7222 Timberlane Dr · Fairview, TN 37062

$299,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,050 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 62 Days on market

Built 1980 0.80 ac lot $285/sqft · 5% below area Est $315k · 5% under ↓ 3% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.4/30.0
• ARV discount +9.8/15.0
• Schools +5.5/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• DSCR +3.3/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.2/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This home offers the perfect blend of country living and suburban convenience, set on a spacious 0.80-acre corner lot. Inside, you’ll find a comfortable, easy-to-manage layout.The home sits on a full basement with a one-car garage, offering additional storage or flexible space. Enjoy the extra room outdoors while still being right in the heart of Fairview—with quick access to shopping, Bowie Nature Park, and everyday conveniences. This is a rare opportunity to enjoy both space and location in highly desirable Williamson County.

Key facts

• 0.8 acre lot
• Garage
• Built 1980

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $299k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-104 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $281k (6.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $217k (27.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $217k (27.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.9% vs local median 1.8% in Fairview — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#31 in TN) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, health & safety A; Watch: schools D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Williamson County (rural): math 58% / reading 59% proficiency, ranked #1 of 139 in TN (top 1%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 9% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: 355 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 8d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,994 units permitted in Williamson County in 2024 (637 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Williamson County population projected at +59% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 62 days — a 6% lower offer ($281k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $216,616 (27.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 62 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 28% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.72% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.88%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.49%
• DSCR: 0.93
• GRM: 11.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $315,235
• List price: $299,000
• Delta: -5.15%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
7105 Red Maple Ct	0.20mi	3/1.0	1,050 (0%)	15mo	$300,000	$286	78
7109 Timberlane Dr	0.28mi	3/1.0	1,050 (0%)	15mo	$350,000	$333	74
7122 Meadow View Dr	0.54mi	3/1.0	1,050 (0%)	2mo	$285,000	$271	74
7210 White Oak Dr	0.31mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,050 (0%)	4mo	$290,000	$276	73
7704 Chester Rd	0.40mi	3/1.0	1,050 (0%)	11mo	$315,000	$300	72
7110 Meadow View Dr	0.63mi	3/1.0	1,050 (0%)	2mo	$300,000	$286	69
7103 Dogwood Ct	0.26mi	3/2.0	1,144 (+9%)	8mo	$325,000	$284	62
7115 Tupelo Dr	0.64mi	3/1.5	1,050 (0%)	8mo	$307,500	$293	61
7218 Dogwood Dr	0.50mi	3/1.5	1,100 (+5%)	14mo	$360,000	$327	56
7202 Chester Rd	0.54mi	3/2.0	1,153 (+10%)	1mo	$339,000	$294	54
7708 Chester Rd	0.44mi	3/1.5	1,140 (+9%)	14mo	$363,000	$318	52
7195 Chester Rd	0.57mi	3/2.0	1,119 (+7%)	16mo	$350,000	$313	45

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -18.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.34×
• Total profit: $-55,179
• Equity at exit: $44,582

10-year hold

• IRR: -11.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.32×
• Total profit: $-57,050
• Equity at exit: $25,852

Cash invested: $83,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Tennessee: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

14-day notice (URLTA); generally landlord-favorable; Nashville court paced moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 37062

• Home prices YoY: -21.0%
• Active inventory: 355
• Price-to-rent: 11.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,166 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,568
• Tax from tax record: −$122 /mo · $1,469/yr
• Insurance: −$125
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$455
• Net cashflow: $-104

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,297

Max offer price $280,677

Occupancy floor 100%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $66	-5% $-19	+0% $-104	+5% $-188	+10% $-273
Rent	-10% $-275	-5% $-189	+0% $-104	+5% $-18	+10% $67
Rate	-1.0pp $47	-0.5pp $-28	base $-104	+0.5pp $-181	+1.0pp $-260

