2454 SW Little Rd · Lake City, FL 32024

$254,500

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,175 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 79 Days on market

Built 1989 0.50 ac lot Est $465k · 45% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +7.6/30.0
• Schools +4.5/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.2/10.0
• DSCR +1.7/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Come see this home! Nice home just recently updated in beautiful Southwood Estates Subdivision. This home has a nice family room with wood burning fireplace, a huge great room that would be great for entertaining friends and an extra large in-house laundry room. Split floor plan is another nice feature for family or guests. Enjoy a large beautifully shaded backyard for children or pets.

Key facts

• 0.5 acre lot
• Built 1989
• Listed 78 days

Property features AI

Exterior

• Utilities: Private water; Private sewer; Electricity available; Other utilities
• Home design: Single family residence; One story; North-facing
• Construction: Brick construction; Shingle roof; Slab foundation; Built area per public records: 2,568 total; living area 2,175
• Exterior features: Asphalt road access; Approximately 0.5 acre lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Range
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Ceramic tile; Laminate; Tile; Other flooring
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Electric heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Open floor plan; Living room/dining room combo; Other interior features
• Laundry & utility: Dedicated laundry room

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $254k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-306 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $200k (21.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $182k (28.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $182k (28.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.8% vs local median 3.8% in Lake City — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#304 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities C-, commute F, employment F.
• Columbia (town): math 53% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #25 of 73 in FL (top 34%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Columbia City Elementary School (math 62% / reading 63%, grade B, #601 of 2,144 statewide, top 28%, 615 students, 62% FRL) — zoned schools at 62% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 206 active listings in the ZIP; 178 units permitted in Columbia County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $27k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $25k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Columbia County population projected to shrink 7% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$44k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 79 days — a 6% lower offer ($239k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 4y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $40k (14%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $182,019 (28.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 79 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 28% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.72% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.85%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.16%
• DSCR: 0.77
• GRM: 11.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $465,450
• Comps found: 6

Show comp detail 6 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
183 SW Holly Gln	0.51mi	3/2.5	2,165 (-0%)	7mo	$515,000	$238	68
1816 SW Little Rd	0.47mi	3/2.0	2,074 (-5%)	15mo	$540,000	$260	58
649 SW Walter Ave	0.34mi	3/2.0	2,375 (+9%)	14mo	$392,000	$165	57
134 SW Emorywood Gln	0.52mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,174 (-0%)	22mo	$450,000	$207	52
588 SW Walter Ave	0.29mi	4/3.0 (+1)	1,850 (-15%)	7mo	$240,000	$130	46
1580 SW Little Rd	0.60mi	3/2.0	1,916 (-12%)	23mo	$410,000	$214	33

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 20.6%
• Equity multiple: 2.67×
• Total profit: $119,111
• Equity at exit: $229,274

10-year hold

• IRR: 18.8%
• Equity multiple: 6.14×
• Total profit: $366,145
• Equity at exit: $494,438

Cash invested: $71,260 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32024

• Home prices YoY: 7.6%
• Active inventory: 206
• Price-to-rent: 11.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,820 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,335
• Tax from tax record: −$304 /mo · $3,644/yr
• Insurance: −$106
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$382
• Net cashflow: $-306

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,208

Max offer price $200,371

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-162	-5% $-234	+0% $-306	+5% $-378	+10% $-450
Rent	-10% $-450	-5% $-378	+0% $-306	+5% $-235	+10% $-163
Rate	-1.0pp $-178	-0.5pp $-242	base $-306	+0.5pp $-372	+1.0pp $-439

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $63,625
• Closing costs: $7,635
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 34 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $254,500 Active 79 DOM
2. 2026-06-21
   days on market $254,500 Active 78 DOM
3. 2026-06-19
   days on market $254,500 Active 76 DOM
4. 2026-06-18
   days on market $254,500 Active 75 DOM
5. 2026-06-17
   days on market $254,500 Active 74 DOM
6. 2026-06-16
   days on market $254,500 Active 73 DOM
7. 2026-06-15
   days on market $254,500 Active 72 DOM
8. 2026-06-14
   days on market $254,500 Active 70 DOM
9. 2026-06-12
   days on market $254,500 Active 69 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $254,500 Active 66 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $254,500 Active 65 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $254,500 Active 64 DOM
13. 2026-06-05
    days on market $254,500 Active 61 DOM
14. 2026-06-03
    days on market $254,500 Active 60 DOM
15. 2026-06-02
    days on market $254,500 Active 59 DOM
16. 2026-06-01
    days on market $254,500 Active 58 DOM
17. 2026-05-31
    days on market $254,500 Active 57 DOM
18. 2026-05-30
    days on market $254,500 Active 56 DOM
19. 2026-05-09
    price $274,900
20. 2026-04-04
    listed $295,000 Active
21. 2024-08-15
    price $289,900
22. 2024-06-12
    price $295,000
23. 2024-03-07
    price $309,900
24. 2024-01-13
    price $314,900
25. 2023-10-30
    price $319,900
26. 2023-09-29
    price $324,900
27. 2023-09-09
    listed $329,900 Active
28. 2023-07-05
    soldstatus $265,000
29. 2023-05-29
    historical Active Under Contract 389-char remark

