8495 Canyon Dr

White Mountain Lake, AZ 85901

$249,000F

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,056 sqft · Built 1997 · Manufactured · Active · 24 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,967/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,306
• Tax + insurance: −$156
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$413
• Net cashflow: $92/mo
• Annual: $1,108/yr
• Cap rate: 6.74%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.59%
• DSCR: 1.07
• 1% rule: 0.79%
• Cash to close: $69,720

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $249k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $92 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $197k (21.0% below list).
• It's been on market 24 days — a 2% lower offer ($245k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $197k (21.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#141 in AZ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Show Low Unified District (4393) (rural): math 32% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #89 of 249 in AZ (top 36%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Nikolaus Homestead Elementary School (math 40% / reading 44%, grade F, #371 of 1,109 statewide, top 34%, 389 students, 42% FRL); Show Low Junior High School (math 29% / reading 34%, grade F, #78 of 218 statewide, top 36%, 587 students, 45% FRL); Show Low High School (math 22% / reading 37%, grade F, #120 of 381 statewide, top 34%, 877 students, 31% FRL).
• Market conditions: 897 active listings in the ZIP; 485 units permitted in Navajo County in 2024 (11 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Navajo County population projected at -16% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• Current owner paid $91k; list at $249k implies a 175% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.7% vs local median 4.4% in White Mountain Lake — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.