1 bd · 2.0 ba ·
825 sqft ·
Built 1977
· Condo
· Pending
· 15 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$1,505/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$393
Tax + insurance
−$228
HOA
−$379
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$316
Net cashflow
$189/mo
Annual
$2,266/yr
Cap rate
9.31%
Cash-on-cash
10.79%
DSCR
1.48
1% rule
2.01%
Cash to close
$21,000
Investor read
This is a 1-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $75k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $189 ($2k/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $75k).
It's been on market 15 days — a 2% lower offer ($74k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $74k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $519 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 86/100 on livability (#12 in FL, #360 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+.
Orange (suburban): math 46% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #43 of 73 in FL (top 59%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
Zoned schools: Ventura Elementary (math 26% / reading 34%, grade F, #1,882 of 2,144 statewide, top 88%, 596 students, 66% FRL); Colonial High (math 16% / reading 33%, grade F, #505 of 667 statewide, top 79%, 3,442 students, 62% FRL).
Zoned-school proficiency averages 27% at this address vs 48% district-wide (-21 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Orange average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
Watch-outs: property tax is 3.1% of price; HOA is 25% of rent.
Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.7%/yr); 372 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 18d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 8,053 units permitted in Orange County in 2024 (3,133 in 5+ unit buildings).
Orange County population projected at +52% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
3 sale attempts since 6y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 9.3% vs local median 3.0% in Orlando — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($57k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.
Questions for listing agent
Built in 1977 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
CashFlowRE · CFR-Z0RWN4FH7QESG2
· Data 2 days agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29