2498 Salt Point Tpke

Salt Point, NY 12514

$875,000A-

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,606 sqft · Built 1820 · SingleFamily · Active · 11 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $13,628/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$4,589
• Tax + insurance: −$1,271
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$2,862
• Net cashflow: $4,906/mo
• Annual: $58,873/yr
• Cap rate: 13.02%
• Cash-on-cash: 24.03%
• DSCR: 2.07
• 1% rule: 1.56%
• Cash to close: $245,000

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $875k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $5k ($59k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($14k rent vs $875k).
• Only 11 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• In year one you build about $94k of equity ($6k loan paydown + $88k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 34/100 on livability (#1,193 in NY) — a limited-amenity area; tenant pool skews transient or value-seeking. Strengths: crime A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Millbrook Central School District (rural): math 65% / reading 63% proficiency, ranked #198 of 755 in NY (top 26%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 17% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Elm Drive Elementary School (192 students, 22% FRL); Millbrook Middle School (math 42% / reading 67%, grade B-, #214 of 729 statewide, top 31%, 202 students, 37% FRL); Millbrook High School (math 87%, 271 students, 34% FRL).
• Watch-outs: built in 1820 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 38 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 620 units permitted in Dutchess County in 2024 (242 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Dutchess County population projected at -11% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• Current owner paid $466k; list at $875k implies a 88% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $245k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$150k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Cap rate 13.0% vs local median 2.3% in Salt Point — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• Built in 1820 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.