    Show marketing remark (389 chars)

    Come see this home! Nice home just recently updated in beautiful Southwood Estates Subdivision. This home has a nice family room with wood burning fireplace, a huge great room that would be great for entertaining friends and an extra large in-house laundry room. Split floor plan is another nice feature for family or guests. Enjoy a large beautifully shaded backyard for children or pets.

30. 2023-05-28
    soldstatus $265,000 Closed 389-char remark

    Show marketing remark (389 chars)

    Come see this home! Nice home just recently updated in beautiful Southwood Estates Subdivision. This home has a nice family room with wood burning fireplace, a huge great room that would be great for entertaining friends and an extra large in-house laundry room. Split floor plan is another nice feature for family or guests. Enjoy a large beautifully shaded backyard for children or pets.

31. 2023-03-31
    price $289,900 389-char remark

    Show marketing remark (389 chars)

    Come see this home! Nice home just recently updated in beautiful Southwood Estates Subdivision. This home has a nice family room with wood burning fireplace, a huge great room that would be great for entertaining friends and an extra large in-house laundry room. Split floor plan is another nice feature for family or guests. Enjoy a large beautifully shaded backyard for children or pets.

32. 2022-11-14
    price $299,900 389-char remark

    Show marketing remark (389 chars)

    Come see this home! Nice home just recently updated in beautiful Southwood Estates Subdivision. This home has a nice family room with wood burning fireplace, a huge great room that would be great for entertaining friends and an extra large in-house laundry room. Split floor plan is another nice feature for family or guests. Enjoy a large beautifully shaded backyard for children or pets.

33. 2022-09-15
    listed $309,000 Active 389-char remark

    Show marketing remark (389 chars)

    Come see this home! Nice home just recently updated in beautiful Southwood Estates Subdivision. This home has a nice family room with wood burning fireplace, a huge great room that would be great for entertaining friends and an extra large in-house laundry room. Split floor plan is another nice feature for family or guests. Enjoy a large beautifully shaded backyard for children or pets.

34. 2005-05-03
    soldstatus $152,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,644 · $304/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,644 · $304/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 8/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 5/10 Major 7 unhealthy d/yr today · 9 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,842
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,256
• − Property taxes: −$3,644
• − Insurance: −$1,272
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,747
• − Management: −$1,747
• − Depreciation: −$7,404
• Taxable loss: −$8,229
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,975
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,702/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Columbia
• NCES district ID: 1200360
• Math proficiency: 53% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 54% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $40,053
• Composite: 44.74/100
• National rank: #2750
• State rank: #25 of 73 in FL

Livability — Lake City

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #304
• US rank: #5154

Category grades

Amenities C- Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 40,507
• Population (ZIP): 20,644

Population outlook (Columbia County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 68,129 people
• By 2030: 67,501 · -0.9%
• By 2040: 65,465 · -3.9%
• By 2050: 63,058 · -7.4%
• By 2075: 56,291 · -17.4%
• By 2100: 45,243 · -33.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (78%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 78% Hispanic / Latino 10% Two or more races 7% Black 6% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Portuguese 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 8% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Columbia

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+50.2) · D 24.6% · R 74.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.4pp toward R · 2008: -33.8pp · 2024: -50.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+50.2 2020: R+45.2 2016: R+44.5 2012: R+36.7 2008: R+33.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 19.05%
• Current HPI: 269.4659
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+80.9% since first listed

16 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-09 Price Changed $274,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-04 Listed $295,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-08-15 Price Changed $289,900 NFMLS
• 2024-06-12 Price Changed $295,000 NFMLS
• 2024-03-07 Price Changed $309,900 NFMLS
• 2024-01-13 Price Changed $314,900 NFMLS
• 2023-10-30 Price Changed $319,900 NFMLS
• 2023-09-29 Price Changed $324,900 NFMLS
• 2023-09-09 Listed $329,900 NFMLS
• 2023-07-05 Sold (Public Records) $265,000 Public Records
• 2023-05-29 Contingent — NFMLS
• 2023-05-28 Sold (MLS) $265,000 NFMLS
• 2023-03-31 Price Changed $289,900 NFMLS
• 2022-11-14 Price Changed $299,900 NFMLS
• 2022-09-15 Listed $309,000 NFMLS
• 2005-05-03 Sold (Public Records) $152,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+4.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,644 · +2.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.