111 Pin Oak Ln · Mystic Island, NJ 08087

$180,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,057 sqft · Townhouse public records · 59 Days on market

Built 1986 871 sqft lot Est $233k · 23% under $140/mo HOA · 6% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +28.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +9.9/10.0
• 1% rule +8.4/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Beautiful townhouse - featuring in-ground pool, tennis, convenient to shopping

Key facts

• Close to restaurants
• New hwh
• Close to bus stop

Tags

• NEW HWH
• HVAC IN VERY GOOD CONDITION
• CLOSE TO RESTAURANTS
• CLOSE TO SHOPPING
• CLOSE TO BUS STOP
• CLOSE TO COMMUNITY CENTER

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: HOA present with a $140 monthly association fee

Exterior

• Parking: No garage
• Utilities: Public sewer
• Home design: Located in the Tavistock subdivision, Little Egg Harbor area
• Construction: Living area approximately 1,057
• Exterior features: Shingle roof

Interior

• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom and 1 half bathroom (1.5 total)
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: No fireplaces

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath townhouse listed at $180k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $560 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $180k).
• Recommended offer: $175k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.0% vs local median 2.6% in Mystic Island — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#455 in NJ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A; Watch: employment C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Pinelands Regional School District (rural): math 14% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #344 of 472 in NJ (top 73%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Frog Pond Elementary School (math 14% / reading 33%, grade F, #921 of 1,303 statewide, top 71%, 771 students, 48% FRL); Pinelands Regional Jr. High School (math 10% / reading 48%, grade F, #321 of 431 statewide, top 77%, 520 students, 42% FRL); Pinelands Regional High School (math 21% / reading 41%, grade F, #277 of 399 statewide, top 70%, 1,069 students, 40% FRL).
• Market conditions: 296 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 0d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 4,434 units permitted in Ocean County in 2024 (868 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($92k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Ocean County population projected to shrink 8% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $50k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 59 days — a 3% lower offer ($175k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 25y ago; this cycle's ask is 99900% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.
• Current owner paid $85k; list at $180k implies a 112% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $174,600 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 59 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.34% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.03%
• Cash-on-cash: 13.34%
• DSCR: 1.59
• GRM: 6.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $232,540
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
39 Pin Oak Ln	0.08mi	2/1.5	1,057 (0%)	16mo	$200,000	$189	81
16 Tavistock #16	0.12mi	3/1.5 (+1)	1,090 (+3%)	3mo	$240,000	$220	80
16 Tavistock Dr	0.12mi	3/1.5 (+1)	1,090 (+3%)	3mo	$240,000	$220	80
111 Tavistock Dr	0.05mi	2/1.5	936 (-11%)	3mo	$220,000	$235	74
67 Tavistock Dr	0.05mi	2/1.0	936 (-11%)	16mo	$200,000	$214	61
47 Pin Oak Ln	0.08mi	2/1.0	904 (-14%)	12mo	$220,000	$243	58
163 Westchester Dr	0.64mi	2/1.5	1,158 (+10%)	2mo	$285,000	$246	51
142 Westchester Dr	0.61mi	2/1.5	1,158 (+10%)	7mo	$216,250	$187	48
175 Westchester Dr	0.58mi	2/1.5	1,158 (+10%)	14mo	$250,000	$216	43
32 Whitemarsh Ct	0.59mi	2/1.0	978 (-8%)	17mo	$174,900	$179	42
139 Westchester Dr	0.64mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,160 (+10%)	10mo	$279,000	$241	41
121 Westchester Dr	0.64mi	3/1.5 (+1)	1,160 (+10%)	19mo	$185,000	$159	31

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 3.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.13×
• Total profit: $6,618
• Equity at exit: $26,839

10-year hold

• IRR: 13.0%
• Equity multiple: 2.03×
• Total profit: $52,121
• Equity at exit: $15,563

Cash invested: $50,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 21 Tenant-Leaning
• State New Jersey: 21 Tenant-Leaning · D+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Anti-eviction Act requires just-cause statewide; rent control in 100+ municipalities; one of the most tenant-friendly states.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 08087

• Active inventory: 296
• Price-to-rent: 6.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,416 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$944
• Tax from tax record: −$189 /mo · $2,272/yr
• Insurance: −$75
• HOA: −$140
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$507
• Net cashflow: $560

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,707

Max offer price $180,000

Occupancy floor 72%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $662	-5% $611	+0% $560	+5% $509	+10% $458
Rent	-10% $369	-5% $465	+0% $560	+5% $656	+10% $751
Rate	-1.0pp $651	-0.5pp $606	base $560	+0.5pp $514	+1.0pp $466

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $45,000
• Closing costs: $5,400
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
32 Pin Oak Ln Little Egg Harbor Twp, NJ	3.0	1.5	1000	$2,550	$2.55	0d	1	0.04mi
211 Harbourtown Blvd Little Egg Harbor Twp, NJ	2.0	1.5	1320	$2,300	$1.74	0d	1	0.29mi
12 Timberline Dr Little Egg Harbor Twp, NJ	2.0	1.5	943	$2,250	$2.39	25d	1	0.62mi
128 E Dory Dr Little Egg Harbor Twp, NJ	3.0	2.0	1144	$2,800	$2.45	0d	1	0.99mi
28 S Los Angeles Dr Little Egg Harbor Twp, NJ	3.0	1.0	1244	$2,300	$1.85	0d	1	1.36mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $140 · $1,680/yr
• Likely covers: pool

