25135 Ginger Ranch Dr · Houston, TX 77494

$320,000

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,320 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 129 Days on market

Built 2009 5,039 sqft lot $138/sqft · 20% below area Est $401k · 20% under $34/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +8.0/30.0
• Schools +5.7/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• 1% rule +3.3/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.1/10.0
• Rent growth +1.6/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Located in Katy Creek Ranch, this 4-bedroom, 2.5-bath home in Katy TX 77494 offers 2,320 sq ft of functional living space with updates throughout. The kitchen features granite countertops, 42-inch cabinets, stainless steel appliances, and ample storage. Tile flooring downstairs and laminate upstairs provide durability and easy maintenance. Open living area includes a gas fireplace, plus an upstairs game room for added flexibility. Spacious primary suite offers double sinks, soaking tub, and separate shower. Backyard features a covered patio with ceiling fan, sprinkler system, and fenced yard. Community amenities include pool and recreation center. Convenient access to I-10, Grand Parkway (99), and Westpark Tollway, and minutes from LaCenterra, H-E-B, and Exploration Park.

Key facts

• Gas fireplace
• Covered patio
• Upstairs game room

Tags

• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• GAS FIREPLACE
• UPSTAIRS GAME ROOM
• COVERED PATIO
• SPRINKLER SYSTEM

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $320k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-321 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $263k (17.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $267k (16.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $263k (17.7% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 5.1% vs local median 3.2% in Houston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F.
• Katy ISD (suburban): math 61% / reading 63% proficiency, ranked #29 of 826 in TX (top 4%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Roberta Wright Rylander El (math 59% / reading 65%, grade B, #321 of 4,322 statewide, top 8%, 1,088 students, 46% FRL); Cinco Ranch J H (math 75% / reading 69%, grade A, #52 of 1,662 statewide, top 3%, 1,510 students, 33% FRL); Katy H S (math 62% / reading 74%, grade B, #150 of 1,632 statewide, top 10%, 3,330 students, 38% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents falling (-3.5%/yr); 1037 active listings in the ZIP; 9 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 46d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 56% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 12,093 units permitted in Fort Bend County in 2024 (815 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Fort Bend County population projected at +75% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 129 days — a 12% lower offer ($282k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 8 sale attempts since 17y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $30k (9%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $263,361 (17.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 129 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 18% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.83% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.09%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.29%
• DSCR: 0.81
• GRM: 10.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $401,233
• List price: $320,000
• Delta: -20.25%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
25311 Pepper Sage Ln	0.43mi	4/2.5	2,201 (-5%)	2mo	$325,000	$148	68
25215 Hazel Rnch	0.07mi	4/2.5	2,664 (+15%)	3mo	$399,900	$150	67
25214 Spring Iris Ln	0.57mi	4/2.5	2,258 (-3%)	1mo	$328,000	$145	66
25110 Southbriar Ln	0.53mi	4/2.5	2,242 (-3%)	4mo	$349,900	$156	64
3214 Vinca Ranch Dr	0.17mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,060 (-11%)	4mo	$299,500	$145	63
2911 Lake Dr	0.34mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,103 (-9%)	0mo	$315,000	$150	61
25306 Basil Brook Ct	0.51mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,441 (+5%)	2mo	$345,000	$141	59
25427 Lisburn Dr	0.70mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,284 (-2%)	1mo	$399,887	$175	55
3130 Windemere Park Ln	0.59mi	4/2.5	2,533 (+9%)	4mo	$419,500	$166	52
2915 Autumnglow Ct	0.64mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,446 (+5%)	3mo	$387,000	$158	52
4510 Ferndale Meadows Dr	0.53mi	4/3.0	2,654 (+14%)	5mo	$440,000	$166	47
25003 Ivy Trace Ln	0.71mi	4/2.0	2,142 (-8%)	4mo	$435,000	$203	46

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -27.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.11×
• Total profit: $-79,927
• Equity at exit: $47,713

