2909 W Henley Dr · Columbia, MO 65202

$177,000

4 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,352 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 24 Days on market

Built 1958 0.45 ac lot Est $224k · 21% under ↓ 2% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +18.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +5.6/10.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• 1% rule +4.1/10.0
• Rent growth +4.0/5.0
• Schools +3.1/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

AN IMMACULATE FOUR BEDROOM HOME FOR A NEW OWNER TO MOVE IN. GREAT STARTER HOME HAS HAD SOME RECENT UPDATES AND REPAIRS. SEE SELLER'S DISCLOSURE ATTACHMENT FOR A MORE DETAILED LIST OF REPAIRS AND IMPROVEMENTS. THERE IS HARDWOOD FLOORING UNDER THE CARPET.

Key facts

• 0.45 acre lot
• 3 garage spots
• Built 1958

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $177k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $151 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $160k (9.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $160k (9.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.3% vs local median 2.9% in Columbia — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 83/100 on livability (#9 in MO, #862 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, cost of living A+; Watch: crime D+.
• Columbia 93 (urban): math 30% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #194 of 324 in MO (top 60%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Blue Ridge Elem. (math 9% / reading 17%, grade F, #1,005 of 1,115 statewide, top 90%, 419 students, 68% FRL); Oakland Middle School (math 17% / reading 25%, grade F, #342 of 391 statewide, top 88%, 544 students, 59% FRL); Muriel W. Battle High School (math 7% / reading 47%, grade F, #420 of 521 statewide, top 82%, 1,581 students, 48% FRL) — zoned schools average 58% FRL vs 35% district-wide (23 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 20% at this address vs 36% district-wide (-16 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Columbia 93 average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+6.0%/yr); 351 active listings in the ZIP; 12 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 1,303 units permitted in Boone County in 2024 (549 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Boone County population projected at +36% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 24 days — a 2% lower offer ($174k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts since 4y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1958 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $160,326 (9.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1958 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.91% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.32%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.66%
• DSCR: 1.16
• GRM: 9.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $224,432
• Comps found: 7

Show comp detail 7 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3001 Brown Station Rd	0.47mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,251 (-8%)	3mo	$210,000	$168	56
3405 Brown Station Rd	0.51mi	4/1.5	1,451 (+7%)	18mo	$225,000	$155	47
2520 Laoris St	0.71mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,387 (+3%)	12mo	$230,000	$166	45
2310 Nelwood Dr	0.70mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,404 (+4%)	14mo	$187,900	$134	40
2804 Mexico Gravel Rd	0.55mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,253 (-7%)	24mo	$195,000	$156	37
2607 Oakfield Dr	0.65mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,483 (+10%)	22mo	$249,900	$169	26
2805 Blue Ridge Rd	0.66mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,154 (-15%)	16mo	$199,000	$172	26

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 5.96% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -7.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.71×
• Total profit: $-14,191
• Equity at exit: $26,391

10-year hold

• IRR: 5.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.43×
• Total profit: $21,293
• Equity at exit: $15,304

Cash invested: $49,560 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 65202

• Rents YoY: 6.0%
• Active inventory: 351
• Price-to-rent: 9.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,603 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$928
• Tax from tax record: −$114 /mo · $1,364/yr
• Insurance: −$74
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$337
• Net cashflow: $151

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,412

Max offer price $177,000

Occupancy floor 86%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $251	-5% $201	+0% $151	+5% $101	+10% $51
Rent	-10% $24	-5% $88	+0% $151	+5% $214	+10% $278
Rate	-1.0pp $240	-0.5pp $196	base $151	+0.5pp $105	+1.0pp $58

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $44,250
• Closing costs: $5,310
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 12 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2800 Mexico Gravel Rd Unit A Columbia, MO	3.0	1.5	1313	$1,375	$1.05	22d	1	0.58mi
2403 Calico Ln Columbia, MO	3.0	1.0	1050	$1,300	$1.24	22d	1	0.69mi
2401 Calico Ln Unit 2401 Columbia, MO	3.0	1.0	1050	$1,300	$1.24	44d	1	0.69mi
3101 Jenne Hill Dr Columbia, MO	3.0–4.0	2.5	1384	$1,625	$1.17	14d	9	0.86mi
3101 Jenne Hill Dr Unit 3209 Columbia, MO	3.0	2.5	1268	$1,495	$1.18	22d	1	0.86mi
4502 Waterloo Dr Unit A Columbia, MO	3.0	1.0	1050	$1,350	$1.29	45d	1	0.98mi
4612 Dehaven Dr Columbia, MO	4.0	3.0	1348	$1,575	$1.17	22d	1	1.08mi
4614 Dehaven Dr Columbia, MO	4.0	3.0	1348	$1,575	$1.17	44d	1	1.09mi
4618 Dehaven Dr Columbia, MO	4.0	3.0	1348	$1,575	$1.17	44d	1	1.10mi
2119 Ballenger Ln Columbia, MO	4.0	3.0	1402	$1,575	$1.12	44d	1	1.26mi
2117 Ballenger Ln Columbia, MO	4.0	3.0	1402	$1,575	$1.12	44d	1	1.26mi
4916 Brown Station Rd Unit 1B Columbia, MO	3.0	2.0	1064	$938	$0.88	22d	1	1.43mi

