12712 Grosstown Rd · Bryantown, MD 20637

$405,000

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,352 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 35 Days on market

Built 1971 1.00 ac lot $300/sqft · 15% below area Est $478k · 15% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +14.4/15.0
• Cash flow +7.9/30.0
• Appreciation +4.2/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.3/10.0
• 1% rule +2.0/10.0
• DSCR +2.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Updated 3 bedroom, 1.5 bathroom rambler on 1 acre. NEW roof, NEW siding, NEW windows, NEW luxury vinyl flooring, NEW HVAC, NEW Kitchen, & NEW bathrooms, now let's make this your NEW home! Walk into an open-concept living room, dining area, and kitchen. Off the main living area step down to an additional living space that leads out to the patio area. The updated kitchen includes new cabinets, granite countertops, and appliances. Great location with easy access to Rt. 5 & Rt. 6

Key facts

• 1 acre lot
• Built 1971
• Listed 34 days

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Fee simple ownership

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway
• Utilities: Well water; On-site septic
• Home design: Detached home; Above-grade finished living space
• Construction: Block foundation; Block and vinyl siding construction
• Exterior features: Detached structure; No tidal water

Interior

• Bedrooms: Three bedrooms on the main level
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom; One half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Heat pump heating; Central air conditioning; Electric heating and cooling; Electric hot water
• Interior features: Assessor-provided living area; One fireplace

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $405k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-425 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $330k (18.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $282k (30.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $282k (30.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.0% vs local median 2.6% in Bryantown — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#361 in MD) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Charles County Public Schools (suburban): math 13% / reading 29% proficiency, ranked #14 of 24 in MD (top 58%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: La Plata High School (math 51% / reading 74%, grade B-, #62 of 222 statewide, top 29%, 1,222 students, 25% FRL) — zoned schools at 25% FRL track the district average.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 62% at this address vs 21% district-wide (+42 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Charles County Public Schools average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: 40 active listings in the ZIP; 1,542 units permitted in Charles County in 2024 (516 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-1.5%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Charles County population projected at +27% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 35 days — a 3% lower offer ($393k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 3y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $281,550 (30.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 35 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 30% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1971 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.70% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.03%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.49%
• DSCR: 0.80
• GRM: 12.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $477,732
• List price: $405,000
• Delta: -15.22%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 5 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-1.54% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -14.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.41×
• Total profit: $-67,303
• Equity at exit: $87,435

10-year hold

• IRR: -7.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.38×
• Total profit: $-70,416
• Equity at exit: $83,277

Cash invested: $113,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 27 Tenant-Leaning
• State Maryland: 27 Tenant-Leaning · D+14
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Failure-to-pay is dismissed if cured before judgment; Baltimore has just-cause; strict deposit rules.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 20637

• Home prices YoY: -0.6%
• Active inventory: 40
• Price-to-rent: 12.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,816 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,124
• Tax from tax record: −$356 /mo · $4,276/yr
• Insurance: −$169
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$591
• Net cashflow: $-425

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,353

Max offer price $329,970

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $101,250
• Closing costs: $12,150
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $405,000 Active 35 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   pricedays on market $405,000 Active 34 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $410,000 Active 33 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $410,000 Active 32 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $410,000 Active 30 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $410,000 Active 26 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $410,000 Active 25 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $410,000 Active 24 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $410,000 Active 21 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $410,000 Active 20 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $410,000 Active 19 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $410,000 Active 18 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $410,000 Active 17 DOM
14. 2026-05-15
    listed $410,000 Active 862-char remark
15. 2026-05-09
    historical $410,000 862-char remark
16. 2023-04-26
    soldstatus $380,625
17. 2023-04-19
    soldstatus $380,625 Closed 491-char remark

    Show marketing remark (491 chars)

    Updated 3 bedroom, 1.5 bathroom rambler on 1 acre. NEW roof, NEW siding, NEW windows, NEW luxury vinyl flooring, NEW HVAC, NEW Kitchen, & NEW bathrooms, now let's make this your NEW home! Walk into an open-concept living room, dining area, and kitchen. Off the main living area step down to an additional living space that leads out to the patio area. The updated kitchen includes new cabinets, granite countertops, and appliances. Great location with easy access to Rt. 5 & Rt. 6

18. 2023-03-14
    status Pending 491-char remark

    Show marketing remark (491 chars)

    Updated 3 bedroom, 1.5 bathroom rambler on 1 acre. NEW roof, NEW siding, NEW windows, NEW luxury vinyl flooring, NEW HVAC, NEW Kitchen, & NEW bathrooms, now let's make this your NEW home! Walk into an open-concept living room, dining area, and kitchen. Off the main living area step down to an additional living space that leads out to the patio area. The updated kitchen includes new cabinets, granite countertops, and appliances. Great location with easy access to Rt. 5 & Rt. 6

19. 2023-03-03
    listed $375,000 Active 491-char remark

    Show marketing remark (491 chars)

    Updated 3 bedroom, 1.5 bathroom rambler on 1 acre. NEW roof, NEW siding, NEW windows, NEW luxury vinyl flooring, NEW HVAC, NEW Kitchen, & NEW bathrooms, now let's make this your NEW home! Walk into an open-concept living room, dining area, and kitchen. Off the main living area step down to an additional living space that leads out to the patio area. The updated kitchen includes new cabinets, granite countertops, and appliances. Great location with easy access to Rt. 5 & Rt. 6

20. 1990-11-26
    soldstatus $120,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MD · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $4,276 · $356/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,345 · $362/mo
• Expected delta: +$69/yr (+$6/mo · 1.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥103°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $33,786
• − Mortgage interest: −$22,686
• − Property taxes: −$4,276
• − Insurance: −$2,025
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,703
• − Management: −$2,703
• − Depreciation: −$11,782
• Taxable loss: −$12,389
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,973
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,123/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Charles County Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 2400270
• Math proficiency: 13% ▼ -19.00%
• Reading proficiency: 29% ▼ -13.00%
• Median HH income: $90,389
• Composite: 22.54/100
• National rank: #8087
• State rank: #14 of 24 in MD

Livability — Bryantown

• Score: 59/100
• State rank: #361
• US rank: #19609

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 368
• Population (ZIP): 6,337

Population outlook (Charles County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 176,616 people
• By 2030: 186,471 · +5.6%
• By 2040: 206,472 · +16.9%
• By 2050: 224,883 · +27.3%
• By 2075: 272,101 · +54.1%
• By 2100: 303,564 · +71.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.57)
• Race & ethnicity: White 58% Black 29% Two or more races 9% Hispanic / Latino 3% Asian 2%
• Common ancestry: Italian 3% Slovak 2% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Charles

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+40.7) · D 69.2% · R 28.5% · Other 2.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +15.2pp toward D · 2008: 25.5pp · 2024: 40.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+40.7 2020: D+40.9 2016: D+30.2 2012: D+31.3 2008: D+25.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -1.54%
• Current HPI: 242.7657
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.97%
• F500 in state: 12

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MD)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	1	$71B
▸Utilities	1	$25B
▸Hotels	1	$24B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$7B
▸Real Estate	1	$6B
▸Chemicals	1	$2B

Price history

+237.5% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-16 Price Changed $405,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-05-15 Listed $410,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-05-09 Coming Soon $410,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2023-04-26 Sold (Public Records) $380,625 Public Records
• 2023-04-19 Sold (MLS) $380,625 BRIGHT MLS
• 2023-03-14 Pending — BRIGHT MLS
• 2023-03-03 Listed $375,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 1990-11-26 Sold (Public Records) $120,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+6.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,276 · +14.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.