2498 Salt Point Tpke · Salt Point, NY 12514

$875,000

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,606 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 10 Days on market

Built 1820 1.76 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the A- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Livability +1.7/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

This enchanting circa-1820 farmhouse embodies the quintessential Hudson Valley lifestyle. Thoughtfully updated with historic preservation in mind, the home offers 2,606 square feet of living space with four bedrooms, three full baths, and a thoughtful layout that combines comfort and functionality. A covered front porch leads to inviting interiors where historic details have been preserved, including wide-board pine floors, original doors, and period hardware. The main level includes a gracious living room with fireplace, formal dining room with direct access to the patio, cozy den, and a spacious family room with a second fireplace. The eat-in kitchen serves as the heart of the home, featuring a farmhouse sink, marble countertops, butcher block island, and access to the outdoor living spaces. A butler's pantry with an additional sink and dishwasher enhances functionality, while a full bath and laundry room with sauna complete the first floor. Upstairs, the primary suite includes a private bath with a soaking tub. Two additional bedrooms share a full hall bath, while a fourth bedroom accessed by a separate staircase provides a degree of separation ideal for guests, a home office, or other flexible use. Outside, mature landscaping, beautiful stonework, and established gardens create an idyllic country setting. Enjoy morning coffee from the front porch, gather with friends on the patios, or spend warm summer days by the pool, with its heating system extending the season well into autumn. A classic bank barn with two lower-level garage bays and an upper level with soaring ceilings adds endless potential for entertaining, recreation, or creative use. Steeped in history and full of charm, this special property offers a rare opportunity to enjoy timeless farmhouse living in the heart of the Hudson Valley, just minutes from Millbrook, Rhinebeck, and the Taconic State Parkway.

Key facts

• 1.76 acre lot
• Garage
• Pool

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway; 1-car garage
• Utilities: Septic system; Private trash collection
• Home design: Single family residence
• Construction: Clapboard exterior; Unfinished basement; Unfinished attic
• Exterior features: Back yard; Landscaped grounds; Private in-ground vinyl pool with electric heat

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Gas range; Refrigerator; Kitchen island; Marble countertops; Pantry; Eat-in kitchen
• Bedrooms: Total rooms: 10 (bedroom breakdown not specified)
• Flooring: Tile; Wood
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Oil heating; No central air
• Interior features: First-floor full bathroom; Beamed ceilings; Eat-in kitchen; Entrance foyer; Formal dining room; Kitchen island; Marble countertops; Pantry; Primary bathroom with soaking tub; Sauna; Patio; Porch
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; Dedicated laundry room

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $875k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $5k ($59k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($14k rent vs $875k).
• Cap rate 13.0% vs local median 2.3% in Salt Point — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 34/100 on livability (#1,193 in NY) — a limited-amenity area; tenant pool skews transient or value-seeking. Strengths: crime A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Millbrook Central School District (rural): math 65% / reading 63% proficiency, ranked #198 of 755 in NY (top 26%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 17% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Elm Drive Elementary School (192 students, 22% FRL); Millbrook Middle School (math 42% / reading 67%, grade B-, #214 of 729 statewide, top 31%, 202 students, 37% FRL); Millbrook High School (math 87%, 271 students, 34% FRL).
• Market conditions: 38 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 620 units permitted in Dutchess County in 2024 (242 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $94k of equity ($6k loan paydown + $88k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Dutchess County population projected at -11% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $245k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$150k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 10 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Current owner paid $466k; list at $875k implies a 88% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1820 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $875,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1820 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.56% ✓
• Cap rate: 13.02%
• Cash-on-cash: 24.03%
• DSCR: 2.07
• GRM: 5.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $515,988
• Comps found: 3

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2415 Salt Point Tpke	0.38mi	5/3.0 (+1)	2,784 (+7%)	17mo	$550,000	$198	52
391 Clinton Corners Rd	0.67mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,536 (-3%)	7mo	$889,000	$351	51
2377 Salt Point Tpke	0.54mi	3/1.0 (-1)	2,296 (-12%)	24mo	$254,900	$111	22

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 42.3%
• Equity multiple: 4.22×
• Total profit: $789,108
• Equity at exit: $788,269

10-year hold

• IRR: 36.6%
• Equity multiple: 9.48×
• Total profit: $2,078,249
• Equity at exit: $1,699,933

Cash invested: $245,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 12514

• Home prices YoY: 11.6%
• Active inventory: 38
• Price-to-rent: 5.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $13,628 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$4,589
• Tax from tax record: −$907 /mo · $10,883/yr
• Insurance: −$365
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$2,862
• Net cashflow: $4,906

Break-even live

Break-even rent $7,418

Max offer price $875,000

Occupancy floor 59%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $5,401	-5% $5,154	+0% $4,906	+5% $4,658	+10% $4,411
Rent	-10% $3,829	-5% $4,368	+0% $4,906	+5% $5,444	+10% $5,983
Rate	-1.0pp $5,347	-0.5pp $5,129	base $4,906	+0.5pp $4,679	+1.0pp $4,449

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $218,750
• Closing costs: $26,250
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1539 Hollow Rd Clinton Corners, NY	4.0	2.0	1946	$3,500	$1.80	15d	1	1.28mi
1282 Hollow Rd Clinton Corners, NY	4.0	3.5	2650	$22,000	$8.30	14d	1	1.39mi

