2226 N Ellis Ave

Peoria, IL 61604

$41,000B+

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 832 sqft · Built 1925 · SingleFamily · Active · 85 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $980/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$215
• Tax + insurance: −$84
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$206
• Net cashflow: $475/mo
• Annual: $5,703/yr
• Cap rate: 20.20%
• Cash-on-cash: 49.68%
• DSCR: 3.21
• 1% rule: 2.39%
• Cash to close: $11,480

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $41k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $475 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($980 rent vs $41k).
• It's been on market 85 days — a 6% lower offer ($39k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $39k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $283 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#270 in IL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D+, schools F, crime F.
• Peoria SD 150 (urban): math 11% / reading 14% proficiency, ranked #554 of 620 in IL (top 89%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 70% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Watch-outs: built in 1925 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.3%/yr); 180 active listings in the ZIP; 19 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 53% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 73 units permitted in Peoria County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Peoria County population projected at -11% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 5 sale attempts since 24y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $9k (18%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $27k; list at $41k implies a 52% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 2.3% rent growth), your $11k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Cap rate 20.2% vs local median 5.6% in Peoria — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 85 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1925 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.