303 Joya Loop · White Rock, NM 87547

$475,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,720 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 61 Days on market

Built 1969 10,062 sqft lot $276/sqft · 20% below area Est $595k · 20% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +7.6/30.0
• Schools +6.4/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +1.7/10.0
• 1% rule +1.4/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Amazing curb appeal welcomes you to this beautifully maintained home, offering both comfort and versatility. Situated on a spacious lot in a quiet White Rock neighborhood, this property features ample parking, including an RV slab, and a fantastic backyard perfect for relaxing or entertaining. Step inside to an inviting open-concept kitchen and dining area that flows seamlessly into one of two living spaces—ideal for everyday living or hosting guests. The updated kitchen shines with granite countertops, stylish cabinetry, and modern appliances. The additional living area offers a cozy gas/electric fireplace and direct access to the backyard, creating the perfect space to unwind. Recent upgrades include new windows, doors, and updated outlets, providing peace of mind and added efficiency. Stay comfortable year-round with a swamp cooler for the warmer months. The home offers two well-sized guest bedrooms served by a full bathroom featuring a jetted tub. The spacious primary suite is a true retreat, complete with an oversized closet and a private en suite bath. With thoughtful updates, flexible living spaces, and a desirable location, this home is an exceptional opportunity you won’t want to miss!

Key facts

• Ample parking
• Rv slab
• Open-concept kitchen

Tags

• SPACIOUS LOT
• AMPLE PARKING
• RV SLAB
• FANTASTIC BACKYARD
• OPEN-CONCEPT KITCHEN
• UPDATED KITCHEN

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $475k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-563 ($-7k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $376k (20.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $302k (36.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $302k (36.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#3 in NM, #1,794 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: cost of living D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Los Alamos Public Schools (town): math 61% / reading 78% proficiency, ranked #2 of 29 in NM (top 7%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 10% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: 34 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 14 units permitted in Los Alamos County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $14k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Los Alamos County population projected at +12% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 61 days — a 6% lower offer ($446k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 26y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $301,876 (36.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 61 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 36% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1969 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.64% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.87%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.08%
• DSCR: 0.77
• GRM: 13.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $595,000
• List price: $475,000
• Delta: -20.17%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 1 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -25.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.15×
• Total profit: $-112,997
• Equity at exit: $70,824

10-year hold

• IRR: -21.0%
• Equity multiple: -0.09×
• Total profit: $-145,230
• Equity at exit: $41,069

Cash invested: $133,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State New Mexico: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice but with cure rights; relocation assistance in some cities.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 87547

• Active inventory: 34
• Price-to-rent: 13.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,019 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,491
• Tax from tax record: −$259 /mo · $3,109/yr
• Insurance: −$198
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$634
• Net cashflow: $-563

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,732

Max offer price $375,519

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $118,750
• Closing costs: $14,250
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
346 Kayenta Dr White Rock, NM	3.0	1.5	1626	$3,400	$2.09	43d	1	0.34mi
75 Park Ln Unit C White Rock, NM	2.0	2.0	1229	$2,100	$1.71	43d	1	0.62mi

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-09
   statusdays on market $475,000 Pending 61 DOM
2. 2026-06-08
   days on market $475,000 Active 60 DOM
3. 2026-06-07
   days on market $475,000 Active 59 DOM
4. 2026-06-07
   days on market $475,000 Active 58 DOM
5. 2026-06-04
   days on market $475,000 Active 55 DOM
6. 2026-06-02
   days on market $475,000 Active 54 DOM
7. 2026-06-01
   days on market $475,000 Active 53 DOM
8. 2026-05-31
   price $475,000 Active 52 DOM
9. 2026-05-31
   days on market $499,000 Active 52 DOM
10. 2026-05-31
    days on market $499,000 Active 51 DOM
11. 2026-05-16
    historical Active Under Contract 1225-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1225 chars)