Listing history 9 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $875,000 Active 10 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $875,000 Active 8 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $875,000 Active 7 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $875,000 Active 6 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $875,000 Active 5 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $875,000 Active 3 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   statusdays on market $875,000 Active 2 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   remarks 699-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1901 chars)

   This enchanting circa-1820 farmhouse embodies the quintessential Hudson Valley lifestyle. Thoughtfully updated with historic preservation in mind, the home offers 2,606 square feet of living space with four bedrooms, three full baths, and a thoughtful layout that combines comfort and functionality. A covered front porch leads to inviting interiors where historic details have been preserved, including wide-board pine floors, original doors, and period hardware. The main level includes a gracious living room with fireplace, formal dining room with direct access to the patio, cozy den, and a spacious family room with a second fireplace. The eat-in kitchen serves as the heart of the home, featuring a farmhouse sink, marble countertops, butcher block island, and access to the outdoor living spaces. A butler's pantry with an additional sink and dishwasher enhances functionality, while a full bath and laundry room with sauna complete the first floor. Upstairs, the primary suite includes a private bath with a soaking tub. Two additional bedrooms share a full hall bath, while a fourth bedroom accessed by a separate staircase provides a degree of separation ideal for guests, a home office, or other flexible use. Outside, mature landscaping, beautiful stonework, and established gardens create an idyllic country setting. Enjoy morning coffee from the front porch, gather with friends on the patios, or spend warm summer days by the pool, with its heating system extending the season well into autumn. A classic bank barn with two lower-level garage bays and an upper level with soaring ceilings adds endless potential for entertaining, recreation, or creative use. Steeped in history and full of charm, this special property offers a rare opportunity to enjoy timeless farmhouse living in the heart of the Hudson Valley, just minutes from Millbrook, Rhinebeck, and the Taconic State Parkway.

9. 2026-06-09
   listed $875,000 Coming Soon 1 DOM

   Show marketing remark (1901 chars)

   This enchanting circa-1820 farmhouse embodies the quintessential Hudson Valley lifestyle. Thoughtfully updated with historic preservation in mind, the home offers 2,606 square feet of living space with four bedrooms, three full baths, and a thoughtful layout that combines comfort and functionality. A covered front porch leads to inviting interiors where historic details have been preserved, including wide-board pine floors, original doors, and period hardware. The main level includes a gracious living room with fireplace, formal dining room with direct access to the patio, cozy den, and a spacious family room with a second fireplace. The eat-in kitchen serves as the heart of the home, featuring a farmhouse sink, marble countertops, butcher block island, and access to the outdoor living spaces. A butler's pantry with an additional sink and dishwasher enhances functionality, while a full bath and laundry room with sauna complete the first floor. Upstairs, the primary suite includes a private bath with a soaking tub. Two additional bedrooms share a full hall bath, while a fourth bedroom accessed by a separate staircase provides a degree of separation ideal for guests, a home office, or other flexible use. Outside, mature landscaping, beautiful stonework, and established gardens create an idyllic country setting. Enjoy morning coffee from the front porch, gather with friends on the patios, or spend warm summer days by the pool, with its heating system extending the season well into autumn. A classic bank barn with two lower-level garage bays and an upper level with soaring ceilings adds endless potential for entertaining, recreation, or creative use. Steeped in history and full of charm, this special property offers a rare opportunity to enjoy timeless farmhouse living in the heart of the Hudson Valley, just minutes from Millbrook, Rhinebeck, and the Taconic State Parkway.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $10,883 · $907/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $12,835 · $1,070/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,952/yr (+$163/mo · 17.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥98°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 12% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $163,536
• − Mortgage interest: −$49,014
• − Property taxes: −$10,883
• − Insurance: −$4,375
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$13,083
• − Management: −$13,083
• − Depreciation: −$25,455
• Taxable income: $47,644
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$11,435
• After-tax cash flow: $47,438/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Millbrook Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3619380
• Math proficiency: 65% ▲ 1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 63% ▲ 5.00%
• Median HH income: $77,504
• Composite: 58.47/100
• National rank: #2061
• State rank: #198 of 755 in NY

Livability — Salt Point

• Score: 34/100
• State rank: #1193
• US rank: #27748

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C+ Crime A Employment F Housing F Health & safety D- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 2,306
• Population (ZIP): 3,120

Population outlook (Dutchess County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 291,768 people
• By 2030: 287,131 · -1.6%
• By 2040: 274,881 · -5.8%
• By 2050: 259,971 · -10.9%
• By 2075: 235,366 · -19.3%
• By 2100: 208,786 · -28.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (94%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 94% Hispanic / Latino 3% Two or more races 2% Asian 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 5% Portuguese 4% Scotch-Irish 3%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Other Asian/Pacific 1% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% Other Indo-European 0%

Political lean MEDSL · Dutchess

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.4) · D 52.7% · R 47.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.2pp toward R · 2008: 8.6pp · 2024: 5.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.4 2020: D+9.6 2016: R+1.1 2012: D+6.6 2008: D+8.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 31.24%
• Current HPI: 300.533
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+641.5% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-09 Coming Soon $875,000 HVCRMLS
• 2026-06-09 Coming Soon $875,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2012-09-21 Sold (MLS) $466,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2012-06-28 Listed $495,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1983-08-05 Sold (Public Records) $118,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $10,883 · -3.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.