5218 Beach Dr · Lower Grand Lagoon, FL 32408

$795,000

3 bd · 6.0 ba · 2,748 sqft · MultiFamily public records · 99 Days on market

Built 1992 0.27 ac lot $289/sqft · 50% above area Est $562k · 41% over ↓ 6% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +6.4/30.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +3.1/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +0.7/10.0
• 1% rule +0.6/10.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Multi-family units

County records classify this as Multi-Family (2-4 Unit). Listing-text estimate: 3 units. confirmed

Listing remarks MLS

Attention investors! Income-producing triplex just a short walk to the beach in PCB (4 min walk to Schooners). Perfect for short-term rentals, vacation stays, or long-term tenants. Properties this close to the sand rarely hit the market--strong rental potential and multiple income streams! A - 1 bed + loft, 2 baths. B - 2 bed, 2 bath. C - 2 bed, 2 bath.

Key facts

• 0.27 acre lot
• Built 1992
• Listed 98 days

Tags

• INCOME PRODUCING TRIPLEX
• SHORT WALK TO THE BEACH
• STRONG RENTAL POTENTIAL
• MULTIPLE INCOME STREAMS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1×1bd/2ba + 2×2bd/2ba units multifamily listed at $795k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1k ($-16k/yr) — negative. Per door: $-455/mo.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $554k (30.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $445k (44.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $445k (44.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.2% vs local median 2.1% in Lower Grand Lagoon — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#518 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, employment B; Watch: schools D-, amenities F, commute F.
• Bay (suburban): math 51% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #29 of 73 in FL (top 40%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.5%/yr); 1022 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 2,473 units permitted in Bay County in 2024 (559 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $4,448/mo this rent would consume 66% of the median local household income ($81k/yr) (locally 817% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $5k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $24k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Bay County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 99 days — a 9% lower offer ($723k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $444,800 (44.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 99 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 44% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
4. What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.56% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.23%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.37%
• DSCR: 0.67
• GRM: 14.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $562,396
• List price: $795,000
• Delta: 41.36%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 7 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.55% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -29.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.02×
• Total profit: $-218,168
• Equity at exit: $118,537

10-year hold

• IRR: -32.5%
• Equity multiple: -0.40×
• Total profit: $-311,453
• Equity at exit: $68,737

Cash invested: $222,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32408

• Rents YoY: 2.5%
• Active inventory: 1022
• Price-to-rent: 46.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $4,448 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$4,169
• Tax from tax record: −$380 /mo · $4,560/yr
• Insurance: −$331
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$934
• Net cashflow: $-1,366

Break-even live

Break-even rent $6,178

Max offer price $553,614

Occupancy floor —

3-unit breakdown (identical units grouped — click to expand)

Units	Beds	Baths	Est. rent
1× unit	1	2	$1,438
▸ 2× units	2	2	$3,010
Total (3 units)			$4,448

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $198,750
• Closing costs: $23,850
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
6238 Thomas Dr Panama City, FL	4.0	4.0	2367	$4,000	$1.69	21d	1	0.89mi

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $795,000 Active 99 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $795,000 Active 98 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $795,000 Active 97 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $795,000 Active 96 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $795,000 Active 95 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $795,000 Active 93 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $795,000 Active 92 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $795,000 Active 90 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $795,000 Active 89 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $795,000 Active 88 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $795,000 Active 87 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $795,000 Active 84 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $795,000 Active 83 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $795,000 Active 82 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $795,000 Active 81 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $795,000 Active 80 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $795,000 Active 79 DOM
18. 2026-04-02
    price $795,000 355-char remark

    Show marketing remark (355 chars)

    Attention investors! Income-producing triplex just a short walk to the beach in PCB (4 min walk to Schooners). Perfect for short-term rentals, vacation stays, or long-term tenants. Properties this close to the sand rarely hit the market--strong rental potential and multiple income streams! A - 1 bed + loft, 2 baths. B - 2 bed, 2 bath. C - 2 bed, 2 bath.

19. 2026-03-12
    listed $845,000 Active 355-char remark

    Show marketing remark (355 chars)

    Attention investors! Income-producing triplex just a short walk to the beach in PCB (4 min walk to Schooners). Perfect for short-term rentals, vacation stays, or long-term tenants. Properties this close to the sand rarely hit the market--strong rental potential and multiple income streams! A - 1 bed + loft, 2 baths. B - 2 bed, 2 bath. C - 2 bed, 2 bath.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $4,560 · $380/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $6,598 · $550/mo
• Expected delta: +$2,038/yr (+$170/mo · 44.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 21% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $53,376
• − Mortgage interest: −$44,532
• − Property taxes: −$4,560
• − Insurance: −$3,975
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$4,270
• − Management: −$4,270
• − Depreciation: −$23,127
• Taxable loss: −$31,359
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$7,526
• After-tax cash flow: $-8,871/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Bay
• NCES district ID: 1200090
• Math proficiency: 51% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 51% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $47,740
• Composite: 43.41/100
• National rank: #3014
• State rank: #29 of 73 in FL

Livability — Lower Grand Lagoon

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #518
• US rank: #9567

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B Crime A+ Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings D+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lower Grand Lagoon, FL
• County: Bay County · 163,593 people
• Metro: Panama City, FL
• Population (ZIP): 18,832
• Household income: $80,822
• Rent vs Own: 37.0% rent · 63.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 817.0

Population outlook (Bay County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 206,264 people
• By 2030: 217,740 · +5.6%
• By 2040: 238,738 · +15.7%
• By 2050: 255,545 · +23.9%
• By 2075: 288,295 · +39.8%
• By 2100: 288,638 · +39.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (81%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 81% Hispanic / Latino 7% Two or more races 6% Black 3% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Lithuanian 4% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 5% Russian/Polish/Slavic 4% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Bay

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+47.4) · D 25.8% · R 73.1% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -6.6pp toward R · 2008: -40.7pp · 2024: -47.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+47.4 2020: R+43.5 2016: R+46.3 2012: R+43.6 2008: R+40.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -202.52%
• Current HPI: 246.9126
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.55%
• Metro: Panama City, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-5.9% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-02 Price Changed $795,000 CPARMLS
• 2026-03-12 Listed $845,000 CPARMLS

Property tax history

+4.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,560 · +7.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.