40 N Shore Blvd

Keansburg, NJ 07734

$215,000B

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,000 sqft · Built 1933 · SingleFamily · Pending · 10 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,961/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,127
• Tax + insurance: −$1,034
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$622
• Net cashflow: $178/mo
• Annual: $2,134/yr
• Cap rate: 9.67%
• Cash-on-cash: 12.05%
• DSCR: 1.54
• 1% rule: 1.38%
• Cash to close: $60,200

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $215k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $178 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $215k).
• Only 10 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#355 in NJ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, crime A-; Watch: cost of living D, amenities F, commute F.
• Keansburg School District (suburban): math 6% / reading 30% proficiency, ranked #443 of 472 in NJ (top 94%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Joseph C. Caruso School (math 7% / reading 26%, grade F, #1,094 of 1,303 statewide, top 85%, 667 students, 49% FRL); Joseph R. Bolger Middle School (math 6% / reading 35%, grade F, #391 of 431 statewide, top 91%, 335 students, 47% FRL); Keansburg High School (math 8% / reading 32%, grade F, #354 of 399 statewide, top 89%, 388 students, 40% FRL).
• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.9% of price; flood insurance adds $427/mo; built in 1933 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 108 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 12d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 2,840 units permitted in Monmouth County in 2024 (484 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Monmouth County population projected at -11% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 3 sale attempts since 8y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $135k; list at $215k implies a 59% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); major wind risk, 69% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 9.7% vs local median 3.2% in Keansburg — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 43% of the median local income ($82k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• Built in 1933 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.