38012 Calle Quedo · Murrieta, CA 92562

$489,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,223 sqft · Manufactured public records · 11 Days on market

Built 1999 0.26 ac lot Est $494k · at est. $98/mo HOA · 3% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.2/30.0
• ARV discount +7.9/15.0
• Schools +5.3/10.0
• DSCR +3.6/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• 1% rule +2.6/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.3/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Beautiful curb appeal manufactured home in 55+ Golf Knolls community. A little paint and this will be the perfect home to retire in. Amazing senior community in Murrieta.

Key facts

• 0.26 acre lot
• 2 garage spots
• Community pool

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Living area and lot size sourced from public records; Year built sourced from assessor; Property does not include an ADU
• Financial info: Special assessments
• HOA & community: Part of the Golf Knolls association; Monthly association fee of $85; Community amenities include pool, clubhouse, and spa; Senior community

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage; Two uncovered parking spaces; Four total parking spaces
• Utilities: Public sewer; District/public water
• Home design: Manufactured house; Single-story; Located at entry level 1; Planned development community; No shared/common walls; Situated on a cul-de-sac
• Construction: Certified 433A foundation
• Exterior features: Covered patio; Association pool

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen island; Electric range; Dishwasher
• Bedrooms: Three bedrooms on the main level; All bedrooms on ground floor
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms (main level)
• Heating & cooling: Central cooling
• Interior features: Cathedral/vaulted ceilings; Den
• Laundry & utility: Laundry in an individual room

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $489k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-96 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $472k (3.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $372k (24.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $372k (24.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.1% vs local median 3.0% in Murrieta — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#279 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety D+, commute F, cost of living F.
• Murrieta Valley Unified (suburban): math 51% / reading 64% proficiency, ranked #255 of 1,400 in CA (top 18%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.7%/yr); 354 active listings in the ZIP; 27 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 52% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 9,195 units permitted in Riverside County in 2024 (1,512 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 39% of the median local income ($114k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $15k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Riverside County population projected at +22% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 11 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Current owner paid $270k; list at $489k implies a 81% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $371,729 (24.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.76% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.06%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.84%
• DSCR: 0.96
• GRM: 11.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $493,506
• Comps found: 8

Show comp detail 8 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
28771 Via Estrella	0.19mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,061 (-7%)	3mo	$405,000	$197	72
38445 Via Taffia	0.53mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,280 (+3%)	9mo	$490,000	$215	59
38353 Via La Colina	0.33mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,040 (-8%)	10mo	$499,000	$245	58
28960 Camino Alba	0.36mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,016 (-9%)	9mo	$338,900	$168	53
29000 Calle Del Buho	0.44mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,093 (-6%)	15mo	$455,000	$217	52
29060 Calle Cisne	0.59mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,160 (-3%)	17mo	$480,000	$222	49
29141 Calle Cisne	0.61mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,036 (-8%)	23mo	$475,000	$233	34
38685 Via Taffia	0.67mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,896 (-15%)	11mo	$475,000	$251	30

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -20.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.30×
• Total profit: $-96,417
• Equity at exit: $72,911

10-year hold

• IRR: -21.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.02×
• Total profit: $-134,587
• Equity at exit: $42,280

Cash invested: $136,920 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 92562

• Home prices YoY: -27.7%
• Rents YoY: -0.7%
• Active inventory: 354
• Price-to-rent: 11.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,717 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,564
• Tax from tax record: −$167 /mo · $2,001/yr
• Insurance: −$204
• HOA: −$98
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$781
• Net cashflow: $-96

