12 Jake St

Ithaca, NY 14850

$38,500C

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 962 sqft · Built 1984 · Manufactured · Active · 80 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,829/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$202
• Tax + insurance: −$96
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$594
• Net cashflow: $1,937/mo
• Annual: $23,243/yr
• Cap rate: 68.74%
• Cash-on-cash: 223.01%
• DSCR: 10.92
• 1% rule: 7.35%
• Cash to close: $10,780

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $38k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $2k ($23k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $38k).
• It's been on market 80 days — a 6% lower offer ($36k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $36k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $266 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#210 in NY, #3,240 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, health & safety A+; Watch: housing C-, employment D+, cost of living D.
• Ithaca City School District (urban): math 57% / reading 71% proficiency, ranked #195 of 590 in NY (top 33%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.2%/yr); 327 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 382 units permitted in Tompkins County in 2024 (208 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Tompkins County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 5 sale attempts since 4y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 5.2% rent growth), your $11k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 68.7% vs local median 5.3% in Ithaca — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• At $2,829/mo this rent would consume 48% of the median local household income ($71k/yr) (locally 5169% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 80 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• This sits on a lake — are riparian / water-frontage rights deeded with the parcel? Any dock permits, shoreline easements, or HOA water-use restrictions?
• What's the documented flood / surge / shoreline-erosion history here (FEMA AND non-FEMA — e.g., storm surge, creek backup, septic-field saturation)?
• Any water-quality or seasonal algae-bloom issues that affect tenant satisfaction or short-term-rental demand?