40 N Shore Blvd · Keansburg, NJ 07734

$215,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,000 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 10 Days on market

Built 1933 3,920 sqft lot Est $347k · 38% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +27.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +9.4/10.0
• 1% rule +8.8/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.6/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Recently renovated with excellent rent roll .

Key facts

• 3,920 sq ft lot
• Built 1933
• Listed 10 days

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: No garage
• Utilities: Public sewer
• Home design: Fee simple ownership
• Exterior features: Shingle roof

Interior

• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: No central cooling listed
• Interior features: No included furnishings or items specified; Crawl space basement; No fireplaces

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $215k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $178 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $215k).
• Cap rate 9.7% vs local median 3.2% in Keansburg — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#355 in NJ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, crime A-; Watch: cost of living D, schools F, amenities F.
• Keansburg School District (suburban): math 6% / reading 30% proficiency, ranked #443 of 472 in NJ (top 94%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 108 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 12d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 2,840 units permitted in Monmouth County in 2024 (484 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 43% of the median local income ($82k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Monmouth County population projected at -11% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• Only 10 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 3 sale attempts since 8y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $135k; list at $215k implies a 59% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.9% of price; flood insurance adds $427/mo; built in 1933 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); major wind risk, 69% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $215,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1933 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.38% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.67%
• Cash-on-cash: 12.05%
• DSCR: 1.54
• GRM: 6.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $347,000
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
7 Woodside Ave	0.12mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,017 (+2%)	6mo	$412,000	$405	82
170 Park Ave	0.40mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,063 (+6%)	2mo	$350,000	$329	62
49 Lincoln Ct	0.40mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,038 (+4%)	6mo	$200,000	$193	62
21 Saint Marks Pl	0.64mi	3/1.0 (-1)	998 (-0%)	1mo	$361,620	$362	60
44 Oceanview Ave	0.37mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,016 (+2%)	16mo	$350,000	$344	60
131 Shore Blvd	0.23mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,100 (+10%)	7mo	$270,000	$245	58
7 Beechwood Ave	0.26mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,100 (+10%)	9mo	$363,600	$331	54
15 Walters St	0.56mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,090 (+9%)	5mo	$378,000	$347	50
78 Orchard St	0.45mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,148 (+15%)	0mo	$440,000	$383	49
50 Monmouth Ave	0.68mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,068 (+7%)	7mo	$351,000	$329	42
5 Ocean Ave	0.69mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,032 (+3%)	15mo	$450,000	$436	41
41 Harding Ave	0.54mi	3/1.0 (-1)	899 (-10%)	17mo	$325,000	$362	35

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -10.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.62×
• Total profit: $-23,052
• Equity at exit: $32,057

10-year hold

• IRR: -0.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.94×
• Total profit: $-3,619
• Equity at exit: $18,589

Cash invested: $60,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 21 Tenant-Leaning
• State New Jersey: 21 Tenant-Leaning · D+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Anti-eviction Act requires just-cause statewide; rent control in 100+ municipalities; one of the most tenant-friendly states.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 07734

• Active inventory: 108
• Price-to-rent: 6.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,961 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,127
• Tax from tax record: −$518 /mo · $6,213/yr
• Insurance: −$90
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$427 /mo · $5,118/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$622
• Net cashflow: $178

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,736

Max offer price $215,000

Occupancy floor 89%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $300	-5% $239	+0% $178	+5% $117	+10% $56
Rent	-10% $-56	-5% $61	+0% $178	+5% $295	+10% $412
Rate	-1.0pp $286	-0.5pp $233	base $178	+0.5pp $122	+1.0pp $65

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $53,750
• Closing costs: $6,450
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
72 Willis Ave Unit 2 Keansburg, NJ	3.0	1.0	950	$2,800	$2.95	18d	1	0.54mi
159 Port Monmouth Rd Unit 2 Keansburg, NJ	3.0	1.0	900	$2,800	$3.11	11d	1	0.56mi
31 Saint James Pl Unit A Keansburg, NJ	3.0	1.0	1400	$2,100	$1.50	5d	1	0.72mi

Listing history 12 events

1. 2026-06-02
   status $215,000 Pending 10 DOM
2. 2026-06-01
   days on market $215,000 Active 10 DOM
3. 2026-05-31
   days on market $215,000 Active 9 DOM
4. 2026-05-21
   listed $215,000 Active
5. 2025-01-17
   historical $1,900
6. 2024-12-28
   listed $1,900
7. 2019-03-27
   soldstatus $135,000
8. 2019-03-13
   soldstatus $135,000 Sold 45-char remark

   Show marketing remark (45 chars)

   Recently renovated with excellent rent roll .

9. 2019-01-16
   status Pending 45-char remark

   Show marketing remark (45 chars)

   Recently renovated with excellent rent roll .

10. 2018-04-20
    price $149,900 45-char remark

    Show marketing remark (45 chars)

    Recently renovated with excellent rent roll .

11. 2018-02-18
    listed $199,900 Active 45-char remark

    Show marketing remark (45 chars)

    Recently renovated with excellent rent roll .

12. 1985-11-01
    soldstatus $20,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NJ · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $6,213 · $518/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $6,213 · $518/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 8/10 Severe FEMA zone AE · 97% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥95°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 69% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $35,532
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,043
• − Property taxes: −$6,213
• − Insurance: −$6,194
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,843
• − Management: −$2,843
• − Depreciation: −$6,255
• Taxable loss: −$857
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$206
• After-tax cash flow: $2,340/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Keansburg School District
• NCES district ID: 3407860
• Math proficiency: 6% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 30% ▲ 2.00%
• Median HH income: $45,296
• Composite: 15.71/100
• National rank: #9281
• State rank: #443 of 472 in NJ

Livability — Keansburg

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #355
• US rank: #11775

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living D Crime A- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety B- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Keansburg, NJ
• County: Monmouth County · 505,557 people
• City population: 12,925
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• Population (ZIP): 12,925
• Household income: $82,029
• Rent vs Own: 42.3% rent · 57.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 485.0

Population outlook (Monmouth County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 620,308 people
• By 2030: 612,309 · -1.3%
• By 2040: 587,297 · -5.3%
• By 2050: 551,342 · -11.1%
• By 2075: 472,934 · -23.8%
• By 2100: 381,534 · -38.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (67%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 67% Hispanic / Latino 19% Black 8% Two or more races 8% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4% Puerto Rican 8% Cuban 1% Dominican 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Iranian 2% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 86% English-only · Spanish 10% Other Indo-European 2% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Monmouth

• 2024 margin: R (+11.4) · D 43.4% · R 54.8% · Other 1.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.7pp toward R · 2008: -3.7pp · 2024: -11.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+11.4 2020: R+2.8 2016: R+9.5 2012: R+5.5 2008: R+3.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -218.47%
• Current HPI: 379.3764
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NJ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Consumer Goods	3	$31B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$153B
▸Technology	2	$21B
▸Insurance	2	$20B
▸Healthcare	2	$19B
▸Financial Services	1	$70B

Price history

+975.0% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-21 Listed $215,000 MOMLS
• 2025-01-17 Rental Removed $1,900 MOMLS
• 2024-12-28 Listed for Rent $1,900 MOMLS
• 2019-03-27 Sold (Public Records) $135,000 Public Records
• 2019-03-13 Sold (MLS) $135,000 MOMLS
• 2019-01-16 Pending — MOMLS
• 2018-04-20 Price Changed $149,900 MOMLS
• 2018-02-18 Listed $199,900 MOMLS
• 1985-11-01 Sold (Public Records) $20,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $6,213 · +4.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.