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,839

Max offer price $472,004

Occupancy floor 98%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $122,250
• Closing costs: $14,670
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 27 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
39484 Via Montalvo Murrieta, CA	3.0	2.5	1808	$6,500	$3.60	43d	1	0.34mi
25509 Brownestone Way Murrieta, CA	4.0	3.0	2410	$3,495	$1.45	43d	1	0.63mi
39730 Avenida Palizada Murrieta, CA	4.0	3.0	2141	$4,950	$2.31	43d	1	0.65mi
34667 Windrow Rd Unit A1 Murrieta, CA	4.0	3.0	2319	$3,500	$1.51	43d	1	0.66mi
29403 Via Espada Murrieta, CA	4.0	3.0	2995	$3,295	$1.10	14d	1	0.75mi
37978 Spur Dr Murrieta, CA	4.0	3.0	2995	$3,450	$1.15	21d	1	0.84mi
39656 Columbia Union Dr Unit C Murrieta, CA	3.0	2.0	1408	$2,925	$2.08	24d	1	0.88mi
29166 Branwin St Murrieta, CA	5.0	2.5	2962	$3,795	$1.28	2d	1	0.92mi
25141 Vista Oriente Murrieta, CA	4.0	3.0	2103	$3,700	$1.76	43d	1	0.93mi
39668 Princeton Way Unit C Murrieta, CA	3.0	2.0	1408	$2,900	$2.06	5d	1	0.94mi
39863 Ranchwood Dr Murrieta, CA	4.0	3.0	2090	$2,995	$1.43	5d	1	1.00mi
26133 Williams Way Murrieta, CA	3.0	2.0	1408	$3,100	$2.20	43d	1	1.02mi
39875 Alpine Union St Unit B Murrieta, CA	3.0	2.5	1654	$2,795	$1.69	43d	1	1.06mi
25455 Knollwood Dr Murrieta, CA	4.0	3.0	1904	$3,795	$1.99	12d	1	1.09mi
29626 Yorkton Rd Murrieta, CA	5.0	3.0	2736	$8,200	$3.00	43d	1	1.09mi
39930 Alpine Union St Murrieta, CA	3.0	2.5	1654	$2,895	$1.75	5d	1	1.09mi
26254 Douglass Union Ln Murrieta, CA	3.0	2.5	2601	$3,095	$1.19	43d	1	1.10mi
25268 Shadescale Dr Murrieta, CA	4.0	2.0	1493	$2,940	$1.97	43d	1	1.14mi
29324 Calle Gaviota Murrieta, CA	3.0	3.0	1854	$3,150	$1.70	43d	1	1.15mi
26440 Saint Ives Ct Murrieta, CA	4.0	2.0	1740	$3,495	$2.01	4d	1	1.26mi
40114 Calle Real Murrieta, CA	4.0	3.0	2377	$3,400	$1.43	12d	1	1.28mi
40213 Calle Real Unit 40213 Murrieta, CA	3.0	2.5	1427	$2,795	$1.96	5d	1	1.32mi
26694 Evergreen Ave Murrieta, CA	4.0	3.0	2913	$4,450	$1.53	43d	1	1.38mi
39990 Gibraltar Dr Murrieta, CA	5.0	3.0	2996	$9,000	$3.00	43d	1	1.44mi
40120 Calle Yorba Vista Murrieta, CA	3.0	2.5	1700	$3,200	$1.88	43d	1	1.45mi
40319 Calle Real Murrieta, CA	3.0	2.5	1427	$2,900	$2.03	24d	1	1.46mi
26775 Silver Oaks Dr Murrieta, CA	4.0	3.0	1732	$3,100	$1.79	12d	1	1.49mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $98 · $1,176/yr

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $489,000 Coming Soon 11 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $489,000 Coming Soon 10 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $489,000 Coming Soon 9 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $489,000 Coming Soon 8 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $489,000 Coming Soon 6 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $489,000 Coming Soon 2 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   remarks 619-char remark
8. 2026-06-08
   listed $489,000 Coming Soon 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,001 · $167/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,716 · $310/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,715/yr (+$143/mo · 85.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone D · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 5/10 Major 7 unhealthy d/yr today · 8 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $44,607
• − Mortgage interest: −$27,392
• − Property taxes: −$2,001
• − Insurance: −$2,445
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,569
• − Management: −$3,569
• − HOA: −$1,176
• − Depreciation: −$14,225
• Taxable loss: −$9,769
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,345
• After-tax cash flow: $1,190/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Murrieta Valley Unified
• NCES district ID: 0600029
• Math proficiency: 51% ▲ 3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 64% ▲ 4.00%
• Median HH income: $78,615
• Composite: 53.42/100
• National rank: #3152
• State rank: #255 of 1400 in CA

Livability — Murrieta

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #279
• US rank: #9348

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute F Cost of living F Crime A- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety D+ User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Murrieta, CA
• County: Riverside County · 2,287,001 people
• City population: 145,160
• Metro: Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA
• Population (ZIP): 64,781
• Household income: $114,266
• Rent vs Own: 29.2% rent · 70.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 1424.0

Population outlook (Riverside County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 2,664,475 people
• By 2030: 2,802,692 · +5.2%
• By 2040: 3,050,904 · +14.5%
• By 2050: 3,256,783 · +22.2%
• By 2075: 3,655,058 · +37.2%
• By 2100: 3,766,594 · +41.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.62)
• Race & ethnicity: White 52% Hispanic / Latino 32% Two or more races 16% Asian 6% Black 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 26%
• Common ancestry: Italian 4% Lithuanian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 14% · Canada, Vietnam, South Korea
• Languages at home: 77% English-only · Spanish 15% Tagalog/Filipino 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Riverside

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.0% · R 49.3% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.6pp toward R · 2008: 2.3pp · 2024: -1.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+1.3 2020: D+8.0 2016: D+4.3 2012: R+0.4 2008: D+2.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -124.36%
• Current HPI: 323.9003
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.73%
• Metro: Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+1937.5% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-08 Coming Soon $489,000 CRMLS
• 2016-06-30 Sold (Public Records) $271,000 Public Records
• 2016-06-30 Sold (MLS) $270,000 TheMLS
• 2016-05-25 Pending — TheMLS
• 2016-05-06 Listed $270,900 TheMLS
• 2004-02-27 Sold (Public Records) $255,000 Public Records
• 1999-05-28 Sold (Public Records) $34,000 Public Records
• 1998-05-29 Sold (Public Records) $24,000 Public Records

Property tax history

-2.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,001 · +1.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.