4 bd · 2.0 ba ·
2,423 sqft ·
Built 1998
· SingleFamily
· Pending
· 6 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$2,575/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$1,529
Tax + insurance
−$184
HOA
−$63
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$541
Net cashflow
$259/mo
Annual
$3,112/yr
Cap rate
7.36%
Cash-on-cash
3.81%
DSCR
1.17
1% rule
0.88%
Cash to close
$81,620
Investor read
This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $292k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $259 ($3k/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $258k (11.7% below list).
Only 6 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
Recommended offer: $258k (11.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 85/100 on livability (#26 in FL, #507 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, housing A+, health & safety A+.
Hillsborough (suburban): math 47% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #41 of 73 in FL (top 56%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.2%/yr); 313 active listings in the ZIP; 14 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 9,053 units permitted in Hillsborough County in 2024 (4,555 in 5+ unit buildings).
Hillsborough County population projected at +37% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
5 sale attempts since 22y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
This rent runs 38% of the median local income ($81k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.
Questions for listing agent
What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
CashFlowRE · CFR-YY13Q3CDXRY9J6
· Data 1 week agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29