Listing history 32 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $180,000 Active 59 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $180,000 Active 56 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $180,000 Active 55 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $180,000 Active 54 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $180,000 Active 53 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $180,000 Active 51 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $180,000 Active 47 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $180,000 Active 46 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $180,000 Active 45 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $180,000 Active 42 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $180,000 Active 41 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $180,000 Active 40 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $180,000 Active 39 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $180,000 Active 38 DOM
15. 2026-04-24
    price $180,000 428-char remark
16. 2026-04-23
    listed $180 Active 428-char remark
17. 2021-04-28
    soldstatus $85,000
18. 2004-10-28
    soldstatus $117,000
19. 2004-09-24
    soldstatus $117,000 79-char remark

    Show marketing remark (79 chars)

    Beautiful townhouse - featuring in-ground pool, tennis, convenient to shopping

20. 2004-06-03
    listed $119,900 79-char remark

    Show marketing remark (79 chars)

    Beautiful townhouse - featuring in-ground pool, tennis, convenient to shopping

21. 2003-03-19
    soldstatus $82,000
22. 2003-03-17
    soldstatus $82,000

    Show marketing remark (68 chars)

    Popular Model, new carpeting, newly painted. Home in good condition.

23. 2002-11-20
    listed $95,000

    Show marketing remark (68 chars)

    Popular Model, new carpeting, newly painted. Home in good condition.

24. 2002-03-20
    soldstatus $65,000
25. 2002-03-19
    soldstatus $286,500
26. 2002-03-18
    soldstatus $65,000
27. 2002-03-18
    soldstatus $65,000
28. 2002-01-22
    listed $68,000
29. 2001-11-09
    listed $68,000
30. 1987-09-21
    soldstatus $85,000
31. 1986-03-05
    soldstatus $55,490
32. 1985-11-22
    soldstatus $49,478

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NJ · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,272 · $189/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,377 · $281/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,105/yr (+$92/mo · 48.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥99°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,991
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,083
• − Property taxes: −$2,272
• − Insurance: −$900
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,319
• − Management: −$2,319
• − HOA: −$1,680
• − Depreciation: −$5,236
• Taxable income: $4,181
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,003
• After-tax cash flow: $5,720/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pinelands Regional School District
• NCES district ID: 3413000
• Math proficiency: 14% ▼ -20.00%
• Reading proficiency: 46% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $59,396
• Composite: 26.97/100
• National rank: #7075
• State rank: #344 of 472 in NJ

Livability — Mystic Island

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #455
• US rank: #17110

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living D- Crime B- Employment C- Housing A Health & safety D- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Ocean County · 439,426 people
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• Population (ZIP): 25,342
• Household income: $91,677
• Rent vs Own: 16.6% rent · 83.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 519.0

Population outlook (Ocean County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 586,991 people
• By 2030: 581,403 · -1.0%
• By 2040: 564,913 · -3.8%
• By 2050: 538,149 · -8.3%
• By 2075: 468,845 · -20.1%
• By 2100: 350,297 · -40.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (86%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 86% Hispanic / Latino 6% Two or more races 6% Black 3% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 6% Slovak 2% Portuguese 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 2% Other Indo-European 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Ocean

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+36.0) · D 31.4% · R 67.4% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.6pp toward R · 2008: -18.4pp · 2024: -36.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+36.0 2020: R+28.7 2016: R+34.0 2012: R+17.7 2008: R+18.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -243.86%
• Current HPI: 340.4378
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NJ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Consumer Goods	3	$31B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$153B
▸Technology	2	$21B
▸Insurance	2	$20B
▸Healthcare	2	$19B
▸Financial Services	1	$70B

Price history

+263.8% since first listed

18 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-24 Price Changed $180,000 MOMLS
• 2026-04-23 Listed $180 MOMLS
• 2021-04-28 Sold (Public Records) $85,000 Public Records
• 2004-10-28 Sold (Public Records) $117,000 Public Records
• 2004-09-24 Sold (MLS) $117,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2004-06-03 Listed $119,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2003-03-19 Sold (Public Records) $82,000 Public Records
• 2003-03-17 Sold (MLS) $82,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2002-11-20 Listed $95,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2002-03-20 Sold (Public Records) $65,000 Public Records
• 2002-03-19 Sold (Public Records) $286,500 Public Records
• 2002-03-18 Sold (MLS) $65,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2002-03-18 Sold (MLS) $65,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2002-01-22 Listed $68,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2001-11-09 Listed $68,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 1987-09-21 Sold (Public Records) $85,000 Public Records
• 1986-03-05 Sold (Public Records) $55,490 Public Records
• 1985-11-22 Sold (Public Records) $49,478 Public Records

Property tax history

-0.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,272 · +10.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.