2909 W Henley Dr

Columbia, MO 65202

$177,000C

4 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,352 sqft · Built 1958 · SingleFamily · Pending · 24 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,603/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$928
• Tax + insurance: −$187
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$337
• Net cashflow: $151/mo
• Annual: $1,812/yr
• Cap rate: 7.32%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.66%
• DSCR: 1.16
• 1% rule: 0.91%
• Cash to close: $49,560

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $177k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $151 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $160k (9.4% below list).
• It's been on market 24 days — a 2% lower offer ($174k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $160k (9.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 83/100 on livability (#9 in MO, #862 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, cost of living A+; Watch: crime D+.
• Columbia 93 (urban): math 30% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #194 of 324 in MO (top 60%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Blue Ridge Elem. (math 9% / reading 17%, grade F, #1,005 of 1,115 statewide, top 90%, 419 students, 68% FRL); Oakland Middle School (math 17% / reading 25%, grade F, #342 of 391 statewide, top 88%, 544 students, 59% FRL); Muriel W. Battle High School (math 7% / reading 47%, grade F, #420 of 521 statewide, top 82%, 1,581 students, 48% FRL) — zoned schools average 58% FRL vs 35% district-wide (23 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 20% at this address vs 36% district-wide (-16 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Columbia 93 average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Watch-outs: built in 1958 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+6.0%/yr); 351 active listings in the ZIP; 12 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 1,303 units permitted in Boone County in 2024 (549 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Boone County population projected at +36% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 6 sale attempts since 4y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Cap rate 7.3% vs local median 2.9% in Columbia — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• Built in 1958 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.