111 Pin Oak Ln

Mystic Island, NJ 08087

$180,000B

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,057 sqft · Built 1986 · Townhouse · Active · 59 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,416/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$944
• Tax + insurance: −$264
• HOA: −$140
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$507
• Net cashflow: $560/mo
• Annual: $6,723/yr
• Cap rate: 10.03%
• Cash-on-cash: 13.34%
• DSCR: 1.59
• 1% rule: 1.34%
• Cash to close: $50,400

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath townhouse listed at $180k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $560 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $180k).
• It's been on market 59 days — a 3% lower offer ($175k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $175k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#455 in NJ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A; Watch: employment C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Pinelands Regional School District (rural): math 14% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #344 of 472 in NJ (top 73%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Frog Pond Elementary School (math 14% / reading 33%, grade F, #921 of 1,303 statewide, top 71%, 771 students, 48% FRL); Pinelands Regional Jr. High School (math 10% / reading 48%, grade F, #321 of 431 statewide, top 77%, 520 students, 42% FRL); Pinelands Regional High School (math 21% / reading 41%, grade F, #277 of 399 statewide, top 70%, 1,069 students, 40% FRL).
• Market conditions: 296 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 0d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 4,434 units permitted in Ocean County in 2024 (868 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Ocean County population projected to shrink 8% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• 5 sale attempts since 25y ago; this cycle's ask is 99900% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.
• Current owner paid $85k; list at $180k implies a 112% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $50k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 10.0% vs local median 2.6% in Mystic Island — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($92k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 59 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.