10-year hold

• IRR: -43.4%
• Equity multiple: -0.40×
• Total profit: $-125,433
• Equity at exit: $27,668

Cash invested: $89,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77494

• Home prices YoY: -32.5%
• Rents YoY: -3.5%
• Active inventory: 1037
• Price-to-rent: 10.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,671 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,678
• Tax from tax record: −$585 /mo · $7,023/yr
• Insurance: −$133
• HOA: −$34
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$561
• Net cashflow: $-321

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,077

Max offer price $263,361

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-139	-5% $-230	+0% $-321	+5% $-411	+10% $-502
Rent	-10% $-532	-5% $-426	+0% $-321	+5% $-215	+10% $-110
Rate	-1.0pp $-159	-0.5pp $-239	base $-321	+0.5pp $-404	+1.0pp $-488

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $80,000
• Closing costs: $9,600
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 9 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3519 Lilac Ranch Dr Katy, TX	4.0	3.5	2387	$2,650	$1.11	19d	1	0.13mi
25015 Diamond Ranch Dr Katy, TX	4.0	4.0	2387	$2,600	$1.09	45d	1	0.22mi
3300 Falcon Landing Blvd Katy, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–3.0	1203	$2,776	$2.31	0d	27	0.26mi
25307 Holton Ridge Dr Katy, TX	3.0	2.0	2240	$2,500	$1.12	45d	1	0.52mi
2815 Empire Oaks Ln Katy, TX	3.0	2.0	1665	$6,250	$3.75	4d	1	0.57mi
4307 Trinity Creek Ct Katy, TX	4.0	3.5	3187	$3,100	$0.97	45d	1	0.73mi
25910 Celtic Terrace Dr Katy, TX	4.0	4.0	3220	$3,499	$1.09	45d	1	0.87mi
24106 Laureumont Ct Katy, TX	3.0	3.5	2971	$3,000	$1.01	20d	1	1.12mi
2733 Commercial Center Blvd Katy, TX	3.0	2.0	1621	$3,120	$1.92	45d	1	1.41mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $34 · $408/yr
• Likely covers: gaspool

Listing history 30 events

1. 2026-06-02
   days on market $320,000 Pending 129 DOM
2. 2026-06-01
   days on market $320,000 Pending 128 DOM
3. 2026-05-31
   statusdays on market $320,000 Pending 127 DOM
4. 2026-05-15
   price $320,000 782-char remark

   Show marketing remark (782 chars)

   Located in Katy Creek Ranch, this 4-bedroom, 2.5-bath home in Katy TX 77494 offers 2,320 sq ft of functional living space with updates throughout. The kitchen features granite countertops, 42-inch cabinets, stainless steel appliances, and ample storage. Tile flooring downstairs and laminate upstairs provide durability and easy maintenance. Open living area includes a gas fireplace, plus an upstairs game room for added flexibility. Spacious primary suite offers double sinks, soaking tub, and separate shower. Backyard features a covered patio with ceiling fan, sprinkler system, and fenced yard. Community amenities include pool and recreation center. Convenient access to I-10, Grand Parkway (99), and Westpark Tollway, and minutes from LaCenterra, H-E-B, and Exploration Park.

5. 2026-03-21
   price $340,000 782-char remark

   Show marketing remark (782 chars)

   Located in Katy Creek Ranch, this 4-bedroom, 2.5-bath home in Katy TX 77494 offers 2,320 sq ft of functional living space with updates throughout. The kitchen features granite countertops, 42-inch cabinets, stainless steel appliances, and ample storage. Tile flooring downstairs and laminate upstairs provide durability and easy maintenance. Open living area includes a gas fireplace, plus an upstairs game room for added flexibility. Spacious primary suite offers double sinks, soaking tub, and separate shower. Backyard features a covered patio with ceiling fan, sprinkler system, and fenced yard. Community amenities include pool and recreation center. Convenient access to I-10, Grand Parkway (99), and Westpark Tollway, and minutes from LaCenterra, H-E-B, and Exploration Park.

