32498 Welling Blade Loop · Wesley Chapel, FL 33545

$290,990

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,673 sqft · Land · 61 Days on market

Built 2026 $208/mo HOA · 8% of rent ↓ 6% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.7/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• 1% rule +3.4/10.0
• DSCR +3.4/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +1.8/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Under Construction. Discover the charm of Meadow Ridge Townhomes at Epperson, a gated, resort-style community in the heart of Wesley Chapel, FL. At the heart of the community is the 7-acre MetroLagoon, a tropical oasis that offers water slides, a swim-up bar, an activity course, and plenty of space to relax in the warm Florida sun. Exclusive Resident-Only events bring neighbors together with fun activities year-round. Beyond the community, you’re just a short drive from major attractions like the Tampa Premium Outlets, Wiregrass Mall, and The Grove, making entertainment and shopping easily accessible. Downtown Tampa, with highlights like Armature Works, Sparkman Wharf, and the Tampa R

Key facts

• Water slides
• Swim up bar
• 7 acre metrolagoon

Tags

• 7 ACRE METROLAGOON
• WATER SLIDES
• SWIM UP BAR
• ACTIVITY COURSE
• POND AND CONSERVATION LOTS
• TOP RATED SCHOOLS

🏗️ New construction. Builder plan / spec listing (the home may be to-be-built); metrics use comparable previous sales.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath land listed at $291k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-87 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $276k (5.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $245k (15.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $245k (15.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.9% vs local median 3.7% in Wesley Chapel — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 79/100 on livability (#143 in FL, #2,137 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: commute F.
• Pasco (suburban): math 50% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #32 of 73 in FL (top 44%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Watergrass Elementary School (math 50% / reading 62%, grade C+, #832 of 2,144 statewide, top 40%, 865 students, 41% FRL); Thomas E. Weightman Middle School (math 48% / reading 53%, grade C, #246 of 571 statewide, top 44%, 1,250 students, 40% FRL); Wesley Chapel High School (math 52% / reading 58%, grade C, #135 of 667 statewide, top 20%, 1,826 students, 40% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-2.7%/yr); 588 active listings in the ZIP; 36 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 6,765 units permitted in Pasco County in 2024 (1,250 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pasco County population projected at +29% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 61 days — a 6% lower offer ($274k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $244,804 (15.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 61 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 16% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.84% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.93%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.28%
• DSCR: 0.94
• GRM: 9.9

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -21.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.27×
• Total profit: $-59,821
• Equity at exit: $43,388

10-year hold

• IRR: -25.3%
• Equity multiple: -0.06×
• Total profit: $-86,772
• Equity at exit: $25,159

Cash invested: $81,477 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33545

• Home prices YoY: -17.4%
• Rents YoY: -2.7%
• Active inventory: 588
• Price-to-rent: 9.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,448 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,526
• Tax from tax record: −$166 /mo · $1,988/yr
• Insurance: −$121
• HOA: −$208
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$514
• Net cashflow: $-87

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,558

Max offer price $275,631

Occupancy floor 99%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $78	-5% $-5	+0% $-87	+5% $-169	+10% $-252
Rent	-10% $-280	-5% $-184	+0% $-87	+5% $10	+10% $106
Rate	-1.0pp $60	-0.5pp $-13	base $-87	+0.5pp $-162	+1.0pp $-239

