655 Sefton Park Dr

Zebulon, NC 27597

$271,075F

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,622 sqft · Built 2025 · Land · Pending · 119 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,881/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,422
• Tax + insurance: −$452
• HOA: −$42
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$395
• Net cashflow: $-429/mo
• Annual: $-5,153/yr
• Cap rate: 4.39%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.79%
• DSCR: 0.70
• 1% rule: 0.69%
• Cash to close: $75,901

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath land listed at $271k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-429 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $209k (22.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $188k (30.6% below list).
• It's been on market 119 days — a 9% lower offer ($247k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $188k (30.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#264 in NC) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, health & safety A+, housing A-; Watch: crime D+, schools D-, amenities F.
• Wake County Schools (suburban): math 52% / reading 60% proficiency, ranked #35 of 178 in NC (top 20%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.5%/yr); 668 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 15,249 units permitted in Wake County in 2024 (5,568 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Wake County population projected at +51% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 58% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 119 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 31% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?