12712 Grosstown Rd

Bryantown, MD 20637

$405,000D

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,352 sqft · Built 1971 · SingleFamily · Active · 35 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,816/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,124
• Tax + insurance: −$525
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$591
• Net cashflow: $-425/mo
• Annual: $-5,097/yr
• Cap rate: 5.03%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.49%
• DSCR: 0.80
• 1% rule: 0.70%
• Cash to close: $113,400

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $405k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-425 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $330k (18.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $282k (30.5% below list).
• It's been on market 35 days — a 3% lower offer ($393k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $282k (30.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-1.5%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#361 in MD) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Charles County Public Schools (suburban): math 13% / reading 29% proficiency, ranked #14 of 24 in MD (top 58%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: La Plata High School (math 51% / reading 74%, grade B-, #62 of 222 statewide, top 29%, 1,222 students, 25% FRL) — zoned schools at 25% FRL track the district average.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 62% at this address vs 21% district-wide (+42 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Charles County Public Schools average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: 40 active listings in the ZIP; 1,542 units permitted in Charles County in 2024 (516 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Charles County population projected at +27% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 2 sale attempts since 3y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.0% vs local median 2.6% in Bryantown — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 35 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 30% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1971 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.