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-04-14
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-03
   status Active
3. 2026-03-30
   status Pending
4. 2026-03-13
   listed $177,000 Active
5. 2023-01-09
   soldstatus
6. 2023-01-06
   soldstatus Closed 255-char remark

   Show marketing remark (255 chars)

   AN IMMACULATE FOUR BEDROOM HOME FOR A NEW OWNER TO MOVE IN. GREAT STARTER HOME HAS HAD SOME RECENT UPDATES AND REPAIRS. SEE SELLER'S DISCLOSURE ATTACHMENT FOR A MORE DETAILED LIST OF REPAIRS AND IMPROVEMENTS. THERE IS HARDWOOD FLOORING UNDER THE CARPET.

7. 2022-11-30
   status Pending 255-char remark

   Show marketing remark (255 chars)

   AN IMMACULATE FOUR BEDROOM HOME FOR A NEW OWNER TO MOVE IN. GREAT STARTER HOME HAS HAD SOME RECENT UPDATES AND REPAIRS. SEE SELLER'S DISCLOSURE ATTACHMENT FOR A MORE DETAILED LIST OF REPAIRS AND IMPROVEMENTS. THERE IS HARDWOOD FLOORING UNDER THE CARPET.

8. 2022-11-16
   price $169,900 255-char remark

   Show marketing remark (255 chars)

   AN IMMACULATE FOUR BEDROOM HOME FOR A NEW OWNER TO MOVE IN. GREAT STARTER HOME HAS HAD SOME RECENT UPDATES AND REPAIRS. SEE SELLER'S DISCLOSURE ATTACHMENT FOR A MORE DETAILED LIST OF REPAIRS AND IMPROVEMENTS. THERE IS HARDWOOD FLOORING UNDER THE CARPET.

9. 2022-09-12
   listed $180,900 Active 255-char remark

   Show marketing remark (255 chars)

   AN IMMACULATE FOUR BEDROOM HOME FOR A NEW OWNER TO MOVE IN. GREAT STARTER HOME HAS HAD SOME RECENT UPDATES AND REPAIRS. SEE SELLER'S DISCLOSURE ATTACHMENT FOR A MORE DETAILED LIST OF REPAIRS AND IMPROVEMENTS. THERE IS HARDWOOD FLOORING UNDER THE CARPET.

10. 2022-08-04
    status Active
11. 2022-07-21
    status Pending
12. 2022-07-20
    status Active
13. 2022-07-12
    status Pending
14. 2022-06-09
    price $170,000
15. 2022-05-07
    listed $180,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,364 · $114/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,717 · $143/mo
• Expected delta: +$353/yr (+$29/mo · 25.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,239
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,915
• − Property taxes: −$1,364
• − Insurance: −$885
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,539
• − Management: −$1,539
• − Depreciation: −$5,149
• Taxable loss: −$1,152
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$276
• After-tax cash flow: $2,088/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Columbia 93
• NCES district ID: 2901000
• Math proficiency: 30% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $46,547
• Composite: 31.21/100
• National rank: #6036
• State rank: #194 of 324 in MO

Livability — Columbia

• Score: 83/100
• State rank: #9
• US rank: #862

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Columbia, MO
• County: Boone County · 158,877 people
• City population: 158,877
• Metro: Columbia, MO
• Population (ZIP): 47,327
• Household income: $72,289
• Rent vs Own: 36.8% rent · 63.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 1326.0

Population outlook (Boone County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 202,891 people
• By 2030: 217,799 · +7.3%
• By 2040: 246,789 · +21.6%
• By 2050: 276,116 · +36.1%
• By 2075: 348,426 · +71.7%
• By 2100: 400,856 · +97.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (68%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 68% Black 16% Two or more races 8% Hispanic / Latino 6% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Italian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 3% Other Asian/Pacific 1% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Boone

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+9.8) · D 53.9% · R 44.1% · Other 2.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -2.2pp toward R · 2008: 12.0pp · 2024: 9.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+9.8 2020: D+12.5 2016: D+5.9 2012: D+3.1 2008: D+12.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -171.32%
• Current HPI: 205.5154
• Rent YoY: ▲ 5.96%
• Metro: Columbia, MO
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

-1.7% since first listed

15 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-14 Pending — CBORMLS
• 2026-04-03 Relisted — CBORMLS
• 2026-03-30 Pending — CBORMLS
• 2026-03-13 Listed $177,000 CBORMLS
• 2023-01-09 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2023-01-06 Sold (MLS) — CBORMLS
• 2022-11-30 Pending — CBORMLS
• 2022-11-16 Price Changed $169,900 CBORMLS
• 2022-09-12 Listed $180,900 CBORMLS
• 2022-08-04 Relisted — CBORMLS
• 2022-07-21 Pending — CBORMLS
• 2022-07-20 Relisted — CBORMLS
• 2022-07-12 Pending — CBORMLS
• 2022-06-09 Price Changed $170,000 CBORMLS
• 2022-05-07 Listed $180,000 CBORMLS

Property tax history

+3.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,364 · +11.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.