25135 Ginger Ranch Dr

Houston, TX 77494

$320,000D

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,320 sqft · Built 2009 · SingleFamily · Pending · 129 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,671/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,678
• Tax + insurance: −$719
• HOA: −$34
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$561
• Net cashflow: $-321/mo
• Annual: $-3,847/yr
• Cap rate: 5.09%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.29%
• DSCR: 0.81
• 1% rule: 0.83%
• Cash to close: $89,600

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $320k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-321 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $263k (17.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $267k (16.5% below list).
• It's been on market 129 days — a 12% lower offer ($282k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $263k (17.7% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F.
• Katy ISD (suburban): math 61% / reading 63% proficiency, ranked #29 of 826 in TX (top 4%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Roberta Wright Rylander El (math 59% / reading 65%, grade B, #321 of 4,322 statewide, top 8%, 1,088 students, 46% FRL); Cinco Ranch J H (math 75% / reading 69%, grade A, #52 of 1,662 statewide, top 3%, 1,510 students, 33% FRL); Katy H S (math 62% / reading 74%, grade B, #150 of 1,632 statewide, top 10%, 3,330 students, 38% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents falling (-3.5%/yr); 1037 active listings in the ZIP; 9 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 46d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 56% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 12,093 units permitted in Fort Bend County in 2024 (815 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Fort Bend County population projected at +75% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 8 sale attempts since 17y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $30k (9%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.1% vs local median 3.1% in Houston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 129 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 18% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?