Is 3138 Oceanic Dr in Toms River, NJ a good investment?

CashFlowRE grades it D with a 4.3% cap rate and $-1,226/mo modeled cash flow at a $490,000 list price. See the full underwriting and recommended offer on the page.

What is the cap rate for 3138 Oceanic Dr?

The modeled cap rate is 4.3% — annual NOI divided by price, using CashFlowRE's rent and expense estimates.

What would this property rent for?

Estimated market rent is $3,258/month, from CashFlowRE's rent model.

D Composite 41.35

Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

ARV discount +15.0/15.0
Cash flow +6.6/30.0
Appreciation +5.0/10.0
Livability +4.0/5.0
Schools +3.4/10.0
Rent growth +2.5/5.0
Condition / age +2.2/5.0
1% rule +1.6/10.0
DSCR +0.9/10.0

$490,000

3138 Oceanic Dr · Toms River, NJ 08753-4836

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,002 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 33 Days on market

Built 1973 Fair condition 6,098 sqft lot $245/sqft · 42% below area Est $842k · 42% under

🖨 Deal sheet (PDF) 📄 Offer letter ✓ Due diligence

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome home to this beautifully maintained 3-bedroom, 2-bath bi-level in the heart of Toms River, where comfort, flexibility, and outdoor living come together. Thoughtfully designed with a versatile layout featuring two bedrooms upstairs and one downstairs, this home offers endless possibilities for guests, a home office, or additional privacy. The upper level features a spacious primary bedroom with a cedar closet, adding both charm and practical storage. Hardwood flooring awaits beneath the vinyl flooring, offering even more potential to personalize the space. Designed with entertaining in mind, the expansive deck, patio, and hot tub create the perfect setting for summer barbecues, relaxing evenings, or hosting gatherings year-round. Close to shopping, beaches, restaurants and more!

Key facts

Hardwood flooring
Versatile layout
Cedar closet

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $490k. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1k ($-15k/yr) — negative.
To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $273k (44.2% below list).
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $326k (33.5% below list).
Recommended offer: $273k (44.2% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.

Location & tenants

Location reads 81/100 on livability (#61 in NJ, #1,538 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: commute D, cost of living F.
Toms River Regional School District (suburban): math 18% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #316 of 472 in NJ (top 67%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
Zoned schools: Cedar Grove Elementary School (math 27% / reading 42%, grade F, #582 of 1,303 statewide, top 49%, 937 students, 26% FRL); Toms River Intermediate School East (math 17% / reading 49%, grade F, #271 of 431 statewide, top 64%, 1,294 students, 24% FRL); Toms River High School East (math 23% / reading 45%, grade F, #243 of 399 statewide, top 63%, 1,520 students, 23% FRL) — zoned schools at 24% FRL track the district average.
Market conditions: 1 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 51d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 4,434 units permitted in Ocean County in 2024 (868 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

In year one you build about $18k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $15k appreciation (3.0% local appreciation)).
Ocean County population projected to shrink 8% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$45k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

It's been on market 33 days — a 3% lower offer ($475k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
10 sale attempts since 10y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
Current owner paid $395k; 24% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo.
Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $273,491 (44.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
It's been on market 33 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 44% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
Built in 1973 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

1% rule: 0.66% ✗
Cap rate: 4.34%
Cash-on-cash: -6.99%
DSCR: 0.69
GRM: 12.5

CMA / ARV

ARV (median comp): $841,577
List price: $490,000
Delta: -38.33%
Verdict: UNDERPRICED
Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
601 N End Ave	0.12mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,990 (-1%)	2mo	$950,000	$477	86
625 N End Ave N	0.11mi	3/2.0 (+1)	2,052 (+2%)	7mo	$835,000	$407	80
633 Garfield Ave	0.46mi	3/2.5 (+1)	1,992 (-0%)	0mo	$580,000	$291	71
597 Vision Ave	0.08mi	3/2.5 (+1)	2,135 (+7%)	17mo	$950,000	$445	64
3467 E Lisbon Ave	0.63mi	3/3.0 (+1)	1,976 (-1%)	0mo	$969,000	$490	59
3166 Beachview Dr	0.21mi	3/2.5 (+1)	2,200 (+10%)	12mo	$695,000	$316	56
3402 Sandy Pl	0.52mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,864 (-7%)	15mo	$1,100,000	$590	47
3111 Lisbon Ave	0.31mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,828 (-9%)	24mo	$510,000	$279	46
3128 Veeder Ave	0.20mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,704 (-15%)	20mo	$872,400	$512	44
3415 Adams Ave	0.60mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,866 (-7%)	20mo	$300,000	$161	39
122 Foster Rd	0.75mi	3/2.0 (+1)	2,082 (+4%)	22mo	$615,000	$295	35
6 Jamaica Ave	0.70mi	3/2.5 (+1)	2,200 (+10%)	11mo	$900,000	$409	34