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $72,748
• Closing costs: $8,730
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 36 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
32492 Welling Blade Loop Wesley Chapel, FL	3.0	2.5	1758	$2,295	$1.31	12d	1	0.02mi
32519 Welling Blade Loop Wesley Chapel, FL	3.0	2.5	1673	$2,500	$1.49	11d	1	0.05mi
7919 Dynamic Blvd Wesley Chapel, FL	2.0	2.0	1180	$2,052	$1.74	1d	1	0.23mi
31535 Blue Passing Loop Wesley Chapel, FL	3.0	2.5	1597	$2,099	$1.31	26d	1	0.26mi
7852 Tranquility Loop Wesley Chapel, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1068	$2,279	$2.13	0d	29	0.27mi
8069 Rolling Shell Trl Wesley Chapel, FL	3.0	2.5	1760	$2,200	$1.25	26d	1	0.28mi
31993 Blue Passing Loop Wesley Chapel, FL	3.0	2.5	1807	$2,300	$1.27	19d	1	0.32mi
32312 Turtle Grace Loop Wesley Chapel, FL	3.0	2.5	1673	$2,300	$1.37	3d	1	0.35mi
31632 Blue Passing Loop Wesley Chapel, FL	3.0	2.5	1600	$2,650	$1.66	19d	1	0.35mi
32311 Turtle Grace Loop Wesley Chapel, FL	3.0	2.5	1673	$2,500	$1.49	23d	1	0.36mi
31641 Blue Passing Loop Unit Epperson Logoon Wesley Chapel, FL	3.0	2.5	1760	$2,250	$1.28	6d	1	0.37mi
32323 Turtle Grace Loop Wesley Chapel, FL	3.0	2.5	1673	$1,980	$1.18	26d	1	0.37mi
32389 Turtle Grace Loop Wesley Chapel, FL	3.0	2.5	1673	$2,400	$1.43	25d	1	0.39mi
31700 Blue Passing Loop Wesley Chapel, FL	3.0	2.5	1807	$2,245	$1.24	6d	1	0.39mi
31700 Blue Passing Loop Wesley Chapel, FL	3.0	2.5	1807	$2,245	$1.24	1d	1	0.39mi
32257 Snowberry Way Wesley Chapel, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1030	$2,113	$2.05	0d	24	0.44mi
7618 Momentum Pkwy Wesley Chapel, FL	3.0	2.5	1566	$2,200	$1.40	19d	1	0.46mi
31825 Lily Arbor Way Wesley Chapel, FL	4.0	2.0	2155	$2,600	$1.21	26d	1	0.55mi
7273 Notched Pine Bnd Wesley Chapel, FL	3.0	3.5	2143	$3,600	$1.68	23d	1	0.89mi
31742 Sun Kettle Loop Wesley Chapel, FL	4.0	2.0	1939	$2,500	$1.29	26d	1	0.93mi
8318 Claw Glades Loop Wesley Chapel, FL	4.0	2.0	1846	$2,450	$1.33	16d	1	0.94mi
7278 Pool Compass Loop Wesley Chapel, FL	3.0	2.0	2096	$3,299	$1.57	26d	1	0.94mi
31454 Barrel Wave Way Wesley Chapel, FL	4.0	2.5	1870	$2,799	$1.50	26d	1	0.95mi
31364 Midnight Sun Way Wesley Chapel, FL	3.0	2.5	1673	$1,995	$1.19	13d	1	1.08mi
31364 Midnight Sun Way Wesley Chapel, FL	3.0	3.0	1673	$1,995	$1.19	22d	1	1.08mi
31365 Paper Birch St Wesley Chapel, FL	3.0	2.0	1463	$2,300	$1.57	16d	1	1.10mi
31351 Paper Birch St Wesley Chapel, FL	3.0	2.0	1463	$2,400	$1.64	22d	1	1.11mi
7507 Canal Point Ct Wesley Chapel, FL	4.0	3.0	1831	$2,400	$1.31	26d	1	1.11mi
31325 Midnight Sun Way Unit 1 Wesley Chapel, FL	3.0	2.5	1673	$2,000	$1.20	26d	1	1.12mi
31352 Golden Gate Dr Wesley Chapel, FL	3.0	2.5	1640	$2,550	$1.55	13d	1	1.15mi
7046 Penta Pl Wesley Chapel, FL	3.0	2.5	1719	$3,000	$1.75	26d	1	1.15mi
31276 Paper Birch St Wesley Chapel, FL	3.0	2.5	1463	$2,000	$1.37	26d	1	1.16mi
31422 Bridgegate Dr Wesley Chapel, FL	4.0	3.0	2153	$2,700	$1.25	26d	1	1.27mi
9610 Rally Spring Loop Wesley Chapel, FL	3.0	2.0	2020	$2,750	$1.36	6d	1	1.38mi
30950 Parrot Reef Ct Wesley Chapel, FL	3.0	2.0	2099	$3,100	$1.48	19d	1	1.38mi
9493 Rally Spring Loop Wesley Chapel, FL	4.0	3.0	2207	$2,500	$1.13	23d	1	1.40mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $208 · $2,496/yr
• Likely covers: watersecurity

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-04-03
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-01
   price $290,990
3. 2026-02-24
   price $289,990
4. 2026-02-04
   price $312,490
5. 2026-02-01
   listed $310,490 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,988 · $166/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,415 · $201/mo
• Expected delta: +$427/yr (+$36/mo · 21.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $29,376
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,300
• − Property taxes: −$1,988
• − Insurance: −$1,455
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,350
• − Management: −$2,350
• − HOA: −$2,496
• − Depreciation: −$8,465
• Taxable loss: −$6,028
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,447
• After-tax cash flow: $403/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pasco
• NCES district ID: 1201530
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $45,039
• Composite: 43.14/100
• National rank: #3074
• State rank: #32 of 73 in FL

Livability — Wesley Chapel

• Score: 79/100
• State rank: #143
• US rank: #2137

Category grades

Amenities C Commute F Cost of living B- Crime A- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Wesley Chapel, FL
• County: Pasco County · 524,098 people
• City population: 100,771
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• Population (ZIP): 30,222
• Household income: $118,889
• Rent vs Own: 17.3% rent · 82.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 287.0

Population outlook (Pasco County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 570,045 people
• By 2030: 605,844 · +6.3%
• By 2040: 674,806 · +18.4%
• By 2050: 736,022 · +29.1%
• By 2075: 862,900 · +51.4%
• By 2100: 906,364 · +59.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.68)
• Race & ethnicity: White 45% Hispanic / Latino 30% Two or more races 20% Black 14% Asian 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 10% Cuban 2% Dominican 3%
• Common ancestry: Hispanic 2% Romanian 2% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 16% · Canada, Vietnam, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 74% English-only · Spanish 17% Other Indo-European 3% French/Haitian/Cajun 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Pasco

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+25.2) · D 36.9% · R 62.1% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.6pp toward R · 2008: -3.6pp · 2024: -25.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+25.2 2020: R+20.1 2016: R+21.6 2012: R+6.7 2008: R+3.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -57.59%
• Current HPI: 273.0769
• Rent YoY: ▼ -2.68%
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-6.3% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-03 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-01 Price Changed $290,990 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-24 Price Changed $289,990 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-04 Price Changed $312,490 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-01 Listed $310,490 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+13.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,988 · +24.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.