8495 Canyon Dr · White Mountain Lake, AZ 85901

$249,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,056 sqft · Manufactured public records · 24 Days on market

Built 1997 10,018 sqft lot Est $212k · 17% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.3/30.0
• DSCR +4.7/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Schools +3.0/10.0
• 1% rule +2.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

This beautifully updated 3-bedroom, 2-bath home sits on a generously sized lot and offers the perfect blend of comfort, space, and style. Inside, you'll find vaulted ceilings that create an open and airy feel throughout the home, along with a large living area ideal for relaxing or entertaining. The kitchen features brand-new appliances, abundant cabinet space, and a functional layout perfect for everyday living. Fresh interior and exterior paint, along with new flooring throughout, give the home a clean, modern look and make it truly move-in ready. With its spacious design and impressive updates, this property shows beautifully and is ready to welcome its next owner.

Key facts

• Large living area
• Functional layout
• Vaulted ceilings

Tags

• VAULTED CEILINGS
• LARGE LIVING AREA
• BRAND-NEW APPLIANCES
• ABUNDANT CABINET SPACE
• FUNCTIONAL LAYOUT
• FRESH INTERIOR PAINT

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Approx. 0.23 acres; Subdivision: Wh Mt Lakes
• HOA & community: No HOA

Exterior

• Utilities: Septic tank; Water available; Sewer available; Power available; APS electrical service and other utilities available
• Home design: Manufactured mobile home; Double wide
• Construction: Shingle roof
• Exterior features: Deck; Partly fenced yard; Road access: county and privately maintained road

Interior

• Kitchen: Built-in dishwasher; Gas range; Refrigerator; Eat-in kitchen
• Flooring: Vinyl
• Bathrooms: Tub/shower in bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Electric heating
• Interior features: Vinyl flooring; Tub/shower

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $249k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $92 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $197k (21.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $197k (21.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.7% vs local median 4.4% in White Mountain Lake — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#141 in AZ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Show Low Unified District (4393) (rural): math 32% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #89 of 249 in AZ (top 36%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Nikolaus Homestead Elementary School (math 40% / reading 44%, grade F, #371 of 1,109 statewide, top 34%, 389 students, 42% FRL); Show Low Junior High School (math 29% / reading 34%, grade F, #78 of 218 statewide, top 36%, 587 students, 45% FRL); Show Low High School (math 22% / reading 37%, grade F, #120 of 381 statewide, top 34%, 877 students, 31% FRL).
• Market conditions: 897 active listings in the ZIP; 485 units permitted in Navajo County in 2024 (11 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Navajo County population projected at -16% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 24 days — a 2% lower offer ($245k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $91k; list at $249k implies a 175% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $196,699 (21.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.79% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.74%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.59%
• DSCR: 1.07
• GRM: 10.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $212,256
• Comps found: 4

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
8496 Silver Creek Dr	0.10mi	3/1.5	981 (-7%)	20mo	$71,000	$72	65
8478 Rifle Dr	0.08mi	2/2.0 (-1)	900 (-15%)	11mo	$227,000	$252	58
8525 Canyon Dr	0.16mi	3/1.0	897 (-15%)	10mo	$180,000	$201	56
8408 Ortega Dr	0.45mi	3/1.0	1,200 (+14%)	18mo	$30,069	$25	38

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -13.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.50×
• Total profit: $-34,597
• Equity at exit: $37,127

10-year hold

• IRR: -5.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.67×
• Total profit: $-23,080
• Equity at exit: $21,529

Cash invested: $69,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85901

• Home prices YoY: -14.5%
• Active inventory: 897
• Price-to-rent: 10.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,967 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,306
• Tax from tax record: −$52 /mo · $625/yr
• Insurance: −$104
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$413
• Net cashflow: $92

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,850

Max offer price $249,000

Occupancy floor 90%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $233	-5% $163	+0% $92	+5% $22	+10% $-49
Rent	-10% $-63	-5% $15	+0% $92	+5% $170	+10% $248
Rate	-1.0pp $218	-0.5pp $156	base $92	+0.5pp $28	+1.0pp $-38

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $62,250
• Closing costs: $7,470
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $249,000 Active 24 DOM
2. 2026-06-21
   days on market $249,000 Active 23 DOM
3. 2026-06-19
   days on market $249,000 Active 21 DOM
4. 2026-06-18
   days on market $249,000 Active 20 DOM
5. 2026-06-17
   days on market $249,000 Active 19 DOM
6. 2026-06-16
   days on market $249,000 Active 18 DOM
7. 2026-06-15
   days on market $249,000 Active 17 DOM
8. 2026-06-14
   days on market $249,000 Active 15 DOM
9. 2026-06-12
   days on market $249,000 Active 14 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $249,000 Active 11 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $249,000 Active 10 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $249,000 Active 9 DOM
13. 2026-06-07
    days on market $249,000 Active 8 DOM
14. 2026-06-04
    days on market $249,000 Active 5 DOM
15. 2026-06-02
    days on market $249,000 Active 4 DOM
16. 2026-06-01
    days on market $249,000 Active 3 DOM
17. 2026-05-31
    days on market $249,000 Active 2 DOM
18. 2026-05-29
    listed $249,000 Active
19. 2023-04-10
    soldstatus $90,610
20. 2010-03-15
    soldstatus $100,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AZ · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $625 · $52/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,643 · $137/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,019/yr (+$85/mo · 163.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 6 d/yr ≥90°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,604
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,948
• − Property taxes: −$625
• − Insurance: −$1,245
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,888
• − Management: −$1,888
• − Depreciation: −$7,244
• Taxable loss: −$3,234
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$776
• After-tax cash flow: $1,884/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Show Low Unified District (4393)
• NCES district ID: 0407700
• Math proficiency: 32% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 39% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $41,240
• Composite: 29.9/100
• National rank: #6387
• State rank: #89 of 249 in AZ

Livability — White Mountain Lake

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #141
• US rank: #16914

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: White Mountain Lake, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 18,821

Population outlook (Navajo County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 105,760 people
• By 2030: 103,301 · -2.3%
• By 2040: 97,070 · -8.2%
• By 2050: 88,850 · -16.0%
• By 2075: 65,180 · -38.4%
• By 2100: 37,281 · -64.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (77%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 77% Hispanic / Latino 16% Two or more races 11% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 12%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Lithuanian 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 7% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Navajo

• 2024 margin: R (+17.2) · D 40.9% · R 58.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -5.5pp toward R · 2008: -11.7pp · 2024: -17.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+17.2 2020: R+8.2 2016: R+7.9 2012: R+8.4 2008: R+11.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -65.52%
• Current HPI: 386.3007
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

+149.0% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-29 Listed $249,000 WMMLS
• 2023-04-10 Sold (Public Records) $90,610 Public Records
• 2010-03-15 Sold (Public Records) $100,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $625 · +3.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.