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

IRR: -2.4%
Equity multiple: 0.86×
Total profit: $-18,729
Equity at exit: $220,325

10-year hold

IRR: 2.0%
Equity multiple: 1.31×
Total profit: $43,216
Equity at exit: $339,547

Cash invested: $137,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

Overall (STATE): 21 Tenant-Leaning
State New Jersey: 21 Tenant-Leaning · D+6
County: — inherits STATE
City: — inherits STATE

Anti-eviction Act requires just-cause statewide; rent control in 100+ municipalities; one of the most tenant-friendly states.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

For sale now: 9 active · 6 under contract
Months of supply: 9.0 mo (11%/mo absorbed)
Median asking: $818,888 ($413/sqft)
Median days on market: 63 d
This list price: lowest-priced of the active set
ARV vs active asking: +1.8% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 08753-4836

Active inventory: 1
Price-to-rent: 12.5×

Monthly cashflow live

Estimated rent: $3,258 medium interval (Pro) →
Mortgage (P&I): −$2,570
Tax from tax record: −$599 /mo · $7,185/yr
Insurance: −$204
Flood insurance flood zone: −$427 /mo · $5,118/yr
HOA: −$0
Lot rent: −$0
Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$684
Net cashflow: $-1,226

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,809

Max offer price $273,491

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-948	-5% $-1,087	+0% $-1,226	+5% $-1,364	+10% $-1,503
Rent	-10% $-1,483	-5% $-1,354	+0% $-1,226	+5% $-1,097	+10% $-968
Rate	-1.0pp $-979	-0.5pp $-1,101	base $-1,226	+0.5pp $-1,353	+1.0pp $-1,482

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

Down payment: $122,500
Closing costs: $14,700
Club membership (one-time): —
Reserves months: —
Total cash needed: —

Loan-product check · same deal, 3 products live

Conventional

25% down · 7.5% · 30yr

Cash invested: —
Monthly P&I: —
Monthly cashflow: —
DSCR: —
Eligible?: —

Personal DTI + credit; lowest rate.

DSCR

20% down · 8.5% · 30yr

Cash invested: —
Monthly P&I: —
Monthly cashflow: —
DSCR: —
Eligible?: —

No personal income docs; deal must DSCR.

Hard money

10% down · 12.0% · 12mo

Cash invested: —
Monthly P&I: —
Monthly cashflow: —
DSCR: —
Eligible?: —

Short-term bridge; refi at stabilization.

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3118 Glasgow Ave Toms River, NJ	3.0	2.0	1536	$3,300	$2.15	50d	1	0.35mi
3306 Windsor Ave Toms River, NJ	3.0	4.5	2623	$18,000	$6.86	93d	1	0.45mi
3428 Maritime Dr Toms River, NJ	3.0	2.0	1544	$3,200	$2.07	10d	1	0.52mi
2334 Adams Ave Toms River, NJ	3.0	2.0	1500	$3,250	$2.17	0d	1	0.68mi

Property features AI

Exterior

Parking: 2 parking spacesDriveway width for 2 cars
Utilities: Electric serviceNatural gas servicePublic waterPublic sewer
Home design: Bi-level styleApproximate year built (approximate)
Construction: Vinyl siding constructionAsphalt shingle roof
Exterior features: DeckHot tubMetal fencePatioStorage shedVinyl sidingAsphalt shingle roofWhite exterior color

Interior

Kitchen: Separate dining areaKitchen — 10 x 9DishwasherRange/oven (electric)Refrigerator
Bedrooms: Bedroom 1 (Second level) — 14 x 11Bedroom 2 (Second level) — 11 x 11Bedroom 3 (First level) — 14 x 16
Flooring: TileVinyl/linoleumWood
Bathrooms: 2 full bathroomsBathroom (Second level) — 7 x 8Bathroom (First level) — 5 x 8
Heating & cooling: Gas (natural) heating — 1 unit (see remarks)Cooling — 1 unit (see remarks)
Interior features: Cedar closetsFire extinguisherHot tubSmoke detectorCarbon monoxide detectorSump pumpWater filter
Laundry & utility: Dryer

Listing history 50 events

2026-08-08

days on market $490,000 Active 33 DOM
2026-08-06

days on market $490,000 Active 31 DOM
2026-08-05

days on market $490,000 Active 30 DOM
2026-08-03

days on market $490,000 Active 28 DOM
2026-07-31

pricedays on market $490,000 Active 25 DOM
2026-07-30

days on market $499,999 Active 23 DOM
2026-07-28

days on market $499,999 Active 22 DOM
2026-07-26

days on market $499,999 Active 20 DOM
2026-07-24

days on market $499,999 Active 18 DOM
2026-07-23

days on market $499,999 Active 17 DOM
2026-07-22

days on market $499,999 Active 16 DOM
2026-07-21

days on market $499,999 Active 15 DOM
2026-07-20

pricedays on market $499,999 Active 14 DOM

Show marketing remark (796 chars)

