1190 N Hickory St

South Lakes, AK 99645

$279,000C-

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,080 sqft · Built 2000 · Other · Active · 3 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,885/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,463
• Tax + insurance: −$500
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$606
• Net cashflow: $316/mo
• Annual: $3,792/yr
• Cap rate: 7.65%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.85%
• DSCR: 1.22
• 1% rule: 1.03%
• Cash to close: $78,120

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath other listed at $279k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $316 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $279k).
• Only 3 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Matanuska-Susitna Borough School District (town): math 42% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #5 of 21 in AK (top 24%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Cottonwood Creek Elementary (math 52% / reading 47%, grade D, #55 of 156 statewide, top 37%, 468 students, 44% FRL); Colony Middle School (math 39% / reading 54%, grade D+, #9 of 36 statewide, top 23%, 735 students, 31% FRL); Colony High School (math 29% / reading 38%, grade F, #32 of 61 statewide, top 52%, 1,117 students, 29% FRL) — zoned schools at 35% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 377 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 91 units permitted in Matanuska-Susitna Borough in 2024 (25 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Matanuska-Susitna County population projected at +50% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 4 sale attempts since 4y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($100k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.