303 Joya Loop

White Rock, NM 87547

$475,000D

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,720 sqft · Built 1969 · SingleFamily · Pending · 61 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $3,019/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,491
• Tax + insurance: −$457
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$634
• Net cashflow: $-563/mo
• Annual: $-6,758/yr
• Cap rate: 4.87%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.08%
• DSCR: 0.77
• 1% rule: 0.64%
• Cash to close: $133,000

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $475k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-563 ($-7k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $376k (20.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $302k (36.4% below list).
• It's been on market 61 days — a 6% lower offer ($446k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $302k (36.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $14k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#3 in NM, #1,794 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: cost of living D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Los Alamos Public Schools (town): math 61% / reading 78% proficiency, ranked #2 of 29 in NM (top 7%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 10% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: 34 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 14 units permitted in Los Alamos County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Los Alamos County population projected at +12% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 4 sale attempts since 26y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 61 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 36% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1969 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.