Welcome home to this beautifully maintained 3-bedroom, 2-bath bi-level in the heart of Toms River, where comfort, flexibility, and outdoor living come together. Thoughtfully designed with a versatile layout featuring two bedrooms upstairs and one downstairs, this home offers endless possibilities for guests, a home office, or additional privacy. The upper level features a spacious primary bedroom with a cedar closet, adding both charm and practical storage. Hardwood flooring awaits beneath the vinyl flooring, offering even more potential to personalize the space. Designed with entertaining in mind, the expansive deck, patio, and hot tub create the perfect setting for summer barbecues, relaxing evenings, or hosting gatherings year-round. Close to shopping, beaches, restaurants and more!
2026-07-18

days on market $515,000 Active 12 DOM
2026-07-18

days on market $515,000 Active 11 DOM
2026-07-16

days on market $515,000 Active 10 DOM
2026-07-15

days on market $515,000 Active 9 DOM
2026-07-14

days on market $515,000 Active 8 DOM
2026-07-13

days on market $515,000 Active 7 DOM
2026-07-13

days on market $515,000 Active 6 DOM
2026-07-11

days on market $515,000 Active 5 DOM
2026-07-10

days on market $515,000 Active 4 DOM
2026-07-09

days on market $515,000 Active 3 DOM
2026-07-06

pricedays on marketlisting id $515,000 Active 1 DOM

Show marketing remark (796 chars)

Welcome home to this beautifully maintained 3-bedroom, 2-bath bi-level in the heart of Toms River, where comfort, flexibility, and outdoor living come together. Thoughtfully designed with a versatile layout featuring two bedrooms upstairs and one downstairs, this home offers endless possibilities for guests, a home office, or additional privacy. The upper level features a spacious primary bedroom with a cedar closet, adding both charm and practical storage. Hardwood flooring awaits beneath the vinyl flooring, offering even more potential to personalize the space. Designed with entertaining in mind, the expansive deck, patio, and hot tub create the perfect setting for summer barbecues, relaxing evenings, or hosting gatherings year-round. Close to shopping, beaches, restaurants and more!
2026-06-26

days on market $519,000 Active 22 DOM
2026-06-24

days on market $519,000 Active 20 DOM
2026-06-22

days on market $519,000 Active 18 DOM
2026-06-21

days on market $519,000 Active 17 DOM
2026-06-18

days on market $519,000 Active 14 DOM
2026-06-17

days on market $519,000 Active 13 DOM
2026-06-16

days on market $519,000 Active 12 DOM
2026-06-15

days on market $519,000 Active 11 DOM
2026-06-13

days on market $519,000 Active 9 DOM
2026-06-13

days on market $519,000 Active 8 DOM
2026-06-09

days on market $519,000 Active 5 DOM
2026-06-08

days on market $519,000 Active 4 DOM
2026-06-07

days on marketlisting id $519,000 Active 3 DOM
2026-06-04

days on market $519,000 Active 40 DOM
2026-06-03

days on market $519,000 Active 39 DOM
2026-06-02

days on market $519,000 Active 38 DOM
2026-06-01

days on market $519,000 Active 37 DOM
2026-05-31

days on market $519,000 Active 36 DOM
2026-04-25

listed $535,000 Active 898-char remark
2026-04-25

listed $535,000 Active 1093-char remark
2026-04-24

historical $535,000 1093-char remark
2026-04-23

historical $535,000 898-char remark
2021-06-16

soldstatus $395,000
2021-06-09

soldstatus $395,000 Sold
2021-03-24

status Pending
2021-01-05

status Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NJ · Partial reset (capped growth)

Current annual tax: $7,185 · $599/mo
Projected year-2 tax: $9,693 · $808/mo
Expected delta: +$2,508/yr (+$209/mo · 34.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

🌊 Flood 10/10 Extreme FEMA zone AE · 99% chance over 30 yrs
🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥96°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Nearby sold comps map

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Walkable amenities ~0.75 mi

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Taxation est. · year 1

Rental income: $39,090
− Mortgage interest: −$27,448
− Property taxes: −$7,185
− Insurance: −$7,568
− Repairs & maintenance: −$3,127
− Management: −$3,127
− Depreciation: −$14,255
Taxable loss: −$23,620

Your marginal tax rate % combined federal + state — saved on this device

Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$5,669
After-tax cash flow: $-9,039/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 3 photos

Fair 45/100 Moderate rehab Est. rehab $50,050–$90,090 screening

This home requires significant repairs and maintenance to improve its condition and increase its value. The roof, exterior siding, flooring, interior walls/paint, HVAC system, and landscaping are all in poor condition and require immediate attention.

