2454 SW Little Rd

Lake City, FL 32024

$254,500D+

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,175 sqft · Built 1989 · SingleFamily · Active · 79 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,820/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,335
• Tax + insurance: −$410
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$382
• Net cashflow: $-306/mo
• Annual: $-3,677/yr
• Cap rate: 4.85%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.16%
• DSCR: 0.77
• 1% rule: 0.72%
• Cash to close: $71,260

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $254k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-306 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $200k (21.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $182k (28.5% below list).
• It's been on market 79 days — a 6% lower offer ($239k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $182k (28.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $27k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $25k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#304 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities C-, commute F, employment F.
• Columbia (town): math 53% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #25 of 73 in FL (top 34%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Columbia City Elementary School (math 62% / reading 63%, grade B, #601 of 2,144 statewide, top 28%, 615 students, 62% FRL) — zoned schools at 62% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 206 active listings in the ZIP; 178 units permitted in Columbia County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Columbia County population projected to shrink 7% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• 3 sale attempts since 4y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $40k (14%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$44k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 4.8% vs local median 3.8% in Lake City — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 79 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 28% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.