65 Ellis Rd · Newnan, GA 30265

$275,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,272 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 503 Days on market

Built 1993 1.14 ac lot $216/sqft · 8% below area Est $300k · 8% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.5/30.0
• ARV discount +11.3/15.0
• DSCR +3.7/10.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• 1% rule +2.6/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +1.9/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Tenant in place until 7/1/2026! 3 Bed 2 Bath ranch house, recently remodeled, private lot, in great school district. Lease is NOT being renewed, therefore, property will be available beginning 7/1/2026 for Single Family Buyers. Will need minimum of 48 hour notice to schedule showings. Thanks!

Key facts

• 1.14 acre lot
• Built 1993
• Listed 503 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $275k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-41 ($-497/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $268k (2.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $210k (23.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $210k (23.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.1% vs local median 3.8% in Newnan — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#184 in GA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, cost of living A-, employment B; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Coweta County (rural): math 37% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #36 of 174 in GA (top 21%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Welch Elementary School (math 29% / reading 32%, grade F, #620 of 1,228 statewide, top 51%, 948 students, 53% FRL); Lee Middle School (math 35% / reading 47%, grade F, #135 of 470 statewide, top 29%, 743 students, 34% FRL); East Coweta High School (math 22% / reading 38%, grade F, #135 of 424 statewide, top 32%, 3,212 students, 30% FRL) — zoned schools at 39% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-2.4%/yr); 320 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 17d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 963 units permitted in Coweta County in 2024 (8 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Coweta County population projected at +31% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 503 days — a 12% lower offer ($242k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 8 sale attempts since 3y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $204k; 35% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 6→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $210,157 (23.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 503 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 24% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.76% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.11%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.65%
• DSCR: 0.97
• GRM: 10.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $300,306
• List price: $275,000
• Delta: -8.43%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3967 Lower Fayetteville Rd	0.57mi	3/2.0	1,341 (+5%)	15mo	$245,000	$183	52

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -20.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.31×
• Total profit: $-53,449
• Equity at exit: $41,003

10-year hold

• IRR: -21.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.04×
• Total profit: $-74,107
• Equity at exit: $23,777

Cash invested: $77,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Georgia: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Magistrate court evictions in 10-30 days; no rent control; preempted; few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 30265

• Home prices YoY: -27.6%
• Rents YoY: -2.4%
• Active inventory: 320
• Price-to-rent: 10.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,102 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,442
• Tax from tax record: −$145 /mo · $1,739/yr
• Insurance: −$115
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$441
• Net cashflow: $-41

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,154

Max offer price $267,685

Occupancy floor 97%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $114	-5% $36	+0% $-41	+5% $-119	+10% $-197
Rent	-10% $-207	-5% $-124	+0% $-41	+5% $42	+10% $125
Rate	-1.0pp $97	-0.5pp $29	base $-41	+0.5pp $-113	+1.0pp $-185

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $68,750
• Closing costs: $8,250
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
200 Masters Way Newnan, GA	3.0	2.0	1755	$2,295	$1.31	7d	1	0.80mi
125 Elberta Dr Newnan, GA	3.0	2.0	1500	$1,845	$1.23	17d	1	0.96mi
125 Elberta Dr Newnan, GA	3.0	2.0	1500	$1,845	$1.23	0d	1	0.96mi
259 Sawgrass Manor Dr Newnan, GA	3.0	2.0	1671	$2,040	$1.22	26d	1	1.00mi
180 Nectarine Dr Newnan, GA	4.0	2.0	1704	$1,990	$1.17	45d	1	1.04mi

Listing history 38 events

1. 2026-06-21
   statusdays on market $275,000 Active 503 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $275,000 Price Change 500 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   pricestatusdays on market $275,000 Price Change 499 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $285,000 Active 498 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $285,000 Active 497 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $285,000 Active 495 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $285,000 Active 491 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $285,000 Active 490 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $285,000 Active 489 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $285,000 Active 486 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $285,000 Active 485 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $285,000 Active 484 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $285,000 Active 483 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $285,000 Active 482 DOM
15. 2025-11-04
    price $285,000 296-char remark

    Show marketing remark (296 chars)

    Tenant in place until 7/1/2026! 3 Bed 2 Bath ranch house, recently remodeled, private lot, in great school district. Lease is NOT being renewed, therefore, property will be available beginning 7/1/2026 for Single Family Buyers. Will need minimum of 48 hour notice to schedule showings. Thanks!

16. 2025-06-06
    price $275,000 296-char remark

    Show marketing remark (296 chars)

    Tenant in place until 7/1/2026! 3 Bed 2 Bath ranch house, recently remodeled, private lot, in great school district. Lease is NOT being renewed, therefore, property will be available beginning 7/1/2026 for Single Family Buyers. Will need minimum of 48 hour notice to schedule showings. Thanks!