    Amazing curb appeal welcomes you to this beautifully maintained home, offering both comfort and versatility. Situated on a spacious lot in a quiet White Rock neighborhood, this property features ample parking, including an RV slab, and a fantastic backyard perfect for relaxing or entertaining. Step inside to an inviting open-concept kitchen and dining area that flows seamlessly into one of two living spaces—ideal for everyday living or hosting guests. The updated kitchen shines with granite countertops, stylish cabinetry, and modern appliances. The additional living area offers a cozy gas/electric fireplace and direct access to the backyard, creating the perfect space to unwind. Recent upgrades include new windows, doors, and updated outlets, providing peace of mind and added efficiency. Stay comfortable year-round with a swamp cooler for the warmer months. The home offers two well-sized guest bedrooms served by a full bathroom featuring a jetted tub. The spacious primary suite is a true retreat, complete with an oversized closet and a private en suite bath. With thoughtful updates, flexible living spaces, and a desirable location, this home is an exceptional opportunity you won’t want to miss!

12. 2026-04-09
    listed $499,000 Active 1225-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1225 chars)

    Amazing curb appeal welcomes you to this beautifully maintained home, offering both comfort and versatility. Situated on a spacious lot in a quiet White Rock neighborhood, this property features ample parking, including an RV slab, and a fantastic backyard perfect for relaxing or entertaining. Step inside to an inviting open-concept kitchen and dining area that flows seamlessly into one of two living spaces—ideal for everyday living or hosting guests. The updated kitchen shines with granite countertops, stylish cabinetry, and modern appliances. The additional living area offers a cozy gas/electric fireplace and direct access to the backyard, creating the perfect space to unwind. Recent upgrades include new windows, doors, and updated outlets, providing peace of mind and added efficiency. Stay comfortable year-round with a swamp cooler for the warmer months. The home offers two well-sized guest bedrooms served by a full bathroom featuring a jetted tub. The spacious primary suite is a true retreat, complete with an oversized closet and a private en suite bath. With thoughtful updates, flexible living spaces, and a desirable location, this home is an exceptional opportunity you won’t want to miss!

13. 2021-09-02
    status Pending
14. 2021-08-16
    listed $425,000 Active
15. 2009-12-05
    listed $128,500
16. 2000-10-11
    listed $199,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NM · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,109 · $259/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,800 · $317/mo
• Expected delta: +$691/yr (+$58/mo · 22.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 4 d/yr ≥93°F today · 10 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 5/10 Major 8 unhealthy d/yr today · 8 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $36,225
• − Mortgage interest: −$26,607
• − Property taxes: −$3,109
• − Insurance: −$2,375
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,898
• − Management: −$2,898
• − Depreciation: −$13,818
• Taxable loss: −$15,481
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,715
• After-tax cash flow: $-3,042/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Los Alamos Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 3501650
• Math proficiency: 61% ▲ 14.00%
• Reading proficiency: 78% ▲ 20.00%
• Median HH income: $104,436
• Composite: 64.09/100
• National rank: #577
• State rank: #2 of 29 in NM

Livability — White Rock

• Score: 80/100
• State rank: #3
• US rank: #1794

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living D+ Crime B+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: White Rock, NM
• City population: 5,568
• Population (ZIP): 5,568

Population outlook (Los Alamos County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 17,874 people
• By 2030: 18,157 · +1.6%
• By 2040: 19,073 · +6.7%
• By 2050: 20,010 · +12.0%
• By 2075: 22,686 · +26.9%
• By 2100: 23,523 · +31.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (75%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 75% Hispanic / Latino 16% Two or more races 12% Asian 1% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 9%
• Common ancestry: Italian 5% Romanian 4% Slovak 4%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 4% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Los Alamos

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+30.2) · D 63.4% · R 33.2% · Other 3.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: +23.3pp toward D · 2008: 6.9pp · 2024: 30.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+30.2 2020: D+26.6 2016: D+20.3 2012: D+3.7 2008: D+6.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -407.00%
• Current HPI: 196.5833
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

+150.8% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-16 Contingent — Santa Fe MLS
• 2026-04-09 Listed $499,000 Santa Fe MLS
• 2021-09-02 Pending — Santa Fe MLS
• 2021-08-16 Listed $425,000 Santa Fe MLS
• 2009-12-05 Listed $128,500 Santa Fe MLS
• 2000-10-11 Listed $199,000 Santa Fe MLS

Property tax history

+7.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,109 · +3.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.