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $74,750
• Closing costs: $8,970
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
7104 White Oak Dr Fairview, TN	3.0	1.0	1050	$1,745	$1.66	8d	1	0.13mi
7184 Chester Rd Fairview, TN	3.0	2.0	1165	$1,850	$1.59	17d	1	0.59mi
7901 Chester Rd Fairview, TN	3.0	1.0	1050	$1,830	$1.74	4d	1	0.68mi

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $299,000 Active 62 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   pricedays on market $299,000 Active 61 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $319,900 Active 60 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $319,900 Active 59 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $319,900 Active 57 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $319,900 Active 56 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $319,900 Active 53 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $319,900 Active 52 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $319,900 Active 51 DOM
10. 2026-06-02
    pricedays on market $319,900 Active 46 DOM
11. 2026-06-01
    days on market $339,900 Active 45 DOM
12. 2026-05-31
    days on market $339,900 Active 44 DOM
13. 2026-05-19
    price $339,900 545-char remark

    Show marketing remark (545 chars)

    This home offers the perfect blend of country living and suburban convenience, set on a spacious 0.80-acre corner lot. Inside, you’ll find a comfortable, easy-to-manage layout.The home sits on a full basement with a one-car garage, offering additional storage or flexible space. Enjoy the extra room outdoors while still being right in the heart of Fairview—with quick access to shopping, Bowie Nature Park, and everyday conveniences. This is a rare opportunity to enjoy both space and location in highly desirable Williamson County.

14. 2026-04-17
    listed $350,000 Active 545-char remark

    Show marketing remark (545 chars)

    This home offers the perfect blend of country living and suburban convenience, set on a spacious 0.80-acre corner lot. Inside, you’ll find a comfortable, easy-to-manage layout.The home sits on a full basement with a one-car garage, offering additional storage or flexible space. Enjoy the extra room outdoors while still being right in the heart of Fairview—with quick access to shopping, Bowie Nature Park, and everyday conveniences. This is a rare opportunity to enjoy both space and location in highly desirable Williamson County.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TN · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,469 · $122/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,123 · $177/mo
• Expected delta: +$654/yr (+$54/mo · 44.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 10% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,994
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,749
• − Property taxes: −$1,469
• − Insurance: −$1,495
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,080
• − Management: −$2,080
• − Depreciation: −$8,698
• Taxable loss: −$6,576
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,578
• After-tax cash flow: $334/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Williamson County
• NCES district ID: 4704530
• Math proficiency: 58% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 59% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $103,392
• Composite: 54.94/100
• National rank: #1307
• State rank: #1 of 139 in TN

Livability — Fairview

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #31
• US rank: #5759

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A- Crime A+ Employment A- Housing A+ Health & safety A User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Fairview, TN
• County: Williamson County · 237,211 people
• City population: 13,851
• Metro: Nashville-Davidson--Murfreesboro--Franklin, TN
• Population (ZIP): 13,851
• Household income: $91,750
• Rent vs Own: 21.3% rent · 78.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 179.0

Population outlook (Williamson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 275,925 people
• By 2030: 308,630 · +11.9%
• By 2040: 374,403 · +35.7%
• By 2050: 438,644 · +59.0%
• By 2075: 592,763 · +114.8%
• By 2100: 691,828 · +150.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (88%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 88% Hispanic / Latino 9% Two or more races 7%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5% Cuban 2%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Serbian 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 5%

Political lean MEDSL · Williamson

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+32.4) · D 33.0% · R 65.4% · Other 1.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.1pp toward D · 2008: -39.5pp · 2024: -32.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+32.4 2020: R+26.1 2016: R+35.5 2012: R+46.8 2008: R+39.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -95.63%
• Current HPI: 360.3455
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Nashville-Davidson--Murfreesboro--Franklin, TN
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.78%
• F500 in state: 22

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	3	$91B
▸Retail	3	$72B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$88B
▸Paper / Packaging	1	$19B
▸Insurance	1	$13B
▸Energy	1	$12B

Price history

-2.9% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-19 Price Changed $339,900 REALTRACS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-17 Listed $350,000 REALTRACS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+4.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,469 · +10.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.