5218 Beach Dr

Lower Grand Lagoon, FL 32408

$795,000F

3 bd · 6.0 ba · 2,748 sqft · Built 1992 · MultiFamily · Active · 99 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $4,448/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$4,169
• Tax + insurance: −$711
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$934
• Net cashflow: $-1,366/mo
• Annual: $-16,397/yr
• Cap rate: 4.23%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.37%
• DSCR: 0.67
• 1% rule: 0.56%
• Cash to close: $222,600

Investor read

• This is a 1×1bd/2ba + 2×2bd/2ba units multifamily listed at $795k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1k ($-16k/yr) — negative. Per door: $-455/mo.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $554k (30.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $445k (44.1% below list).
• It's been on market 99 days — a 9% lower offer ($723k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $445k (44.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $5k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $24k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#518 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, employment B; Watch: schools D-, amenities F, commute F.
• Bay (suburban): math 51% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #29 of 73 in FL (top 40%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.5%/yr); 1022 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 2,473 units permitted in Bay County in 2024 (559 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Bay County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 4.2% vs local median 2.1% in Lower Grand Lagoon — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• At $4,448/mo this rent would consume 66% of the median local household income ($81k/yr) (locally 817% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 99 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 44% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
• What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?