27 Alvin Ter · Springfield, NJ 07081-1414

$729,900

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,976 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 37 Days on market

Built 1961 7,840 sqft lot $369/sqft · 9% above area Est $749k · at est.

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.3/30.0
• ARV discount +8.6/15.0
• Appreciation +5.0/10.0
• 1% rule +3.8/10.0
• DSCR +3.6/10.0
• Schools +2.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Now listed at $729,900, reduced from $749,900 for exceptional value in one of Springfield most desirable neighborhoods. This beautifully updated 4-bedroom, 3-bath split-level home offers a rare combination of privacy and convenience with only one neighboring property and Alvin Park right next door. Bright open-concept living and dining spaces with Sun-filled eat-in kitchen with new flooring and ample storage. Spacious upstairs bedrooms including an updated primary suite. Fully finished lower level with home office, laundry and a flexible bonus space. Driveway parking for up to 6 cars, so not headache for visitors. Low taxes in a prestigious neighborhood with top-rated schools, a real bonus

Key facts

• 7,840 sq ft lot
• 6 parking spots
• Built 1961

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Pets allowed; On-site exercise room

Exterior

• Parking: Six parking spaces; Blacktop driveway
• Utilities: Electric service; Natural gas service; Public sewer; Public water
• Home design: Split-level design; Renovated in 2020
• Construction: Renovated construction; Full basement
• Exterior features: Vinyl siding; Asphalt shingle roof; Cul-de-sac lot; Storage shed

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Gas range/oven; Microwave; Kitchen exhaust fan
• Bedrooms: Master bedroom with full bath; Three additional bedrooms on the second level
• Flooring: Tile; Vinyl/linoleum; Wood
• Bathrooms: Three full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Two heating units (forced hot air and heat pump); Natural gas heating; Two central air units
• Interior features: Eat-in kitchen; Living/dining combo; Office; Family room; Den; Full basement; Storage shed
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; Laundry room on ground level

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $730k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-562 ($-7k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $631k (13.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $643k (11.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $631k (13.6% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Springfield Public School District (suburban): math 25% / reading 25% proficiency, ranked #350 of 472 in NJ (top 74%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; only 8% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Florence M. Gaudineer Middle School (518 students, 14% FRL); Jonathan Dayton High School (659 students, 16% FRL).
• Market conditions: 2 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 0d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,749 units permitted in Union County in 2024 (1,421 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $27k of equity ($5k loan paydown + $22k appreciation (3.0% local appreciation)).
• Union County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$44k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 37 days — a 3% lower offer ($708k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 8y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $240k; list at $730k implies a 204% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $630,569 (13.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 37 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 14% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1961 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.88% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.07%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.80%
• DSCR: 0.96
• GRM: 9.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $748,741
• List price: $729,900
• Delta: -2.52%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 10 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 4.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.26×
• Total profit: $52,578
• Equity at exit: $328,195

10-year hold

• IRR: 7.7%
• Equity multiple: 2.17×
• Total profit: $238,111
• Equity at exit: $505,787

Cash invested: $204,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 21 Tenant-Leaning
• State New Jersey: 21 Tenant-Leaning · D+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Anti-eviction Act requires just-cause statewide; rent control in 100+ municipalities; one of the most tenant-friendly states.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 07081-1414

• Active inventory: 2
• Price-to-rent: 9.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $6,427 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,828
• Tax from tax record: −$1,082 /mo · $12,978/yr
• Insurance: −$304
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$427 /mo · $5,118/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,350
• Net cashflow: $-562

Break-even live

Break-even rent $7,139

Max offer price $630,569

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-149	-5% $-356	+0% $-562	+5% $-769	+10% $-975
Rent	-10% $-1,070	-5% $-816	+0% $-562	+5% $-308	+10% $-55
Rate	-1.0pp $-195	-0.5pp $-377	base $-562	+0.5pp $-751	+1.0pp $-944

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $182,475
• Closing costs: $21,897
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2851 Debra Way Unit 1546266P Union, NJ	4.0	3.0	2497	$5,806	$2.33	17d	1	0.47mi
92 Millburn Ave Springfield, NJ	1.0–3.0	1.0–4.0	1923	$8,745	$4.55	0d	7	1.03mi
2400 Vauxhall Rd Union, NJ	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.5	1132	$3,730	$3.30	0d	1	1.37mi

Listing history 27 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $729,900 Active 37 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $729,900 Active 34 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $729,900 Active 33 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $729,900 Active 32 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $729,900 Active 31 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $729,900 Active 29 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $729,900 Active 28 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $729,900 Active 25 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $729,900 Active 24 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $729,900 Active 23 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $729,900 Active 20 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $729,900 Active 19 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $729,900 Active 18 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $729,900 Active 17 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $729,900 Active 16 DOM
16. 2026-05-15
    listed $749,900 Active 705-char remark
17. 2026-05-15
    historical $749,900 705-char remark
18. 2019-03-27
    soldstatus $240,000 Sold
19. 2019-02-26
    historical
20. 2019-01-25
    status Active
21. 2019-01-11
    historical
22. 2018-12-26
    status Active
23. 2018-11-01
    historical
24. 2018-10-15
    price $250,000
25. 2018-09-18
    price $270,000
26. 2018-08-21
    price $275,000
27. 2018-07-23
    listed $270,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NJ · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $12,978 · $1,082/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $15,576 · $1,298/mo
• Expected delta: +$2,598/yr (+$217/mo · 20.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 8/10 Severe FEMA zone AE · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥101°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $77,128
• − Mortgage interest: −$40,886
• − Property taxes: −$12,978
• − Insurance: −$8,768
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$6,170
• − Management: −$6,170
• − Depreciation: −$21,233
• Taxable loss: −$19,078
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$4,579
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,169/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Springfield Public School District
• NCES district ID: 3415630
• Math proficiency: 25% ▼ -27.00%
• Reading proficiency: 25% ▼ -43.00%
• Median HH income: $93,744
• Composite: 26.25/100
• National rank: #7255
• State rank: #350 of 472 in NJ

Livability — Springfield

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

No demographic data for this ZIP.

Market trends

• HPI YoY: —
• Current HPI: —
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NJ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Consumer Goods	3	$31B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$153B
▸Technology	2	$21B
▸Insurance	2	$20B
▸Healthcare	2	$19B
▸Financial Services	1	$70B

Price history

+170.3% since first listed

13 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-29 Price Changed $729,900 GSMLS
• 2026-05-15 Listed $749,900 GSMLS
• 2026-05-15 Coming Soon $749,900 GSMLS
• 2019-03-27 Sold (MLS) $240,000 GSMLS
• 2019-02-26 Delisted — GSMLS
• 2019-01-25 Relisted — GSMLS
• 2019-01-11 Delisted — GSMLS
• 2018-12-26 Relisted — GSMLS
• 2018-11-01 Delisted — GSMLS
• 2018-10-15 Price Changed $250,000 GSMLS
• 2018-09-18 Price Changed $270,000 GSMLS
• 2018-08-21 Price Changed $275,000 GSMLS
• 2018-07-23 Listed $270,000 GSMLS

Property tax history

+5.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $12,978 · +1.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.