38012 Calle Quedo

Murrieta, CA 92562

$489,000D-

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,223 sqft · Built 1999 · Manufactured · Coming Soon · 11 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $3,717/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,564
• Tax + insurance: −$370
• HOA: −$98
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$781
• Net cashflow: $-96/mo
• Annual: $-1,155/yr
• Cap rate: 6.06%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.84%
• DSCR: 0.96
• 1% rule: 0.76%
• Cash to close: $136,920

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $489k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-96 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $472k (3.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $372k (24.0% below list).
• Only 11 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $372k (24.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $15k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#279 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety D+, commute F, cost of living F.
• Murrieta Valley Unified (suburban): math 51% / reading 64% proficiency, ranked #255 of 1,400 in CA (top 18%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.7%/yr); 354 active listings in the ZIP; 27 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 52% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 9,195 units permitted in Riverside County in 2024 (1,512 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Riverside County population projected at +22% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• Current owner paid $270k; list at $489k implies a 81% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.1% vs local median 3.0% in Murrieta — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 39% of the median local income ($114k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.