655 Sefton Park Dr · Zebulon, NC 27597

$271,075

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,622 sqft · Land · 119 Days on market

Built 2025 7,666 sqft lot $42/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +6.7/30.0
• Schools +4.9/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.9/10.0
• DSCR +1.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Final Townhome Phase STARTING CONSTRUCTION SOON! Community Amenities include Pool, Clubhouse, Tennis Court, 2 Pickleball Courts, Bocci Ball, Horseshoe, Grilling Deck, 2 Separate Fire Pits, 3 Dog Parks, Playground, Greenway Trail and Sidewalks on both sides of ALL streets. Come see why Sidney Creek is Zebulon's most sought-after community!

Key facts

• Clubhouse
• Tennis court
• Pickleball courts

Tags

• POOL
• CLUBHOUSE
• TENNIS COURT
• PICKLEBALL COURTS
• BOCCI BALL
• GRILLING DECK

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath land listed at $271k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-429 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $209k (22.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $188k (30.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $188k (30.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.4% vs local median 3.6% in Zebulon — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#264 in NC) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, health & safety A+, housing A-; Watch: crime D+, schools D-, amenities F.
• Wake County Schools (suburban): math 52% / reading 60% proficiency, ranked #35 of 178 in NC (top 20%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.5%/yr); 668 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 15,249 units permitted in Wake County in 2024 (5,568 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Wake County population projected at +51% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 119 days — a 9% lower offer ($247k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 58% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $188,096 (30.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 119 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 31% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.69% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.39%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.79%
• DSCR: 0.70
• GRM: 12.0

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.54% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -29.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.03×
• Total profit: $-73,943
• Equity at exit: $40,418

10-year hold

• IRR: -38.4%
• Equity multiple: -0.45×
• Total profit: $-110,235
• Equity at exit: $23,438

Cash invested: $75,901 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State North Carolina: 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; preempted; landlord-favorable but court speed varies.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 27597

• Home prices YoY: -30.1%
• Rents YoY: 1.5%
• Active inventory: 668
• Price-to-rent: 12.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,881 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,422
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$339 /mo · $4,066/yr
• Insurance: −$113
• HOA: −$42
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$395
• Net cashflow: $-429

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,424

Max offer price $208,943

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-242	-5% $-336	+0% $-429	+5% $-523	+10% $-617
Rent	-10% $-578	-5% $-504	+0% $-429	+5% $-355	+10% $-281
Rate	-1.0pp $-293	-0.5pp $-360	base $-429	+0.5pp $-500	+1.0pp $-571

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $67,769
• Closing costs: $8,132
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
857 Channel Drop Loop Zebulon, NC	3.0	2.5	1700	$1,795	$1.06	17d	1	0.43mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $42 · $504/yr
• Likely covers: pool

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-01-30
   status Pending
2. 2025-10-03
   listed $271,075 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 58% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,572
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,184
• − Property taxes: −$4,066
• − Insurance: −$1,355
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,806
• − Management: −$1,806
• − HOA: −$504
• − Depreciation: −$7,886
• Taxable loss: −$10,036
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,409
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,744/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Wake County Schools
• NCES district ID: 3704720
• Math proficiency: 52% ▲ 2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 60% ▲ 4.00%
• Median HH income: $67,509
• Composite: 49.41/100
• National rank: #2010
• State rank: #35 of 178 in NC

Livability — Zebulon

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #264
• US rank: #11505

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment F Housing A- Health & safety A+ User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Zebulon, NC
• County: Wake County · 1,216,256 people
• City population: 30,184
• Metro: Raleigh-Cary, NC
• Population (ZIP): 30,184
• Household income: $84,625
• Rent vs Own: 19.9% rent · 80.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 592.0

Population outlook (Wake County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,293,152 people
• By 2030: 1,428,223 · +10.4%
• By 2040: 1,698,188 · +31.3%
• By 2050: 1,955,807 · +51.2%
• By 2075: 2,520,273 · +94.9%
• By 2100: 2,893,335 · +123.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.61)
• Race & ethnicity: White 55% Black 24% Hispanic / Latino 15% Two or more races 10%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 9% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Slovak 3% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada
• Languages at home: 87% English-only · Spanish 12%

Political lean MEDSL · Wake

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+25.5) · D 61.9% · R 36.4% · Other 1.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: +11.1pp toward D · 2008: 14.4pp · 2024: 25.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+25.5 2020: D+26.4 2016: D+20.5 2012: D+10.2 2008: D+14.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -94.86%
• Current HPI: 220.7242
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.54%
• Metro: Raleigh-Cary, NC
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 26

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NC)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	2	$213B
▸Retail	2	$95B
▸Industrial Conglomerate	1	$38B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$35B
▸Utilities	1	$30B
▸Industrial Machinery	1	$19B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-01-30 Pending — TMLS
• 2025-10-03 Listed $271,075 TMLS