1307 Shepherd Ave

Sanford, FL 32771

$219,900D+

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,080 sqft · Built 1965 · SingleFamily · Active · 115 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,731/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,153
• Tax + insurance: −$320
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$363
• Net cashflow: $-106/mo
• Annual: $-1,272/yr
• Cap rate: 5.71%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.07%
• DSCR: 0.91
• 1% rule: 0.79%
• Cash to close: $61,572

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $220k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-106 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $201k (8.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $173k (21.3% below list).
• It's been on market 115 days — a 9% lower offer ($200k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $173k (21.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#316 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment C-, crime F, amenities F.
• Seminole (suburban): math 57% / reading 61% proficiency, ranked #13 of 73 in FL (top 18%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Idyllwilde Elementary School (math 32% / reading 41%, grade F, #1,656 of 2,144 statewide, top 78%, 772 students, 80% FRL); Seminole High School (math 35% / reading 51%, grade F, #255 of 667 statewide, top 39%, 4,036 students, 53% FRL) — zoned schools average 66% FRL vs 38% district-wide (28 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 40% at this address vs 59% district-wide (-19 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Seminole average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 561 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 18d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,979 units permitted in Seminole County in 2024 (1,191 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Seminole County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 3 sale attempts since 4y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.7% vs local median 3.6% in Sanford — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 115 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 21% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1965 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?