12 Jake St · Ithaca, NY 14850

$38,500

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 962 sqft · Manufactured · 80 Days on market

Built 1984 Est $46k · 17% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Schools +5.4/10.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Rent growth +3.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Well maintained 2 bedroom, 1 bath home in Nates Floral Estates ( age requirement of 55 +). Home backs up to the inlet providing a water view from yard. New Furnace, water heater, gas cook top, walk way and shed. Roof was painted in 2024 and the second shed received a new roof. Spacious living inside provides sight lines from front dining area to living room. Enclosed sun porch provides a great space to start your gardens, read a book or just relax. Ask agent for park rules. Park rent is $585 monthly and includes road maintenance, water and sewer. All furniture / furnishings conveys with sale.

Key facts

• New furnace
• New water heater
• Gas cook top

Tags

• WATER VIEW
• NEW FURNACE
• NEW WATER HEATER
• GAS COOK TOP
• ENCLOSED SUN PORCH

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $38k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $2k ($23k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $38k).
• Recommended offer: $36k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 68.7% vs local median 5.3% in Ithaca — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#210 in NY, #3,240 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, health & safety A+; Watch: housing C-, employment D+, cost of living D.
• Ithaca City School District (urban): math 57% / reading 71% proficiency, ranked #195 of 590 in NY (top 33%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.2%/yr); 327 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 382 units permitted in Tompkins County in 2024 (208 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $2,829/mo this rent would consume 48% of the median local household income ($71k/yr) (locally 5169% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $266 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Tompkins County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 5.2% rent growth), your $11k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 80 days — a 6% lower offer ($36k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 4y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $36,190 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 80 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. This sits on a lake — are riparian / water-frontage rights deeded with the parcel? Any dock permits, shoreline easements, or HOA water-use restrictions?
7. What's the documented flood / surge / shoreline-erosion history here (FEMA AND non-FEMA — e.g., storm surge, creek backup, septic-field saturation)?
8. Any water-quality or seasonal algae-bloom issues that affect tenant satisfaction or short-term-rental demand?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 7.35% ✓
• Cap rate: 68.74%
• Cash-on-cash: 223.01%
• DSCR: 10.92
• GRM: 1.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $46,176
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
35 Jake St	0.07mi	2/1.0	900 (-6%)	13mo	$43,500	$48	75

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 5.22% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 12.47×
• Total profit: $123,647
• Equity at exit: $5,740

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 28.32×
• Total profit: $294,510
• Equity at exit: $3,329

Cash invested: $10,780 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14850

• Rents YoY: 5.2%
• Active inventory: 327
• Price-to-rent: 1.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,829 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$202
• Tax from tax record: −$13 /mo · $162/yr
• Insurance: −$16
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$594
• Net cashflow: $1,937

Break-even live

Break-even rent $377

Max offer price $38,500

Occupancy floor 27%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,959	-5% $1,948	+0% $1,937	+5% $1,926	+10% $1,915
Rent	-10% $1,713	-5% $1,825	+0% $1,937	+5% $2,049	+10% $2,160
Rate	-1.0pp $1,956	-0.5pp $1,947	base $1,937	+0.5pp $1,927	+1.0pp $1,917

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $9,625
• Closing costs: $1,155
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 8 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
324 Spencer Rd Ithaca, NY	2.0	1.0	850	$2,545	$2.99	44d	8	0.51mi
430 W State St Ithaca, NY	2.0	1.0–2.0	727	$3,410	$4.69	44d	34	0.52mi
323 Taughannock Blvd Ithaca, NY	2.0	1.0–2.5	1167	$6,402	$5.48	44d	6	0.57mi
139 Chestnut St Ithaca, NY	1.0–3.0	1.0	850	$1,745	$2.05	44d	1	0.60mi
320 Hillview Pl Ithaca, NY	2.0–3.0	1.0	800	$1,675	$2.09	44d	4	0.85mi
815 S Aurora St Ithaca, NY	2.0–4.0	1.0	936	$950	$1.01	44d	1	0.85mi
127 College Ave Ithaca, NY	3.0	1.0	958	$2,885	$3.01	44d	1	1.43mi
211 Linden Ave Ithaca, NY	3.0	1.5	760	$3,218	$4.23	44d	4	1.49mi

