1307 Shepherd Ave · Sanford, FL 32771

$219,900

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,080 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 115 Days on market

Built 1965 5,500 sqft lot Est $267k · 18% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +10.7/30.0
• Schools +5.1/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• DSCR +3.1/10.0
• 1% rule +2.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Come and see YOUR Beautiful Home in the historic Goldsboro Sanford Fl. Calling all investors! This property is a golden opportunity with immediate income potential. Currently rented at $1900, this investment promises instant cash flow. With a new roof/AC and fully renovated, this listing is a prime asset for your investment portfolio. Act fast to capitalize on this profitable opportunity. Schedule a viewing today and secure your future in real estate investing!

Key facts

• Private yard
• 5,500 sq ft lot
• Built 1965

Tags

• PRIVATE YARD
• HISTORIC DOWNTOWN SANFORD
• CENTRAL FLORIDA LOCATION

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Property type: Residential — Single Family Residence; Zoning: GC2
• HOA & community: No association

Exterior

• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electricity connected; Water connected; Cable available; Phone available; Underground utilities
• Home design: Single-family residence; One story; Facing north
• Construction: Block construction; Shingle roof; Slab foundation; Built on lot of approximately 0.13 acres
• Exterior features: Exterior lighting; Paved road access

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Disposal; Microwave; Range; Refrigerator; Stone countertops
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Flooring: Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Split-bedroom floorplan; Stone countertops; Window treatments
• Laundry & utility: Laundry room; Washer; Dryer; Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $220k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-106 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $201k (8.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $173k (21.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $173k (21.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.7% vs local median 3.6% in Sanford — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#316 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment C-, crime F, amenities F.
• Seminole (suburban): math 57% / reading 61% proficiency, ranked #13 of 73 in FL (top 18%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Idyllwilde Elementary School (math 32% / reading 41%, grade F, #1,656 of 2,144 statewide, top 78%, 772 students, 80% FRL); Seminole High School (math 35% / reading 51%, grade F, #255 of 667 statewide, top 39%, 4,036 students, 53% FRL) — zoned schools average 66% FRL vs 38% district-wide (28 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 40% at this address vs 59% district-wide (-19 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Seminole average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 561 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 18d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,979 units permitted in Seminole County in 2024 (1,191 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Seminole County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 115 days — a 9% lower offer ($200k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 4y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $173,088 (21.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 115 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 21% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1965 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.79% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.71%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.07%
• DSCR: 0.91
• GRM: 10.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $266,760
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2005 Hartwell Ave	0.46mi	3/1.5 (+1)	1,057 (-2%)	0mo	$294,900	$279	68
1502 W 16th St	0.35mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,160 (+7%)	0mo	$265,000	$228	62
101 Country Club Dr	0.48mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,028 (-5%)	1mo	$292,000	$284	60
115 Hays Dr	0.56mi	3/1.5 (+1)	1,038 (-4%)	3mo	$296,000	$285	58
1712 W 15th St	0.47mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,014 (-6%)	1mo	$181,900	$179	58
1201 W 20th St	0.44mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,152 (+7%)	2mo	$259,000	$225	57
1306 W 16th St	0.24mi	3/1.5 (+1)	923 (-14%)	4mo	$204,900	$222	54
1416 Southwest Rd	0.63mi	2/2.0	1,168 (+8%)	1mo	$125,000	$107	53
2012 Cordova Dr	0.69mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,113 (+3%)	3mo	$315,000	$283	51
1112 W 7th St	0.44mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,205 (+12%)	0mo	$230,000	$191	51
904 W 22nd St	0.56mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,184 (+10%)	3mo	$292,800	$247	46
314 W 6th St	0.70mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,212 (+12%)	2mo	$345,000	$285	36

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.38% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -22.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.24×
• Total profit: $-46,832
• Equity at exit: $32,788

10-year hold

• IRR: -25.0%
• Equity multiple: -0.08×
• Total profit: $-66,795
• Equity at exit: $19,013

Cash invested: $61,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32771

• Rents YoY: 0.4%
• Active inventory: 561
• Price-to-rent: 10.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,731 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,153
• Tax from tax record: −$229 /mo · $2,743/yr
• Insurance: −$92
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$363
• Net cashflow: $-106

