86 Nursery Ln · Madison Center, CT 06443

$935,000

4 bd · 3.5 ba · 3,100 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 7 Days on market

Built 2001 1.85 ac lot Est $936k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.6/15.0
• Schools +6.6/10.0
• Cash flow +4.5/30.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +0.3/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

ABSOLUTELY STUNNING is the only way to describe this immaculate 4+ bedroom Colonial, perfectly situated in one of Madison's most desirable and convenient neighborhoods. From the moment you step inside, the incredible sunlit, open-concept floor plan captivates you. Designed for effortless entertaining & everyday living. The spacious living room that features a cozy gas fireplace flows seamlessly into an expansive family room. A glass French door opens to a private deck, complete with a built-in gas line for your barbecue-perfect for hosting. Culinary enthusiasts will fall in love with the fabulous kitchen, boasting an abundance of cabinetry, a center island, a separate dining area, &am

Key facts

• Private deck
• Built-in gas line
• Butler's pantry

Tags

• OPEN-CONCEPT FLOOR PLAN
• PRIVATE DECK
• BUILT-IN GAS LINE
• CENTER ISLAND
• BUTLER'S PANTRY
• MAIN-FLOOR LAUNDRY ROOM

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage; 3-car garage
• Utilities: Private well water; Septic system; Electric power (standard); Propane for hot water
• Home design: Single-family home
• Construction: Built with wood frame construction; Vinyl siding; Concrete foundation; Asphalt shingle roof
• Exterior features: Porch; Deck; Underground sprinkler; Lightly wooded lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Gas range; Range hood; Dishwasher
• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 3 full baths; 1 half bath
• Heating & cooling: Hot air heating (oil-fired) with fuel tank in basement; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: 8 total rooms; Full finished, heated, cooled basement with interior access and walk-out (liveable space); Walk-up attic
• Laundry & utility: Main level laundry; Washer; Dryer; Tankless hot water (propane)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.5-bath single-family listed at $935k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-2k ($-29k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $512k (45.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $499k (46.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $499k (46.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 79/100 on livability (#33 in CT, #2,238 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, health & safety A+, employment A; Watch: amenities C-, housing C-, cost of living F.
• Madison School District (suburban): math 69% / reading 75% proficiency, ranked #10 of 153 in CT (top 6%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 3% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Daniel Hand High School (math 69% / reading 86%, grade A-, #8 of 194 statewide, top 4%, 828 students, 5% FRL) — zoned schools at 5% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 107 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 1,059 units permitted in South Central Connecticut Planning Region in 2024 (779 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $6k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $28k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• Only 7 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 67% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $499,030 (46.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.53% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.22%
• Cash-on-cash: -10.97%
• DSCR: 0.51
• GRM: 15.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $936,200
• Comps found: 3

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1308 Durham Rd	0.64mi	3/2.5 (-1)	3,500 (+13%)	11mo	$1,300,000	$371	30
21 Heatherwood Dr	0.73mi	4/2.5	2,712 (-12%)	20mo	$820,000	$302	24
40 Lenore Dr	0.62mi	5/4.0 (+1)	3,559 (+15%)	23mo	$915,000	$257	21

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -36.3%
• Equity multiple: -0.16×
• Total profit: $-303,934
• Equity at exit: $139,412

10-year hold

• IRR: -50.4%
• Equity multiple: -0.76×
• Total profit: $-460,936
• Equity at exit: $80,842

Cash invested: $261,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 27 Tenant-Leaning
• State Connecticut: 27 Tenant-Leaning · D+7
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Strong tenant statutes; rent commissions in some towns; courts slow especially in cities.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 06443

• Active inventory: 107
• Price-to-rent: 15.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $4,990 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$4,903
• Tax from tax record: −$1,043 /mo · $12,512/yr
• Insurance: −$390
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,048
• Net cashflow: $-2,393

Break-even live

Break-even rent $8,020

Max offer price $512,239

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-1,864	-5% $-2,129	+0% $-2,393	+5% $-2,658	+10% $-2,922
Rent	-10% $-2,787	-5% $-2,590	+0% $-2,393	+5% $-2,196	+10% $-1,999
Rate	-1.0pp $-1,922	-0.5pp $-2,155	base $-2,393	+0.5pp $-2,635	+1.0pp $-2,882

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $233,750
• Closing costs: $28,050
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1281 Durham Rd Madison, CT	4.0	2.0	2192	$3,750	$1.71	3d	1	0.54mi
2 Race Hill Rd Madison, CT	4.0	3.5	3748	$7,500	$2.00	19d	1	1.28mi

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-06-21
   status $935,000 Under Contract 7 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $935,000 Active 7 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $935,000 Active 6 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $935,000 Active 5 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $935,000 Active 4 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $935,000 Active 2 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   remarks 695-char remark
8. 2026-06-12
   listed $935,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CT · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $12,512 · $1,043/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $16,260 · $1,355/mo
• Expected delta: +$3,748/yr (+$312/mo · 30.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥93°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 67% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $59,884
• − Mortgage interest: −$52,375
• − Property taxes: −$12,512
• − Insurance: −$4,675
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$4,791
• − Management: −$4,791
• − Depreciation: −$27,200
• Taxable loss: −$46,459
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$11,150
• After-tax cash flow: $-17,568/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Madison School District
• NCES district ID: 0902280
• Math proficiency: 69% ▲ 1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 75% ▲ 2.00%
• Median HH income: $103,788
• Composite: 66.15/100
• National rank: #435
• State rank: #10 of 153 in CT

Livability — Madison Center

• Score: 79/100
• State rank: #33
• US rank: #2238

Category grades

Amenities C- Commute C Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A Housing C- Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 17,577

Population outlook (South Central Connecticut County) Hauer SSP2

• By 2040: 608,362

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (88%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 88% Two or more races 5% Asian 4% Hispanic / Latino 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 5% Lithuanian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Other Indo-European 2% Spanish 2% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · South Central Connecticut

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+20.1) · D 59.0% · R 38.9% · Other 2.1%
• All cycles: 2024: D+20.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -375.58%
• Current HPI: 242.8467
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.06%
• F500 in state: 38

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CT)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Machinery	4	$38B
▸Insurance	3	$71B
▸Financial Services	2	$25B
▸Transportation / Logistics	2	$18B
▸Healthcare	1	$247B
▸Telecommunications	1	$55B

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-12 Listed $935,000 Smart MLS
• 2026-06-11 Coming Soon $935,000 Smart MLS

Property tax history

+2.1%/yr

Latest (2023): $12,512 · +1.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.