1190 N Hickory St · South Lakes, AK 99645

$279,000

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,080 sqft · Other public records · 3 Days on market

Built 2000 1.03 ac lot ↓ 30% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +19.5/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +6.2/10.0
• 1% rule +5.3/10.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Embrace the tranquility of this charming & bright 4 bed home w/mountain views on 1 ACRE+! Main floor primary, with gorgeous ensuite. Three bedrooms & office downstairs w/remodeled bathroom. Large storage shed for everything Alaskan! For those stationed at JBER/commuting to Anchorage, you'll love the fast ~40-minute drive, saving precious time. RV parking, for outdoor adventures & no HOA!

Key facts

• Rv parking
• Bonus room
• Large shed

Tags

• BONUS ROOM
• LARGE SHED
• RV PARKING

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: No garage; No carport
• Utilities: Septic tank sewer system
• Home design: Residential property; Not attached to another unit; Built in 2000; Wood frame construction; Other foundation
• Construction: Shingle/asphalt roof
• Exterior features: Located in a fire service area; Located in a road service area; Paved road access

Interior

• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 3 total bathrooms (2 full, 1 half)
• Interior features: Pantry

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath other listed at $279k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $316 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $279k).

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Matanuska-Susitna Borough School District (town): math 42% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #5 of 21 in AK (top 24%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Cottonwood Creek Elementary (math 52% / reading 47%, grade D, #55 of 156 statewide, top 37%, 468 students, 44% FRL); Colony Middle School (math 39% / reading 54%, grade D+, #9 of 36 statewide, top 23%, 735 students, 31% FRL); Colony High School (math 29% / reading 38%, grade F, #32 of 61 statewide, top 52%, 1,117 students, 29% FRL) — zoned schools at 35% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 377 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 91 units permitted in Matanuska-Susitna Borough in 2024 (25 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($100k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Matanuska-Susitna County population projected at +50% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 3 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 4 sale attempts since 4y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $279,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
3. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
4. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.03% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.65%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.85%
• DSCR: 1.22
• GRM: 8.1

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -8.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.68×
• Total profit: $-25,020
• Equity at exit: $41,600

10-year hold

• IRR: 0.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.06×
• Total profit: $4,392
• Equity at exit: $24,123

Cash invested: $78,120 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 80 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Alaska: 80 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+8
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

30-day notice; security deposits capped; courts moderate-paced.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 99645

• Home prices YoY: -22.8%
• Active inventory: 377
• Price-to-rent: 8.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,885 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,463
• Tax from tax record: −$384 /mo · $4,603/yr
• Insurance: −$116
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$606
• Net cashflow: $316

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,485

Max offer price $279,000

Occupancy floor 84%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $474	-5% $395	+0% $316	+5% $237	+10% $158
Rent	-10% $88	-5% $202	+0% $316	+5% $430	+10% $544
Rate	-1.0pp $456	-0.5pp $387	base $316	+0.5pp $244	+1.0pp $170

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $69,750
• Closing costs: $8,370
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
335 N Roy Cir Palmer, AK	4.0	3.0	2419	$3,700	$1.53	14d	1	0.85mi

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $279,000 Active 3 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $279,000 Active 2 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   remarks 343-char remark
4. 2026-06-16
   listed $279,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AK · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $4,603 · $384/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,603 · $384/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $34,616
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,628
• − Property taxes: −$4,603
• − Insurance: −$1,395
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,769
• − Management: −$2,769
• − Depreciation: −$8,116
• Taxable loss: −$665
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$160
• After-tax cash flow: $3,951/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Matanuska-Susitna Borough School District
• NCES district ID: 0200510
• Math proficiency: 42% ▲ 1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▲ 5.00%
• Median HH income: $70,325
• Composite: 41.38/100
• National rank: #3484
• State rank: #5 of 21 in AK

Livability — South Lakes

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: South Lakes, AK
• County: Matanuska Susitna Borough · 100,174 people
• Metro: Anchorage, AK
• Population (ZIP): 32,103
• Household income: $100,455
• Rent vs Own: 19.8% rent · 80.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 539.0

Population outlook (Matanuska-Susitna County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 126,730 people
• By 2030: 139,641 · +10.2%
• By 2040: 165,122 · +30.3%
• By 2050: 189,697 · +49.7%
• By 2075: 249,959 · +97.2%
• By 2100: 288,077 · +127.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (75%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 75% Two or more races 11% Hispanic / Latino 6% Native American 6% Black 1% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 4% Slovak 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Matanuska-Susitna

• 2016 margin: R (+15.2) · D 37.7% · R 52.9% · Other 9.4%
• All cycles: 2016: R+15.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -62.20%
• Current HPI: 210.5448
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Anchorage, AK
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

-30.1% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-15 Listed $279,000 AKMLS
• 2024-06-27 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2024-06-27 Sold (MLS) — AKMLS
• 2024-05-25 Pending — AKMLS
• 2024-05-11 Price Changed $420,000 AKMLS
• 2024-05-04 Listed $425,000 AKMLS
• 2022-06-15 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2022-04-28 Pending — AKMLS
• 2022-04-28 Price Changed $410,000 AKMLS
• 2022-04-24 Relisted — AKMLS
• 2022-04-08 Listed $399,000 AKMLS

Property tax history

+4.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,603 · +3.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.