Repairs flagged

Major roof — Significant wear and tear visible.
Major exterior siding — Significant wear and discoloration visible.
Major flooring — Significant wear and tear visible.
Major interior walls/paint — Significant wear and discoloration visible.
Major HVAC/mechanicals — Significant wear and tear visible.
Major landscaping — Overgrown vegetation and unkempt appearance visible.

Value-add opportunities

Both roof replacement — A new roof would significantly improve the home's appearance and increase its value. ↑
Both exterior siding repair — Repairing the siding would improve the home's curb appeal and increase its value. ↑
Both flooring replacement — Replacing the flooring would improve the home's appearance and increase its value. ↑
Both painting — Painting the interior and exterior would improve the home's appearance and increase its value. ↑
Both HVAC system replacement — Replacing the HVAC system would improve the home's comfort and increase its value. ↑
Both landscaping — Landscaping the yard would improve the home's curb appeal and increase its value. ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Moderate scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

F Composite school gradezoned avg 34/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Cedar Grove Elementary School F NJ #582/1,303 Nat'l #23,081/41,679 Middle Toms River Intermediate School East F NJ #271/431 Nat'l #8,059/14,009 High Toms River High School East F NJ #243/399 Nat'l #10,121/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

District: Toms River Regional School District
NCES district ID: 3416230
Math proficiency: 18% ▼ -19.00%
Reading proficiency: 44% ▼ -10.00%
Median HH income: $72,370
Composite: 29.07/100
National rank: #6602
State rank: #316 of 472 in NJ

A Composite livability gradescore 81/100

Livability — Toms River

Score: 81/100
State rank: #61
US rank: #1538

Category grades

Amenities A- Commute D Cost of living F Crime A Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

Census place: Toms River, NJ

Population outlook (Ocean County) Hauer SSP2

Today (2025): 586,991 people
By 2030: 581,403 · -1.0%
By 2040: 564,913 · -3.8%
By 2050: 538,149 · -8.3%
By 2075: 468,845 · -20.1%
By 2100: 350,297 · -40.3%

Not yet ingested

Political lean: —
Race & ethnicity: —
Common origin: —
Civics: —

Market trends

HPI YoY: —
Current HPI: —
Rent YoY: —
Metro: —
State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.05%
F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NJ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
Consumer Goods	3	$31B
#281 Kenvue Skillman $15.4B #289 Campbell Soup Camden $9.6B #320 Church & Dwight Ewing $6.1B
Pharmaceuticals	2	$153B
#48 Johnson & Johnson New Brunswick $88.8B #65 Merck Rahway $64.2B
Technology	2	$21B
#216 Automatic Data Processing Roseland $19.8B #442 Commvault Systems Tinton Falls $0.9B
Insurance	2	$20B
#411 Arch Capital Group Pembroke $15.2B #459 Selective Insurance Group Branchville $4.9B
Healthcare	2	$19B
#310 Quest Diagnostics Secaucus $9.8B #400 Zoetis Parsippany $9.1B
Financial Services	1	$70B
#62 Prudential Financial Newark $70.4B

Price history

+1065.5% since first listed

29 events — show timeline

2026-07-20 Price Changed $499,999 GSMLS
2026-07-20 Price Changed $499,999 MOMLS
2026-07-06 Listed $515,000 MOMLS
2026-07-06 Listed $515,000 GSMLS
2026-06-26 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
2026-06-04 Listed $519,000 BRIGHT MLS
2026-05-21 Price Changed $519,000 MOMLS
2021-06-16 Sold (Public Records) $395,000 Public Records
2021-06-09 Sold (MLS) $395,000 MOMLS
2021-03-24 Pending — MOMLS
2021-01-05 Relisted — MOMLS
2020-11-21 Pending — MOMLS
2020-10-29 Price Changed $395,000 MOMLS
2020-10-15 Listed $445,000 MOMLS
2017-12-20 Sold (Public Records) $246,000 Public Records
2017-12-15 Sold (MLS) $246,000 MOMLS
2017-12-15 Pending — MOMLS
2017-11-13 Listed $255,000 MOMLS
2017-11-03 Delisted — MOMLS
2017-07-05 Listed $255,000 MOMLS
2017-07-02 Delisted — MOMLS
2017-04-21 Price Changed $269,900 MOMLS
2017-01-29 Listed $279,900 MOMLS
2016-12-03 Delisted — MOMLS
2016-10-07 Price Changed $275,000 MOMLS
2016-07-07 Relisted — MOMLS
2016-07-01 Delisted — MOMLS
2016-06-03 Listed $298,000 MOMLS
1978-06-01 Sold (Public Records) $42,900 Public Records

Property tax history

+4.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $7,185 · +7.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.

Cash-flow waterfall

monthly

Sold comps — $/sqft

last 12 mo · ≤1 mi

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