65 Ellis Rd

Newnan, GA 30265

$275,000D

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,272 sqft · Built 1993 · SingleFamily · Active · 503 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,102/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,442
• Tax + insurance: −$260
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$441
• Net cashflow: $-41/mo
• Annual: $-497/yr
• Cap rate: 6.11%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.65%
• DSCR: 0.97
• 1% rule: 0.76%
• Cash to close: $77,000

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $275k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-41 ($-497/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $268k (2.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $210k (23.6% below list).
• It's been on market 503 days — a 12% lower offer ($242k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $210k (23.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#184 in GA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, cost of living A-, employment B; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Coweta County (rural): math 37% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #36 of 174 in GA (top 21%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Welch Elementary School (math 29% / reading 32%, grade F, #620 of 1,228 statewide, top 51%, 948 students, 53% FRL); Lee Middle School (math 35% / reading 47%, grade F, #135 of 470 statewide, top 29%, 743 students, 34% FRL); East Coweta High School (math 22% / reading 38%, grade F, #135 of 424 statewide, top 32%, 3,212 students, 30% FRL) — zoned schools at 39% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-2.4%/yr); 320 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 17d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 963 units permitted in Coweta County in 2024 (8 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Coweta County population projected at +31% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 8 sale attempts since 3y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $204k; 35% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 6→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.1% vs local median 3.8% in Newnan — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 503 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 24% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.