2 bd · 2.0 ba ·
953 sqft ·
Built 1981
· Manufactured
· Pending
· 146 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$1,100/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$351
Tax + insurance
−$115
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$231
Net cashflow
$403/mo
Annual
$4,830/yr
Cap rate
13.50%
Cash-on-cash
25.75%
DSCR
2.15
1% rule
1.64%
Cash to close
$18,760
Investor read
This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $67k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $403 ($5k/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $67k).
It's been on market 146 days — a 12% lower offer ($59k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $59k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $463 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 58/100 on livability (#845 in FL) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime D, amenities F, commute F.
Marion (rural): math 42% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #61 of 73 in FL (top 84%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 61% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
Zoned schools: Sparr Elementary School (math 42% / reading 42%, grade F, #1,403 of 2,144 statewide, top 67%, 425 students, 67% FRL); North Marion High School (math 20% / reading 32%, grade F, #494 of 667 statewide, top 75%, 1,303 students, 66% FRL).
Market conditions: 142 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 7,071 units permitted in Marion County in 2024 (534 in 5+ unit buildings).
Marion County population projected at +13% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
4 sale attempts since 20y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $13k (16%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
Current owner paid $20k; list at $67k implies a 235% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $19k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 13.5% vs local median 1.7% in Reddick — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
Questions for listing agent
It's been on market 146 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
CashFlowRE · CFR-YY6863BE6JBBC2
· Data 3 weeks agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29