3138 Oceanic Dr

Toms River, NJ 08753-4836

$490,000D

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,002 sqft · Built 1973 · SingleFamily · Active · 33 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $3,258/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,570
• Tax + insurance: −$1,229
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$684
• Net cashflow: $-1,226/mo
• Annual: $-14,707/yr
• Cap rate: 4.34%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.99%
• DSCR: 0.69
• 1% rule: 0.66%
• Cash to close: $137,200

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $490k. Condition is rated fair.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1k ($-15k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $273k (44.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $326k (33.5% below list).
• It's been on market 33 days — a 3% lower offer ($475k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $273k (44.2% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• In year one you build about $18k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $15k appreciation (3.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 81/100 on livability (#61 in NJ, #1,538 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: commute D, cost of living F.
• Toms River Regional School District (suburban): math 18% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #316 of 472 in NJ (top 67%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Cedar Grove Elementary School (math 27% / reading 42%, grade F, #582 of 1,303 statewide, top 49%, 937 students, 26% FRL); Toms River Intermediate School East (math 17% / reading 49%, grade F, #271 of 431 statewide, top 64%, 1,294 students, 24% FRL); Toms River High School East (math 23% / reading 45%, grade F, #243 of 399 statewide, top 63%, 1,520 students, 23% FRL) — zoned schools at 24% FRL track the district average.
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo.
• Market conditions: 1 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 51d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 4,434 units permitted in Ocean County in 2024 (868 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Ocean County population projected to shrink 8% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• 10 sale attempts since 10y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $395k; 24% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$45k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 33 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 44% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
• Built in 1973 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.

Repairs flagged (vision-AI assessment)

• Major: roof — Significant wear and tear visible.
• Major: exterior siding — Significant wear and discoloration visible.
• Major: flooring — Significant wear and tear visible.
• Major: interior walls/paint — Significant wear and discoloration visible.
• Major: HVAC/mechanicals — Significant wear and tear visible.
• Major: landscaping — Overgrown vegetation and unkempt appearance visible.