJ 07081-1414

$729,900D

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,976 sqft · Built 1961 · SingleFamily · Active · 37 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $6,427/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,828
• Tax + insurance: −$1,812
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,350
• Net cashflow: $-562/mo
• Annual: $-6,748/yr
• Cap rate: 6.07%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.80%
• DSCR: 0.96
• 1% rule: 0.88%
• Cash to close: $204,372

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $730k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-562 ($-7k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $631k (13.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $643k (11.9% below list).
• It's been on market 37 days — a 3% lower offer ($708k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $631k (13.6% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• In year one you build about $27k of equity ($5k loan paydown + $22k appreciation (3.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Springfield Public School District (suburban): math 25% / reading 25% proficiency, ranked #350 of 472 in NJ (top 74%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; only 8% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Florence M. Gaudineer Middle School (518 students, 14% FRL); Jonathan Dayton High School (659 students, 16% FRL).
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo.
• Market conditions: 2 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 0d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,749 units permitted in Union County in 2024 (1,421 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Union County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 4 sale attempts since 8y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $240k; list at $730k implies a 204% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$44k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 37 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 14% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1961 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.