17. 2025-02-03
    listed $283,000 New 296-char remark

    Show marketing remark (296 chars)

    Tenant in place until 7/1/2026! 3 Bed 2 Bath ranch house, recently remodeled, private lot, in great school district. Lease is NOT being renewed, therefore, property will be available beginning 7/1/2026 for Single Family Buyers. Will need minimum of 48 hour notice to schedule showings. Thanks!

18. 2024-06-20
    historical $1,825
19. 2024-05-31
    listed $1,825
20. 2024-05-30
    historical $1,825
21. 2024-05-27
    price $1,825
22. 2024-05-23
    listed $1,895
23. 2024-05-09
    historical $1,895
24. 2024-04-12
    listed $1,895
25. 2024-04-12
    historical $2,000
26. 2024-04-03
    status Back On Market
27. 2024-04-03
    historical
28. 2024-03-21
    listed $2,000
29. 2024-03-15
    status Under Contract
30. 2024-03-06
    price $275,000
31. 2024-03-06
    price $279,000
32. 2024-02-12
    price $287,000
33. 2024-01-30
    listed $295,000 New
34. 2023-07-10
    soldstatus $204,000 Sold
35. 2023-06-10
    status Under Contract
36. 2023-05-15
    price $209,000
37. 2023-04-07
    price $224,900
38. 2023-03-03
    listed $234,900 New

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast GA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,739 · $145/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,530 · $211/mo
• Expected delta: +$791/yr (+$66/mo · 45.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 6 d/yr ≥104°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,219
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,404
• − Property taxes: −$1,739
• − Insurance: −$1,375
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,018
• − Management: −$2,018
• − Depreciation: −$8,000
• Taxable loss: −$5,335
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,280
• After-tax cash flow: $783/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Coweta County
• NCES district ID: 1301500
• Math proficiency: 37% ▼ -16.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $62,978
• Composite: 35.72/100
• National rank: #4860
• State rank: #36 of 174 in GA

Livability — Newnan

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #184
• US rank: #11578

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A- Crime F Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Coweta County · 148,589 people
• City population: 101,637
• Metro: Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Alpharetta, GA
• Population (ZIP): 39,942
• Household income: $108,144
• Rent vs Own: 23.8% rent · 76.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 610.0

Population outlook (Coweta County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 162,063 people
• By 2030: 173,373 · +7.0%
• By 2040: 194,658 · +20.1%
• By 2050: 212,246 · +31.0%
• By 2075: 246,544 · +52.1%
• By 2100: 257,059 · +58.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (68%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 68% Black 18% Hispanic / Latino 8% Two or more races 6% Asian 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Lithuanian 3% Italian 3%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, Vietnam, South Korea
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 5% Other Indo-European 1% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Coweta

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+33.9) · D 32.7% · R 66.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.3pp toward D · 2008: -41.2pp · 2024: -33.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+33.9 2020: R+35.5 2016: R+42.3 2012: R+44.1 2008: R+41.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -84.80%
• Current HPI: 222.3661
• Rent YoY: ▼ -2.35%
• Metro: Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Alpharetta, GA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.66%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in GA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Paper / Packaging	2	$29B
▸Retail	1	$160B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$91B
▸Airlines	1	$62B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$47B
▸Utilities	1	$25B

Price history

+21.3% since first listed

24 events — show timeline

• 2025-11-04 Price Changed $285,000 GAMLS
• 2025-06-06 Price Changed $275,000 GAMLS
• 2025-02-03 Listed $283,000 GAMLS
• 2024-06-20 Rental Removed $1,825 GAMLS
• 2024-05-31 Listed for Rent $1,825 GAMLS
• 2024-05-30 Rental Removed $1,825 GAMLS
• 2024-05-27 Price Changed $1,825 GAMLS
• 2024-05-23 Listed for Rent $1,895 GAMLS
• 2024-05-09 Rental Removed $1,895 GAMLS
• 2024-04-12 Listed for Rent $1,895 GAMLS
• 2024-04-12 Rental Removed $2,000 GAMLS
• 2024-04-03 Relisted — GAMLS
• 2024-04-03 Listing Removed — GAMLS
• 2024-03-21 Listed for Rent $2,000 GAMLS
• 2024-03-15 Pending — GAMLS
• 2024-03-06 Price Changed $275,000 GAMLS
• 2024-03-06 Price Changed $279,000 GAMLS
• 2024-02-12 Price Changed $287,000 GAMLS
• 2024-01-30 Listed $295,000 GAMLS
• 2023-07-10 Sold (MLS) $204,000 GAMLS
• 2023-06-10 Pending — GAMLS
• 2023-05-15 Price Changed $209,000 GAMLS
• 2023-04-07 Price Changed $224,900 GAMLS
• 2023-03-03 Listed $234,900 GAMLS

Property tax history

+4.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,739 · +3.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.