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,865

Max offer price $201,179

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $54,975
• Closing costs: $6,597
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1320 S Oleander Ave Sanford, FL	3.0	2.0	1200	$1,850	$1.54	23d	1	0.31mi
1515 S Oleander Ave Sanford, FL	2.0	2.0	1100	$1,500	$1.36	23d	1	0.32mi
1001 W 8th St Unit 1 Sanford, FL	3.0	1.0	1075	$2,250	$2.09	21d	1	0.35mi
2008 William Clark Ave Sanford, FL	3.0	2.0	1328	$2,199	$1.66	2d	1	0.48mi
1908 W 16th St Sanford, FL	3.0	2.0	1100	$1,500	$1.36	20d	1	0.55mi
1935 W 14th St Sanford, FL	3.0	1.5	1112	$1,900	$1.71	2d	1	0.56mi
107 Garrison Dr Sanford, FL	3.0	2.0	1439	$1,800	$1.25	17d	1	0.60mi
106 Garrison Dr Sanford, FL	3.0	2.0	1080	$1,895	$1.75	5d	1	0.61mi
1013 W 3rd St Unit B Sanford, FL	2.0	1.0	800	$1,195	$1.49	14d	1	0.67mi
2405 Chase Ave Sanford, FL	3.0	2.0	1200	$2,095	$1.75	14d	1	0.70mi
2406 S Lake Ave Sanford, FL	3.0	2.0	1111	$2,000	$1.80	14d	1	0.72mi
612 S Park Ave Unit 4 Sanford, FL	2.0	1.0	720	$1,295	$1.80	21d	1	0.80mi
2450 Hartwell Ave Sanford, FL	2.0	2.0	784	$1,400	$1.79	23d	1	0.80mi
2450 Hartwell Ave Sanford, FL	2.0	2.0	784	$1,400	$1.79	17d	1	0.80mi
2450 Hartwell Ave Sanford, FL	2.0	2.0	784	$1,400	$1.79	12d	1	0.80mi
2420 S Lake Ave Sanford, FL	3.0	1.0	1100	$1,545	$1.40	14d	1	0.81mi
2420 S Lake Ave Unit B Sanford, FL	3.0	1.0	1100	$1,545	$1.40	17d	1	0.81mi
1201 S Palmetto Ave Sanford, FL	2.0	1.0	1200	$2,500	$2.08	23d	1	0.82mi
308 E 13th St Sanford, FL	2.0	2.0	1129	$1,750	$1.55	5d	1	0.82mi
308 E 13th St Sanford, FL	2.0	2.0	1129	$1,850	$1.64	23d	1	0.82mi
101 E 21st St Sanford, FL	3.0	2.0	896	$2,500	$2.79	23d	1	0.85mi
2441 Marshall Ave Sanford, FL	3.0	2.0	1462	$2,235	$1.53	5d	1	0.87mi
2437 Chase Ave Unit A Sanford, FL	2.0	1.0	875	$1,199	$1.37	23d	1	0.89mi
832 W 25th St Sanford, FL	2.0	2.0	1134	$1,475	$1.30	2d	1	0.92mi
832 W 25th St Sanford, FL	2.0	2.0	1134	$1,500	$1.32	20d	1	0.92mi
828 W 25th St Sanford, FL	2.0	1.5	1134	$1,350	$1.19	16d	1	0.93mi
828 W 25th St Sanford, FL	2.0	1.5	1134	$1,350	$1.19	23d	1	0.93mi
816 W 25th St Sanford, FL	2.0	1.5	1134	$1,299	$1.15	2d	1	0.93mi
1505 W 25th St Sanford, FL	3.0	2.0	1150	$1,753	$1.52	12d	1	0.96mi
912 Pine Ave Sanford, FL	2.0	1.0	1122	$1,595	$1.42	23d	1	1.01mi
2511 Ridgewood Ave Sanford, FL	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,395	$1.40	23d	1	1.04mi
401 W Seminole Blvd Sanford, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	818	$1,824	$2.23	1d	12	1.09mi
153 Cape Honeysuckle Pl Sanford, FL	3.0	2.5	1380	$2,395	$1.74	23d	1	1.10mi
2539 Ridgewood Ave Sanford, FL	2.0	2.0	816	$1,095	$1.34	20d	1	1.13mi
201 Sanford Ave Sanford, FL	1.0	1.0	779	$1,795	$2.30	2d	1	1.13mi
1704 Ridgewood Ln Sanford, FL	2.0	1.0	837	$1,350	$1.61	23d	1	1.21mi
810 E 20th St Sanford, FL	2.0	1.0	1204	$1,750	$1.45	5d	1	1.22mi
2530 Georgia Ave Unit B Sanford, FL	2.0	2.0	1400	$1,650	$1.18	23d	1	1.22mi
2541 Myrtle Ave Unit C Sanford, FL	2.0	2.0	1000	$1,465	$1.47	2d	1	1.24mi
2735 Bungalow Blvd Sanford, FL	2.0	1.0	700	$1,025	$1.46	5d	1	1.24mi

