2612 W Kirby Ave

Champaign, IL 61821

$164,999C+

4 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,225 sqft · Built 1960 · SingleFamily · Active · 27 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,835/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$865
• Tax + insurance: −$257
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$385
• Net cashflow: $328/mo
• Annual: $3,933/yr
• Cap rate: 8.68%
• Cash-on-cash: 8.51%
• DSCR: 1.38
• 1% rule: 1.11%
• Cash to close: $46,200

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $165k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $328 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $165k).
• It's been on market 27 days — a 2% lower offer ($163k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $163k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 83/100 on livability (#44 in IL, #902 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F.
• Champaign CUSD 4 (urban): math 24% / reading 26% proficiency, ranked #333 of 620 in IL (top 54%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+9.3%/yr); 89 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 14d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 573 units permitted in Champaign County in 2024 (359 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Champaign County population projected at +15% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 7 sale attempts since 15y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $66k; list at $165k implies a 150% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $46k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Cap rate 8.7% vs local median 3.8% in Champaign — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($71k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• Built in 1960 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.