6. 2026-03-07
   price $345,000 782-char remark

   Show marketing remark (782 chars)

   Located in Katy Creek Ranch, this 4-bedroom, 2.5-bath home in Katy TX 77494 offers 2,320 sq ft of functional living space with updates throughout. The kitchen features granite countertops, 42-inch cabinets, stainless steel appliances, and ample storage. Tile flooring downstairs and laminate upstairs provide durability and easy maintenance. Open living area includes a gas fireplace, plus an upstairs game room for added flexibility. Spacious primary suite offers double sinks, soaking tub, and separate shower. Backyard features a covered patio with ceiling fan, sprinkler system, and fenced yard. Community amenities include pool and recreation center. Convenient access to I-10, Grand Parkway (99), and Westpark Tollway, and minutes from LaCenterra, H-E-B, and Exploration Park.

7. 2026-01-24
   listed $350,000 Active 782-char remark

   Show marketing remark (782 chars)

   Located in Katy Creek Ranch, this 4-bedroom, 2.5-bath home in Katy TX 77494 offers 2,320 sq ft of functional living space with updates throughout. The kitchen features granite countertops, 42-inch cabinets, stainless steel appliances, and ample storage. Tile flooring downstairs and laminate upstairs provide durability and easy maintenance. Open living area includes a gas fireplace, plus an upstairs game room for added flexibility. Spacious primary suite offers double sinks, soaking tub, and separate shower. Backyard features a covered patio with ceiling fan, sprinkler system, and fenced yard. Community amenities include pool and recreation center. Convenient access to I-10, Grand Parkway (99), and Westpark Tollway, and minutes from LaCenterra, H-E-B, and Exploration Park.

8. 2026-01-20
   historical $2,250
9. 2025-10-21
   listed $2,300
10. 2025-10-16
    historical $2,300
11. 2025-10-02
    price $2,300
12. 2025-09-18
    price $2,350
13. 2025-08-29
    price $2,400
14. 2025-07-11
    listed $2,450
15. 2024-09-09
    historical $2,450
16. 2024-08-08
    price $2,450
17. 2024-06-01
    listed $2,500
18. 2018-07-13
    soldstatus
19. 2018-07-12
    soldstatus Sold 544-char remark

    Show marketing remark (544 chars)

    Lovingly maintained 2 story, 4 Bedroom, 2.5 Bath. Tile and wood floors throughout the house including stairs. Granite countertops & 42" cabinets. Game Room on 2nd floor. Good size back yard with covered patio & extended natural stone floor. Alarm system, sprinklers, gutters & water softener system. Garage floor Epoxy painted. Garage opener. Recreational Center & Community Pool. Great location, easy access to Highways. Nearby grocery stores, restaurants and shopping centers. Highly acclaimed Katy ISD Schools.

20. 2018-07-11
    status Pending 544-char remark

    Show marketing remark (544 chars)

    Lovingly maintained 2 story, 4 Bedroom, 2.5 Bath. Tile and wood floors throughout the house including stairs. Granite countertops & 42" cabinets. Game Room on 2nd floor. Good size back yard with covered patio & extended natural stone floor. Alarm system, sprinklers, gutters & water softener system. Garage floor Epoxy painted. Garage opener. Recreational Center & Community Pool. Great location, easy access to Highways. Nearby grocery stores, restaurants and shopping centers. Highly acclaimed Katy ISD Schools.

21. 2018-06-30
    status Option Pending 544-char remark

    Show marketing remark (544 chars)

    Lovingly maintained 2 story, 4 Bedroom, 2.5 Bath. Tile and wood floors throughout the house including stairs. Granite countertops & 42" cabinets. Game Room on 2nd floor. Good size back yard with covered patio & extended natural stone floor. Alarm system, sprinklers, gutters & water softener system. Garage floor Epoxy painted. Garage opener. Recreational Center & Community Pool. Great location, easy access to Highways. Nearby grocery stores, restaurants and shopping centers. Highly acclaimed Katy ISD Schools.

