2 bd · 2.0 ba ·
1,604 sqft ·
Built 1984
· SingleFamily
· Active
· 182 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$1,693/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$1,179
Tax + insurance
−$145
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$356
Net cashflow
$13/mo
Annual
$157/yr
Cap rate
6.36%
Cash-on-cash
0.25%
DSCR
1.01
1% rule
0.75%
Cash to close
$62,972
Investor read
This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $225k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $13 ($157/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $169k (24.7% below list).
It's been on market 182 days — a 12% lower offer ($198k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $169k (24.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 64/100 on livability (#666 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
Citrus (rural): math 49% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #44 of 73 in FL (top 60%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
Zoned schools: Forest Ridge Elementary School (math 55% / reading 59%, grade C+, #781 of 2,144 statewide, top 38%, 708 students, 67% FRL); Lecanto High School (math 46% / reading 53%, grade D, #179 of 667 statewide, top 29%, 1,630 students, 46% FRL) — zoned schools at 56% FRL track the district average.
Market conditions: 396 active listings in the ZIP; 28 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 2,443 units permitted in Citrus County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
Citrus County population projected to shrink 10% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $13k (5%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
Current owner paid $67k; list at $225k implies a 236% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
This rent runs 37% of the median local income ($55k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.
Questions for listing agent
It's been on market 182 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 25% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
CashFlowRE · CFR-Z0EGPZB7HARV86
· Data 2 days agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29