Listing history 25 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $219,900 Active 115 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $219,900 Active 114 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $219,900 Active 113 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $219,900 Active 112 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $219,900 Active 110 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $219,900 Active 106 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $219,900 Active 105 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $219,900 Active 104 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $219,900 Active 101 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $219,900 Active 100 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $219,900 Active 99 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $219,900 Active 98 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $219,900 Active 97 DOM
14. 2026-04-15
    price $225,000
15. 2026-02-23
    listed $230,000 Active
16. 2024-06-07
    soldstatus $230,000
17. 2024-05-28
    soldstatus $230,000 Closed 465-char remark

    Show marketing remark (465 chars)

    Come and see YOUR Beautiful Home in the historic Goldsboro Sanford Fl. Calling all investors! This property is a golden opportunity with immediate income potential. Currently rented at $1900, this investment promises instant cash flow. With a new roof/AC and fully renovated, this listing is a prime asset for your investment portfolio. Act fast to capitalize on this profitable opportunity. Schedule a viewing today and secure your future in real estate investing!

18. 2024-04-30
    status Pending 465-char remark

    Show marketing remark (465 chars)

    Come and see YOUR Beautiful Home in the historic Goldsboro Sanford Fl. Calling all investors! This property is a golden opportunity with immediate income potential. Currently rented at $1900, this investment promises instant cash flow. With a new roof/AC and fully renovated, this listing is a prime asset for your investment portfolio. Act fast to capitalize on this profitable opportunity. Schedule a viewing today and secure your future in real estate investing!

19. 2024-03-28
    listed $235,000 Active 465-char remark

    Show marketing remark (465 chars)

    Come and see YOUR Beautiful Home in the historic Goldsboro Sanford Fl. Calling all investors! This property is a golden opportunity with immediate income potential. Currently rented at $1900, this investment promises instant cash flow. With a new roof/AC and fully renovated, this listing is a prime asset for your investment portfolio. Act fast to capitalize on this profitable opportunity. Schedule a viewing today and secure your future in real estate investing!

20. 2023-02-21
    historical
21. 2022-11-04
    price $249,000
22. 2022-10-22
    price $258,000
23. 2022-10-06
    listed $259,000 Active
24. 2022-03-24
    soldstatus $135,000
25. 1982-10-01
    soldstatus $24,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,743 · $229/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,743 · $229/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,771
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,318
• − Property taxes: −$2,743
• − Insurance: −$1,100
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,662
• − Management: −$1,662
• − Depreciation: −$6,397
• Taxable loss: −$5,110
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,226
• After-tax cash flow: $-45/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Seminole
• NCES district ID: 1201710
• Math proficiency: 57% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 61% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $58,478
• Composite: 51.05/100
• National rank: #1769
• State rank: #13 of 73 in FL

Livability — Sanford

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #316
• US rank: #5359

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Sanford, FL
• County: Seminole County · 436,154 people
• City population: 96,638
• Metro: Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, FL
• Population (ZIP): 62,606
• Household income: $77,868
• Rent vs Own: 37.7% rent · 62.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 2645.0

Population outlook (Seminole County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 515,494 people
• By 2030: 545,713 · +5.9%
• By 2040: 598,068 · +16.0%
• By 2050: 640,663 · +24.3%
• By 2075: 724,461 · +40.5%
• By 2100: 755,530 · +46.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.70)
• Race & ethnicity: White 43% Black 24% Hispanic / Latino 23% Two or more races 13% Asian 7%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 7% Cuban 2% Dominican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Slovak 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 18% · Canada, Jamaica, China
• Languages at home: 76% English-only · Spanish 15% Other Indo-European 3% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Seminole

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.6% · R 51.1% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -0.8pp no change · 2008: -2.8pp · 2024: -3.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.5 2020: D+2.8 2016: R+1.6 2012: R+6.5 2008: R+2.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -281.27%
• Current HPI: 299.2738
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.38%
• Metro: Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+837.5% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-15 Price Changed $225,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-23 Listed $230,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-06-07 Sold (Public Records) $230,000 Public Records
• 2024-05-28 Sold (MLS) $230,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-04-30 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-03-28 Listed $235,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-02-21 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-11-04 Price Changed $249,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-10-22 Price Changed $258,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-10-06 Listed $259,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-03-24 Sold (Public Records) $135,000 Public Records
• 1982-10-01 Sold (Public Records) $24,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+11.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,743 · +10.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.