Listing history 29 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $38,500 Active 80 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $38,500 Active 79 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $38,500 Active 78 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $38,500 Active 77 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $38,500 Active 76 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $38,500 Active 74 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $38,500 Active 73 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $38,500 Active 71 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $38,500 Active 70 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $38,500 Active 69 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $38,500 Active 68 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $38,500 Active 65 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $38,500 Active 63 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $38,500 Active 62 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $38,500 Active 61 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $38,500 Active 60 DOM
17. 2026-03-31
    listed $38,500 Active 599-char remark

    Show marketing remark (599 chars)

    Well maintained 2 bedroom, 1 bath home in Nates Floral Estates ( age requirement of 55 +). Home backs up to the inlet providing a water view from yard. New Furnace, water heater, gas cook top, walk way and shed. Roof was painted in 2024 and the second shed received a new roof. Spacious living inside provides sight lines from front dining area to living room. Enclosed sun porch provides a great space to start your gardens, read a book or just relax. Ask agent for park rules. Park rent is $585 monthly and includes road maintenance, water and sewer. All furniture / furnishings conveys with sale.

18. 2026-02-18
    price $39,500
19. 2025-12-01
    price $43,000
20. 2025-10-29
    price $43,500
21. 2025-09-18
    price $44,000
22. 2025-09-17
    status Active
23. 2025-08-22
    status Pending
24. 2025-07-30
    price $47,500
25. 2025-07-08
    listed $48,500 Active
26. 2022-08-18
    soldstatus $34,500
27. 2022-08-18
    soldstatus $34,500
28. 2022-07-25
    listed $29,500
29. 2022-07-25
    listed $29,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $162 · $13/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $406 · $34/mo
• Expected delta: +$244/yr (+$20/mo · 151.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 7/10 Severe FEMA zone X · 77% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 8 d/yr ≥93°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low 0% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $33,947
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,157
• − Property taxes: −$162
• − Insurance: −$990
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,716
• − Management: −$2,716
• − Depreciation: −$1,120
• Taxable income: $24,087
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$5,781
• After-tax cash flow: $17,462/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Ithaca City School District
• NCES district ID: 3615570
• Math proficiency: 57% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 71% ▲ 11.00%
• Median HH income: $46,528
• Composite: 54.01/100
• National rank: #1397
• State rank: #195 of 590 in NY

Livability — Ithaca

• Score: 77/100
• State rank: #210
• US rank: #3240

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living D Crime C Employment D+ Housing C- Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Ithaca, NY
• County: Tompkins County · 68,610 people
• City population: 68,610
• Metro: Ithaca, NY
• Population (ZIP): 68,610
• Household income: $71,445
• Rent vs Own: 55.2% rent · 44.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 5169.0

Population outlook (Tompkins County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 113,958 people
• By 2030: 118,774 · +4.2%
• By 2040: 125,927 · +10.5%
• By 2050: 133,599 · +17.2%
• By 2075: 156,759 · +37.6%
• By 2100: 169,896 · +49.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (68%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 68% Asian 13% Hispanic / Latino 8% Two or more races 8% Black 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Italian 3% Scotch-Irish 2%
• Foreign-born: 18% · China, Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 79% English-only · Chinese 5% Spanish 4% Other Indo-European 4%

Political lean MEDSL · Tompkins

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+50.6) · D 75.3% · R 24.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: +8.6pp toward D · 2008: 42.1pp · 2024: 50.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+50.6 2020: D+49.2 2016: D+42.1 2012: D+39.8 2008: D+42.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -276.59%
• Current HPI: 389.7215
• Rent YoY: ▲ 5.22%
• Metro: Ithaca, NY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+30.5% since first listed

13 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-31 Listed $38,500 IBRMLS
• 2026-02-18 Price Changed $39,500 IBRMLS
• 2025-12-01 Price Changed $43,000 IBRMLS
• 2025-10-29 Price Changed $43,500 IBRMLS
• 2025-09-18 Price Changed $44,000 IBRMLS
• 2025-09-17 Relisted — IBRMLS
• 2025-08-22 Pending — IBRMLS
• 2025-07-30 Price Changed $47,500 IBRMLS
• 2025-07-08 Listed $48,500 IBRMLS
• 2022-08-18 Sold (MLS) $34,500 IBRMLS
• 2022-08-18 Sold (MLS) $34,500 IBRMLS
• 2022-07-25 Listed $29,500 IBRMLS
• 2022-07-25 Listed $29,500 IBRMLS

Property tax history

-2.8%/yr

Latest (2023): $162 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.