86 Nursery Ln

Madison, CT 06443

$935,000F

4 bd · 3.5 ba · 3,100 sqft · Built 2001 · SingleFamily · Under Contract · 7 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $4,990/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$4,903
• Tax + insurance: −$1,432
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,048
• Net cashflow: $-2,393/mo
• Annual: $-28,718/yr
• Cap rate: 3.22%
• Cash-on-cash: -10.97%
• DSCR: 0.51
• 1% rule: 0.53%
• Cash to close: $261,800

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/3.5-bath single-family listed at $935k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-2k ($-29k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $512k (45.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $499k (46.6% below list).
• Only 7 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $499k (46.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $6k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $28k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads: area grade F — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Madison School District (suburban): math 69% / reading 75% proficiency, ranked #10 of 153 in CT (top 6%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 3% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Daniel Hand High School (math 69% / reading 86%, grade A-, #8 of 194 statewide, top 4%, 828 students, 5% FRL) — zoned schools at 5% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 107 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 1,059 units permitted in South Central Connecticut Planning Region in 2024 (779 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 67% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.