22. 2018-06-06
    listed $245,000 Active 544-char remark

    Show marketing remark (544 chars)

    Lovingly maintained 2 story, 4 Bedroom, 2.5 Bath. Tile and wood floors throughout the house including stairs. Granite countertops & 42" cabinets. Game Room on 2nd floor. Good size back yard with covered patio & extended natural stone floor. Alarm system, sprinklers, gutters & water softener system. Garage floor Epoxy painted. Garage opener. Recreational Center & Community Pool. Great location, easy access to Highways. Nearby grocery stores, restaurants and shopping centers. Highly acclaimed Katy ISD Schools.

23. 2016-11-17
    historical
24. 2016-11-05
    listed $251,600 Active
25. 2016-11-04
    historical
26. 2016-09-25
    price $254,800
27. 2016-08-17
    listed $262,000 Active
28. 2010-06-04
    soldstatus
29. 2010-04-12
    historical
30. 2009-09-21
    listed $181,904

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $7,023 · $585/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $7,023 · $585/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 24% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $32,052
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,925
• − Property taxes: −$7,023
• − Insurance: −$1,600
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,564
• − Management: −$2,564
• − HOA: −$408
• − Depreciation: −$9,309
• Taxable loss: −$9,342
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,242
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,605/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Katy ISD
• NCES district ID: 4825170
• Math proficiency: 61% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 63% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $90,312
• Composite: 56.59/100
• National rank: #1146
• State rank: #29 of 826 in TX

Livability — Houston

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #184
• US rank: #4771

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Fort Bend County · 836,777 people
• City population: 3,226,434
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 140,157
• Household income: $148,720
• Rent vs Own: 29.1% rent · 70.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 3390.0

Population outlook (Fort Bend County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,004,526 people
• By 2030: 1,153,104 · +14.8%
• By 2040: 1,453,718 · +44.7%
• By 2050: 1,753,781 · +74.6%
• By 2075: 2,455,772 · +144.5%
• By 2100: 2,930,528 · +191.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.73)
• Race & ethnicity: White 39% Hispanic / Latino 25% Asian 24% Two or more races 18% Black 8%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 8% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Lithuanian 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 39% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 54% English-only · Spanish 20% Other Indo-European 8% Other Asian/Pacific 5%

Political lean MEDSL · Fort Bend

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 49.5% · R 47.9% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.0pp toward D · 2008: -2.4pp · 2024: 1.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+1.6 2020: D+10.6 2016: D+6.6 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+2.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -110.62%
• Current HPI: 229.7189
• Rent YoY: ▼ -3.53%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+75.9% since first listed

27 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-15 Price Changed $320,000 HARMLS
• 2026-03-21 Price Changed $340,000 HARMLS
• 2026-03-07 Price Changed $345,000 HARMLS
• 2026-01-24 Listed $350,000 HARMLS
• 2026-01-20 Rental Removed $2,250 HARMLS
• 2025-10-21 Listed for Rent $2,300 HARMLS
• 2025-10-16 Rental Removed $2,300 HARMLS
• 2025-10-02 Price Changed $2,300 HARMLS
• 2025-09-18 Price Changed $2,350 HARMLS
• 2025-08-29 Price Changed $2,400 HARMLS
• 2025-07-11 Listed for Rent $2,450 HARMLS
• 2024-09-09 Rental Removed $2,450 HARMLS
• 2024-08-08 Price Changed $2,450 HARMLS
• 2024-06-01 Listed for Rent $2,500 HARMLS
• 2018-07-13 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2018-07-12 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2018-07-11 Pending — HARMLS
• 2018-06-30 Pending — HARMLS
• 2018-06-06 Listed $245,000 HARMLS
• 2016-11-17 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2016-11-05 Listed $251,600 HARMLS
• 2016-11-04 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2016-09-25 Price Changed $254,800 HARMLS
• 2016-08-17 Listed $262,000 HARMLS
• 2010-06-04 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2010-04-12 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2009-09-21 Listed $181,904 HARMLS

Property tax history

+15.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $7,023 · -1.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.