7222 Timberlane Dr

Fairview, TN 37062

$299,000D

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,050 sqft · Built 1980 · SingleFamily · Active · 65 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,166/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,568
• Tax + insurance: −$247
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$455
• Net cashflow: $-104/mo
• Annual: $-1,245/yr
• Cap rate: 5.88%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.49%
• DSCR: 0.93
• 1% rule: 0.72%
• Cash to close: $83,720

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $299k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-104 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $281k (6.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $217k (27.6% below list).
• It's been on market 65 days — a 6% lower offer ($281k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $217k (27.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#31 in TN) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, health & safety A; Watch: schools D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Williamson County (rural): math 58% / reading 59% proficiency, ranked #1 of 139 in TN (top 1%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 9% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: 355 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 9d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,994 units permitted in Williamson County in 2024 (637 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Williamson County population projected at +59% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.9% vs local median 1.8% in Fairview — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 65 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 28% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.