32498 Welling Blade Loop

Wesley Chapel, FL 33545

$290,990D-

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,673 sqft · Built 2026 · Land · Pending · 61 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,448/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,526
• Tax + insurance: −$287
• HOA: −$208
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$514
• Net cashflow: $-87/mo
• Annual: $-1,043/yr
• Cap rate: 5.93%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.28%
• DSCR: 0.94
• 1% rule: 0.84%
• Cash to close: $81,477

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath land listed at $291k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-87 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $276k (5.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $245k (15.9% below list).
• It's been on market 61 days — a 6% lower offer ($274k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $245k (15.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 79/100 on livability (#143 in FL, #2,137 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: commute F.
• Pasco (suburban): math 50% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #32 of 73 in FL (top 44%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Watergrass Elementary School (math 50% / reading 62%, grade C+, #832 of 2,144 statewide, top 40%, 865 students, 41% FRL); Thomas E. Weightman Middle School (math 48% / reading 53%, grade C, #246 of 571 statewide, top 44%, 1,250 students, 40% FRL); Wesley Chapel High School (math 52% / reading 58%, grade C, #135 of 667 statewide, top 20%, 1,826 students, 40% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-2.7%/yr); 588 active listings in the ZIP; 36 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 6,765 units permitted in Pasco County in 2024 (1,250 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Pasco County population projected at +29% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.9% vs local median 3.7% in Wesley Chapel — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 61 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 16% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.